Roger Rubin: Mets need more than Juan Soto at peak performance to make uphill climb
Mets' Juan Soto follows through on his third-inning home run against the Washington Nationals at Citi Field on Wednesday. Credit: Jim McIsaac
There is no quick fix for the Mets right now, no easy route out of the hole they’ve put themselves in. After Wednesday night’s brutal 14-2 loss to the Nationals before 32,624 at rainy at Citi Field, their 10-20 record is the worst in baseball and they hold just a 35.6% chance of making the postseason, according to FanGraphs.com.
The only way out is to slowly and steadily chip away and that will take contributions from all over the roster. No one player can do it, though if we’re being honest, some can do substantially more than others.
And without a doubt, Juan Soto is the one Mets player that could do the most. He was the lone standout for them against Washington with three hits including a solo home run. But the question that begs is whether the circumstances around him will improve enough to give him a nightly chance to actually pull the Mets back to respectability.
The Mets’ lineup this season was never going to look like an obstacle course but in its current composition, it’s badly diminished from what it was supposed to be. Outside of bases-empty situations, are opponents really going to go after Soto? And, even then, if a game were on the line?
We didn’t really get an answer Wednesday because the only time he came to bat with someone on base, the Nats already had a seven-run lead.
The vision for this Mets lineup, one that would bring out the best in their $765 million star, had leadoff hitter Francisco Lindor steadily getting on base ahead of him and a pair of potent run-producing bats behind him in Bo Bichette, who had an .840 OPS last season for Toronto, and Jorge Polanco, who had an .821 OPS for Seattle. The dangerous-when-healthy Luis Robert Jr. hit fifth.
Soto was going to be able to drive in runs and opposing pitchers couldn’t just pitch around him. And that’s exactly how things looked in the early going when he slashed .355/.412/.516 through the first eight games. Then a calf injury sidelined him for 15 games — including the 12-game losing streak — and things looked very different when he returned.
Now that they need him most, the lineup that was designed to bring out the best in Soto is in shambles. Lindor has what the team has termed a “calf strain” and could be out for an extended period of time. Bichette has been moved up to the leadoff spot. Polanco has been out with a wrist injury and Robert hasn’t been entirely healthy and was headed for an MRI tube Wednesday because of a balky back.
So it’s not quite pick-your-poison any longer. On Wednesday, the “protection” following Soto in the lineup was MJ Melendez, the .228-hitting Francisco Alvarez and the .212-hitting Brett Baty.
“I think I am still seeing some pitches to hit — I can’t really say if it’s the same number it would be if things were different,” Soto said before first pitch.
Asked if he thinks the return of injured players will create an uptick in pitches he can do damage on, Soto replied “I’d think so because they’re great players coming back [to the lineup]. But at the end, we’ve got to see how things go. We’ll definitely have a better lineup with those guys that have been injured, but I think it won’t just [improve] things for me. I think it will mean the whole lineup gets more pitches where they can do damage.”
There is some evidence — even though it’s a small sample size — that opponents have decided not to give Soto the chance to beat them and let other Mets try. According to MLB.com, 50.6% of the pitches Soto saw last season were thrown outside the strike zone. That number is up this year to 55.3% entering Wednesday’s game.
Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said, “The guys around [Soto] will need to step up.”
“Regardless of who’s in the lineup, a lot of teams are going to try to pitch around him — like when you’re facing teams with one or two [great] hitters, you kind of pick and ‘this guy’s not going to beat us,’ ” Mendoza added. “I feel like he continues to get pitches [to hit], maybe not as many . . . and if they don’t want to pitch to him, he’s got to trust his teammates.”
Asked about the way the injuries are impacting the offense, Soto replied, “We’ve been having a tough time managing the adversity, but when we are healthy and have everybody in the lineup, we’re going to be really dangerous.”
Hitters like Soto are often described as the ones “who can carry a team through a stretch,” and there’s no doubt that when he returned from injury, the Mets got back the biggest offensive weapon they have.
Whether they can climb out of their current hole may simply depend on whether they get to deploy it.
Roger Rubin returned to Newsday in 2018 to write about high schools, colleges and baseball following 20 years at the Daily News. A Baseball Hall of Fame voter since 2011, he has covered 13 MLB postseasons and 14 NCAA Final Fours.
