Tom Rock: Jaxson Dart has shown promise, but is he really the answer for the Giants?

Going into an NFL season is like packing for an extended trip. You make a long checklist of the things you’ll need to have with you.

So far, with about two weeks to go until the opener, the Giants’ suitcase looks pretty stuffed. First, there is the new head coach with the winning resume. Then there is the huge, ferocious defense that clearly has a taste for quarterback flesh, and an offensive line that finally seems to be providing continuity. Add in a deep running backs room, a long list of talented receivers — including their best target, who is on track to start the season healthy — and a precocious rookie kicker with a generational leg.

They also have the quarterback who can bring it all together.

At least they think they do. They hope they do. Wait, someone remembered the quarterback, right?

Jaxson Dart is the second-year player on whom the entire organization is pinning its robust plans for 2026. The truth, though, is they can’t be certain about what they have in him. No one can. And taking off on this journey without a trusted quarterback isn’t like leaving a toothbrush at home. You can’t just stop by a CVS and pick one up.

Dart flashed plenty of promising plays along with some worrisome ones last year as a rookie. He had a bumpy start to the preseason but has managed to smooth things out with more consistent play, with the almost-audible click coming in the joint practice in Miami last week.

He walks and talks like a franchise quarterback. He can certainly act like a franchise quarterback. But until he takes the field in September and plays like one for real, there is no way of knowing whether Dart is The Guy. These Giants need him to be.

If he is not?

At this point in Dart’s career that possibility needs to at least be on the table. Say what you will about the Jets’ current quarterback situation — at least they know what they are getting from Geno Smith when he plays. Can the Giants, in all honesty, say the same thing about Dart?

In talking with several executives and scouts around the league, the attitude toward Dart isn’t negative enough to be considered skepticism; rather, it is closer to curiosity. Sure things in football are rare, sure things at quarterback are even rarer. Dart may live up to expectations, but he isn’t seen by other teams as a sure thing.

Confidence is high in the Giants’ building that he will rise to that level this year, though, and some of the most decorated coaches in the league are vouching for him.

“He's very talented,” John Harbaugh said of Dart this week. “I think he's got exceptional arm talent. He can throw off different platforms. I think he sees the field well. I think he has a good pocket presence… I think his upside is tremendous.”

Sounds definitive. And it comes from a coach who, the last time he went into a season with a second-year quarterback, saw Lamar Jackson win the first of his two MVP awards.

But consider this: Giants offensive coordinator Matt Nagy once guaranteed his young quarterback would, “without a doubt,” play in a Super Bowl one day. No, not Dart. It was Justin Fields, the rookie he had when he was head coach of the Bears. Anything can happen — just look at Sam Darnold — and there are certainly late bloomers in the NFL. Yet at this point it seems Nagy’s prediction on Fields, who flopped as the Jets’ starter a year ago and is now a backup in Kansas City, will go unfulfilled.

Maybe that’s why Nagy gave himself some wiggle room on Tuesday when he was asked when he knows if a young quarterback has the “it” factor — if he is the real deal.

“You have to win,” Nagy said. “You have to see it within more than just one year.”

In other words: two things Dart hasn’t done. Right now, he is just floating somewhere between Jackson and Fields.

As good as his stats were last season – of the seven rookie quarterbacks who started at least one game in 2025, Dart had the highest passer rating (91.7), tied for the most touchdown throws (15, with Tyler Shough), and had more rushing touchdowns (9) than the other six players combined – the Giants won just four of his 12 starts. And that’s not even taking into consideration that he seems to spend more time in the tent than a Boy Scout.

He didn’t have Malik Nabers for most of last year. He didn’t have Cam Skattebo for about half of it. He had two different head coaches trying to steer him. With any luck, none of those issues will plague Dart this season.

It also means there are no more excuses.

Nagy’s resume doesn’t start and end with Fields. He’s coached other quarterbacks, most notably Patrick Mahomes. He likes what he’s seen so far from Dart — a player he didn’t interact with much when he came out of college. When you are on a staff and Mahomes is your quarterback, you don’t waste much time scouting the position.

“If a guy has some of the intangibles, you can know that right away as you get into the first several months,” Nagy said. “I saw that right away with this kid in OTAs… I knew within two weeks that for the person part of it he had what is needed.”

As for the football part, Dart is certainly growing on him. The touchdown pass he threw in the preseason opener helped that.

“He turned it into a scramble and a beautiful, spectacular play,” Nagy said. “That’s rare what he did.”

Nagy also said he likes Dart’s maturity, his competitiveness, and his desire to be perfect.

“Now,” he said, “we have to take it to the season and see how it goes during the year.”

The Giants believe in Dart, but neither they nor we can possibly know exactly what they have in him until he proves it.

This year he probably will. One way or the other.