David Lennon: Dodgers acquire two-time Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal from Tigers as rich get richer
Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal acknowledges the fans after recording his 1,000th strikeout during the first inning against the Baltimore Orioles on Wednesday in Detroit. Credit: Getty Images/Duane Burleson
In the least surprising development of this trade deadline weekend, the winner of the Tarik Skubal sweepstakes turned out to be . . . (drum roll) . . . the Dodgers.
Who could have guessed that the back-to-back World Series champions, with the sport’s highest payroll ($400 million) and one of the deepest farm systems, was going to do whatever was necessary to land the biggest prize available?
The outcome not only was painfully obvious but truly felt inevitable, much like the Dodgers’ now-greatly-improved chances to become the first three-peat champion since the 1998-2000 Yankees. A few minutes before midnight Saturday, the Tigers agreed to send Skubal to Los Angeles for three high-level prospects, including two ranked in the top 100 as evaluated by MLB Pipeline, sources confirmed.
So what was the going rate for a two-month rental of the reigning back-to-back American League Cy Young Award winner? Detroit got back Double-A outfielder Zyhir Hope, currently ranked No. 25 among all MLB prospects; Triple-A righthander River Ryan (No. 68) and High-A righthander Brady Smith (the Dodgers’ 17th-ranked prospect).
Talk about your super-rotations. Even with Shohei Ohtani limited to DH duties because of knee and biceps issues, The Dodgers have Skubal, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Justin Wrobleski as their top three, with two-time Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow on the horizon. As much as MLB’s owners already were using the Dodgers as Exhibit A for a salary cap, adding Skubal is only going to further stoke those fires among the fans, as well as the other competing clubs.
In addition to fortifying the Dodgers’ odds for another title, settling the Skubal derby late Saturday night should free up the rest of the market for starting pitchers. With little time left before Monday’s 6 p.m. deadline, rotation-hungry clubs that lost out — such as the Brewers, Cubs, Rays, Phillies, Padres and Atlanta — will pounce on the remaining inventory.
That’s especially good news for the Mets, who have been sitting on Freddy Peralta and Clay Holmes while waiting for clubs to meet their asking prices, believed to be a top-100 pick for each.
As for the Tigers, they’ll be asking themselves if they made the right decision by refusing to trade Skubal this past winter while trying to capitalize on their thrilling late-season joyride from 2025. Surrendering their ace before Opening Day the following year would have been unforgivable to some, but many still thought it would have been a better strategy to maximize their return.
That said, dealing Skubal now was the only logical course of action. The idea of letting a rare pitching jewel simply walk away and leave the Tigers with nothing more than a compensation draft pick would be a dereliction of duty for Detroit’s front office.
As for where the Tigers stood in a weak American League? At the time of Saturday night’s trade, they were six games under .500 (52-58) but only three games behind the Guardians and Twins for the third wild-card spot, with three teams between the two. If you choose to play the percentages, as modern analytically-driven general managers do, the Tigers — with Skubal — had a 27.9% chance of making the postseason, according to FanGraphs, with a 2.5% chance of winning the World Series.
A more recent snapshot paints a somewhat rosier outlook, as the Tigers were tied with the Cubs for MLB’s fourth-best record since June 1 at 30-20, only one win short of the Dodgers (31-20) during that stretch.
Of course, that was boosted by Skubal’s June 13 return from a surgical procedure to remove a bone chip from his elbow, which doesn’t seem to have hindered him in the slightest.
Through those nine starts, Skubal has a 2.87 ERA, and among starters with a minimum of 50 innings during that span, he ranks second in WHIP (0.88), fifth in K/9 rate (11.98) and fifth in opponents’ batting average (.198).
Once Skubal proved he’s back to his usual Cy Young-caliber status again, the 29-year-old lefty stood as the biggest game-changer at this deadline. Frankly, that’s why the Dodgers were always considered the favorites to land him.
It’s never about the regular season for the NL West-leading Dodgers, who brought an 11-game lead on the second-place Diamondbacks into Saturday but still need to fend off the feisty Brewers for the NL’s top seed. Los Angeles trailed Milwaukee by a half-game after Saturday’s action.
The Dodgers are always thinking October — most of their stellar rotation usually rehabs until the playoffs anyway — but with Ohtani’s nagging knee issue and biceps discomfort, his mound future is in serious doubt.
Enter Skubal, along with the Dodgers’ willingness to double-down (i.e., giving Kyle Tucker a record four-year, $240 million deal) despite already spending more than $400 million on this year’s pursuit of a three-peat.
With baseball heading into a bitter labor battle, a prolonged lockout and perhaps a future with revolutionary payroll restrictions, this could be one of the Dodgers’ last chances to flex their unrivaled financial might. Also, they didn’t blink at taking on the $9 million that Skubal is due for the remainder this season. Remember, he was awarded a record $32 million in arbitration last February.
“I think our mindset is, there aren’t that many star players in the game,” Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told reporters this past week. “And any time one is available, we’re always going to participate in those conversations.”
That’s a scary statement for the rest of MLB to hear, but hardly shocking. The Dodgers operate as if they want all of the star players — collecting them like baseball cards — and it’s not just about their unlimited financial resources.
The Dodgers’ stacked farm system was ranked second by MLB Pipeline at the start of the season, with nine top-100 prospects, and it seems as if they’re constantly reloading, so spending a chunk of that talent capital for Skubal wasn’t something they’d flinch at.
That’s why it was difficult for the other contenders to beat out the Dodgers — and even more imperative for them to try.
Take the Brewers, for example. Just the idea of taking on another $9 million for small-market Milwaukee, which already has a $147 million payroll, was no small decision, but the Brewers reportedly were willing to do so. They also had the sport’s top-rated farm system, according to MLB Pipeline, with five top-100 prospects (two previous entries already are in the majors: Cooper Pratt and former Met Brandon Sproat).
No doubt people in Milwaukee envisioned Skubal having an impact similar to what CC Sabathia had for the Brewers’ stretch run in 2008, when the future Hall of Famer went 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA and averaged more than seven innings in those 17 starts.
Like Sabathia that season, Skubal is pitching for his next contract, and with agent Scott Boras running point, he’ll be aiming for a record deal, somewhere well above $300 million.
The Yankees reportedly had strong interest in Skubal and were involved in the bidding until its final stages, but they have plenty of other needs, making him more of a luxury purchase. Still, general manager Brian Cashman loves making a strength even stronger when it comes to starting pitching. He did it by giving Max Fried a $218 million contract after losing out on Juan Soto (good thing, too, as Gerrit Cole was lost before Opening Day to Tommy John surgery in 2025).
But now that Cole and Fried have been reunited in the rotation, as originally planned, and Cam Schlittler has become the favorite for the American League Cy Young Award, the Yankees are better off prioritizing help for a sputtering lineup and thin bullpen.
Presumably, Aaron Judge (rib stress fracture) will be back at some point. But with the best-case scenario now looking like September — and there’s no guarantee of that, either — Cashman has to at least consider an impactful bat or two, especially with Giancarlo Stanton (calf strain) in limbo. Cody Bellinger’s hamstring strain hurts for now, but he should return for the stretch run.
Even if the Yankees do make the moves that facilitate another trip to the World Series, they’ll have to worry about Skubal waiting for them in a potential rematch against the Dodgers — making L.A. even more difficult to topple this time around.
David Lennon is an award-winning columnist, a voter for baseball's Hall of Fame and has covered six no-hitters, including two perfect games.
