After slow starts, who's in worse shape: Mets or Yanks? 

In early February, when the Mets and Yankees were dotting the i’s and crossing the t’s on their record offseason spending sprees, it was easy to imagine both teams winding up in the World Series at the end of October.

Here in early May, the reality is something very different.

The Mets and Yankees are in similar places, all right. Through Friday, that was one game over .500 (17-16) after a disappointing week that prompted each of their general managers to hold news conferences designed in part to quell the panic among their restless fan bases.

“Don’t give up on us,” Yankees GM Brian Cashman said. “Don’t count us out.”

No rational person would eliminate the Yankees from playoff contention before Memorial Day, even if the Bronx basement-dwellers did fall an alarming 10 games behind the first-place Rays with Friday’s 5-4 loss at Tropicana Field. The Mets’ early predicament within a less-stressful NL East isn’t quite as dire — their deficit was half that behind front-running Atlanta — but the performance of Buck Showalter’s team has been uninspiring to say the least.

“I believe in this roster,” Mets GM Billy Eppler said before Friday’s 1-0 win over the Rockies. “I believe in this team, the players that are here. There’s too much track record. There’s too much these guys have accomplished. There’s too much know-how.”

And that’s where the Mets and Yankees have taken divergent paths to the same disappointing record. As Eppler said, he still has his core group intact in Flushing, especially from an offensive standpoint. Yes, the Mets have 11 players on the injured list, a total that’s second only to the Yankees’ dozen, but the most significant bats on the shelf are Omar Narvaez and Tim Locastro.

Also, now that Justin Verlander was activated Thursday from the IL, the rotation has both of its $43 million aces back. The bullpen already had been holding up well despite losing $102 million closer Edwin Diaz for the season to a freakish WBC injury in late March.

In other words, despite a lengthy injury list on paper, this really isn’t a matter of the Mets waiting to get healthy, other than a disappointing rotation piece in Carlos Carrasco and Jose Quintana, who is out until July after surgery to repair a fractured rib. The Mets have a large chunk of their $375 million payroll still operational, and that’s why the current roster at this stage has become worrisome.

It’s hardly a surprise that the Mets’ rotation would be ranked in the bottom third of just about every statistical category — including 23rd in ERA (5.29) and 27th in WHIP (1.50) — when they were missing four of their five projected starters, including a pair of three-time Cy Young Award winners. But the problem wasn’t so much Max Scherzer’s absence. It’s what Scherzer does when he actually pitches (5.56 ERA).

The pitiful Tigers thumping Verlander for back-to-back first-inning homers in Thursday’s season debut set off sirens as well, and no one expected these two to be showing their age this soon.

From an offensive standpoint, however, the Mets have no excuses to be middle of the pack or worse in most categories, including 4.30 runs/ game that ranks 17th overall and a .387 slugging percentage that’s 19th. One of the primary culprits has been Francisco Lindor, hitting .213 through Friday with a 27% strikeout rate that’s the highest by a non-catcher on the Mets.

Starling Marte has regressed from his 2022 self and the regular DH gig also remains problematic for a lineup that lacks punch, as Daniel Vogelbach’s .381 slugging ranks 40th among qualified players in that spot. On the positive side, Eppler/Showalter are starting to come around on Brett Baty, who was moved up in the lineup as high as sixth Friday after showing that he’s one of the Mets’ most productive hitters since his arrival.

“I have the utmost confidence these guys are going to break out,” Eppler said of the underachieving group as a whole.

But what’s a more reliable strategy? Expecting healthy players to eventually perform to their career levels, as the Mets are assuming for a revival, or banking on injured stars to deliver once they make the roster whole again, which is what the Yankees are doing?

Cashman seems confident in the latter. Then again, he really doesn’t have a choice, as the Yankees have more than $150 million sitting on the IL, including the two biggest offensive threats (Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton), a pair of elite starters (Carlos Rodon, Luis Severino) and a handful of key relievers.

The lineup, to put it bluntly, has been an embarrassment for a team with a $293 million payroll. The Yankees’ 3.94 runs per game ranks 25th in the majors — between the A’s (3.97) and Royals (3.85) — and their .678 OPS sits at 23rd, tied with the Reds.

Judge (hip) is expected to come off the IL Tuesday, so that should inject some immediate pop and improve the club’s dismal outfield alignment with him on the sidelines.

But without Stanton available to put in rightfield — he’s not anticipated back from a hamstring strain until the end of this month or early June — the Yankees are in a perpetual state of trying to make up for Cashman failing to upgrade leftfield in the offseason. It’s no shocker that the Yankees are dead last in batting average (.173) and OPS (.459) from that position as the rotation of Oswaldo Cabrera, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Jake Bauers and Aaron Hicks has been a dismal failure.

It’s hard to believe the Yankees would be begging for the return of Josh Donaldson (hamstring) just to add another occasional deep threat, but what else is there in the bottom half of their batting order? Willie Calhoun played hero by homering on back-to-back nights this past week, but cheap fill-ins like Calhoun, Bauers and Franchy Cordero have expiration dates. As a result, Cashman finds himself treading water as the rehabbing stars heal up — or the Aug. 1 trade deadline gets here. With this group’s medical track record, it’s tough to tell which will come first.

On the rotation front, Rodon — the supposed $162 million No. 2 behind Gerrit Cole — will receive a cortisone shot for his back issue this week and his timetable remains uncertain. Rodon has been a Yankee only since the end of December and hass yet to throw a meaningful pitch, but the way things are going in the Bronx, he’s the pinstriped ideal: a big-money player with a sketchy medical history that — stunner! — inevitably lands on the IL sooner rather than later.

“When we’re at full health — or close to it, because you’re never going to be at full health — I believe we have a championship-caliber team,” Cashman said. “And I also know it’s a long season. Unfortunately, in the position we’re in, we’re going to be thankful it’s a long season because we’re banged up so bad right now, if it was a short season, we’d be taken out.

“But we have time to make up ground, and we’re going to compete with who we have here, and we look forward to getting who we need back at a later date.”

How much later is the question, and that rebound timeline for both the Mets and Yankees seems hazy at best right now. Those February dreams of a Subway Series don’t feel any closer to materializing. The goals have become a bit more modest in May.

Like staying above .500 in the foreseeable future.

By David Lennon

dave.lennon@newsday.comDPLennon

David Lennon is an award-winning columnist, a voter for baseball's Hall of Fame and has covered six no-hitters, including two perfect games.