Fantasy plays: Players to start and sit for NFL Week 16

If you win this week, you’re playing for a title and hitting on the right start/sit decisions can be a big help.

Every week I’ll be listing out every fantasy-relevant player, sorted by position and bucketed into tiers with the higher-tiered players deemed more start-worthy. For specific start/sit advice between two players in the same tier, refer to numberFire ’s projections.

These tiers are meant to reflect your typical 12-team, half-PPR scoring formats with only one starting quarterback — though the general rankings can be loosely applied to most formats.

Any player not listed can be assumed sit-worthy in most leagues.

All betting references refer to the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All statistics via NFL Next Gen Stats and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise stated.

QUARTERBACKS

Tier 1: Lineup locks

— Jalen Hurts (PHI vs. NYG)

— Josh Allen (BUF at LAC)

— Justin Fields (CHI vs. ARI)

— Dak Prescott (DAL at MIA)

— Lamar Jackson (BAL at SF)

— Patrick Mahomes (KC vs. LV)

Just start these guys and don’t worry about it. numberFire has all six projected for at least 19.2 fantasy points.

Tier 2: Probable starters

— Tua Tagovailoa (MIA vs. DAL). Tagovailoa carries big upside this week as Miami-Dallas (51.5-point total and 1.5-point spread) could have plenty of touchdowns.

— Brock Purdy (SF vs. BAL). In one-quarterback formats, there’s a case to be made for sitting Purdy if you have another quality option. Baltimore has allowed 12.8 fantasy points per game to QBs, the fourth fewest.

— Nick Mullens (MIN vs. DET). I might be too aggressive here, but Mullens was good last week and is indoors against a Detroit defense that’s allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to QBs (19.5).

— Kyler Murray (ARI at CHI). Murray offers rushing upside, and the matchup is solid.

— Jared Goff (DET at MIN). Vikings-Lions should be fun for fantasy (46.5-point total and 4.5-point spread).

— Baker Mayfield (TB vs. JAX). Feels point-chasey, but the Jags are giving up 20.0 fantasy points per game to signal-callers, the third most.

Tier 3: On the fence

— Trevor Lawrence (JAX at TB). If Lawrence is able to play, there’s a lot to like about him in a matchup with a Bucs defense that is a bottom-five unit against the pass, per numberFire’s schedule-adjusted metrics.

— Jordan Love (GB at CAR). Capable of a big game against Carolina.

— Taylor Heinicke (ATL vs. IND). A home game against the Colts is a more-than-fine matchup, and he has some running ability.

— Gardner Minshew (IND at ATL). Decent option this week. Lack of upside makes him just OK overall.

— Matthew Stafford (LAR vs. NO). Repeat what I said for Minshew.

Tier 4: Sit if possible

— C.J. Stroud (HOU vs. CLE). Bad matchup and supporting cast is banged up.

— Jake Browning (CIN at PIT). While he’s mostly been good since taking over, this is a rough spot at the Steelers, and Ja’Marr Chase is expected to be out.

— Russell Wilson (DEN vs. NE). Very little chance I’d start Wilson against Bill Belichick in the fantasy playoffs if I had any other serviceable options.

— Sam Howell (WSH at NYJ). Struggled last week and in a tougher spot this week.

RUNNING BACKS

Tier 1: Lineup locks

— Christian McCaffrey (SF vs BAL)

— Kyren Williams (LAR vs. NO)

— Travis Etienne (JAX at TB)

— Rachaad White (TB vs. JAX)

— Breece Hall (NYJ vs. WAS)

— Tony Pollard (DAL at MIA)

— Isiah Pacheco (KC vs. LV)

— James Cook (BUF at LAC)

— Raheem Mostert (MIA vs. DAL)

— Derrick Henry (TEN vs. SEA)

— Devin Singletary (HOU vs. CLE)

— Alvin Kamara (NO at LAR)

Most of these guys are in smash spots this week. Lock them in.

Tier 2: Probable starters

— James Conner (ARI at CHI). Conner’s 49% snap rate is an eyesore, but numberFire slots him as the week’s RB13.

— Aaron Jones (GB at CAR). Jones’ 48% snap rate from last week may go up a bit in his second game back, especially if A.J. Dillon is out again. Panthers are a real good matchup.

— D’Andre Swift (PHI vs. NYG). Eagles are 10.5-point favorites over the Giants. Swift can have a big game if he gets some goal-line work. That’s a big if.

— Saquon Barkley (NYG at PHI). The lopsided spread is scary. Barkley does enough in the passing game to come through.

— Bijan Robinson (ATL vs. IND). Robinson struggled last week. Colts have allowed the fourth-most half-PPR points per game to RBs (23.4).

— Jahmyr Gibbs (DET at MIN). Lions RBs will see a good Minnesota run D, but Detroit should score points (24.5-point implied total).

— Josh Jacobs (LV at KC). This ranking assumes he’s able to play. If not, Zamir White is a viable flex.

— Chuba Hubbard (CAR vs. GB). At least 22 carries in three straight games. Can’t ignore that.

— Ezekiel Elliott (NE at DEN). Played 87% and 91% of the snaps without Rhamondre Stevenson the past two weeks.

— David Montgomery (DET at MIN). See: Gibbs.

— Joe Mixon (CIN at PIT). Trending down. Just 13 total touches last week while Chase Brown had seven carries and three targets.

— Kenneth Walker III (SEA at TEN). Played 56% of the snaps in each of his two games back.

— Javonte Williams (DEN vs. NE). Game script crushed him this past week. Shouldn’t be the case against the Pats.

— Austin Ekeler (LAC vs. BUF). In on only 40% of the snaps in a blowout last week. Another blowout could be in the works as the Bills are 10.5-point road favorites.

Tier 3: On the fence

— Jerome Ford (CLE at HOU). Out-snapped Kareem Hunt in seven straight. While Ford’s snap rate was a meh 51% last week, he draws a decent matchup this week at Houston.

— Jaylen Warren (PIT vs. CIN). A negative game script pushed Warren’s snap rate to a season-high 69% last week. Najee Harris-Warren split likely ends up more even, hurting each back’s upside.

— Najee Harris (PIT vs. CIN). What I just said.

— Kareem Hunt (CLE at HOU). Probably needs a TD to have a solid game.

— Ty Chandler (MIN vs. DET). Slotting Chandler here assuming Alexander Mattison is back to take some of Chandler’s workload. If Mattison sits, Chandler is a no-doubt start despite Detroit’s quality run D.

— De’Von Achane (MIA vs. DAL). Snap rates have been 46% and 39% the past two games. Still has big-play chops, and the likely high-scoring game environment helps.

— Gus Edwards (BAL at SF). Should see a boost in role with Keaton Mitchell out. However, the matchup at San Francisco is tough.

— Antonio Gibson (WAS at NYJ). May get another chance at the lead job if Brian Robinson sits again, but Gibson had a disappointing 45% snap rate a week ago.

— Alexander Mattison (MIN vs. DET). Could be the clear backup in Minnesota now after what Chandler did last week.

— Jonathan Taylor (IND at ATL). Both Indy backs are injury question marks. If we get one without the other, the one playing would be a safe bet for nice volume.

— Zack Moss (IND at ATL). See above.

Tier 4: Sit if possible

— Zach Charbonnet (SEA at TEN). Charbonnet’s snap rates have been 42% and 44% since Walker returned. Got four touches last week. Bench him.

— Justice Hill (BAL at SF). If I had to plug in one guy from this group, Hill is it. With Mitchell out, there’s volume up for grabs in Baltimore. Hill could wind up playing more snaps than Edwards, but could lose out on the goal-line work.

— Tyler Allgeier (ATL vs. IND). Snap rate spiked to 50% last week after four straight games under 30%. Who knows what his role will be like this week. He’s TD or bust.

— Tyjae Spears (TEN vs. SEA). Out-snapped Derrick Henry in three straight. Needs a negative game script to really hit, though, and Tennessee is only a 2.5-point underdog this week.

— Roschon Johnson (CHI vs. ARI). Love the matchup for the Bears’ RBs. Hate that D’Onta Foreman, Johnson and Khalil Herbert all played between 49% and 23% of the snaps last week.

— D’Onta Foreman (CHI vs. ARI). Johnson played almost twice as many snaps as Foreman last week (36 to 19).

WIDE RECEIVERS

Tier 1: Lineup locks

— Tyreek Hill (MIA vs. DAL)

— CeeDee Lamb (DAL at MIA)

— Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET at MIN)

— Justin Jefferson (MIN vs. DET)

— D.J. Moore (CHI vs. ARI)

— Stefon Diggs (BUF at LAC)

— A.J. Brown (PHI vs. NYG)

— Mike Evans (TB vs. JAX)

— Cooper Kupp (LAR vs. NO)

— Jaylen Waddle (MIA vs. DAL)

— Puka Nacua (LAR vs. NO)

— Brandon Aiyuk (SF vs. BAL)

— Deebo Samuel (SF vs. BAL)

Be thankful you have these studs. Miami-Dallas could be a high-scoring matchup.

Tier 2: Probable starters

— Calvin Ridley (JAX at TB). If Lawrence plays this week and Zay Jones sits, Ridley is easy to play as the last wideout standing for the Jags in a friendly matchup with the Bucs. If Lawrence is out, Ridley drops down these rankings a bit but is still a start.

— Tee Higgins (CIN at PIT). With Chase likely out, Higgins gets a bump.

— DeAndre Hopkins (TEN vs. SEA). Finishing on a high note with 12, 12 and 9 targets across his past three.

— D.K. Metcalf (SEA at TEN). Titans have been more giving against the pass than the run.

— DeVonta Smith (PHI vs. NYG). My favorite receiver in this tier. I think the Eagles handle the Giants. Both he and AJ Brown may have big games.

— Rashee Rice (KC vs. LV). Rice is clearly the top receiver in KC, with snap rates of 85% and 92% in the past two games. Must start.

— Davante Adams (LV at KC). Negative game script on tap with Vegas a 10.0-point underdog.

— Chris Godwin (TB vs. JAX). Past two weeks: 23 targets, 15 catches and 208 yards. No TDs, though, because of course.

— Amari Cooper (CLE at HOU). Doing just fine with Joe Flacco. Has 22 targets in the past two games.

— Garrett Wilson (NYJ vs. WSH). The matchup is 100% there against a Commanders D giving up the second-most half-PPR points per game to WRs (36.3). No other boxes are checked. Lost season for him, unfortunately.

— Drake London (ATL vs. IND). Getting just three looks last week was likely because of the weather. Should fare better this weekend.

— Zay Flowers (BAL at SF). Disappointed last week (two targets) but still paced the Ravens’ wideouts in snaps (84%) by a wide margin.

— Jordan Addison (MIN vs. DET). Played 91% of the snaps and caught all six of his targets in Justin Jefferson’s first full game back. Gets a pass-funnel matchup this week.

Tier 3: On the fence

— Terry McLaurin (WSH at NYJ). Popped for a season-high 23.1 half-PPR points last week. Will have a tough time staying hot against a top-notch Jets secondary.

— Tyler Lockett (SEA at TEN). Ceiling has been missing this season. Hasn’t topped 100 yards once.

— George Pickens (PIT vs. CIN). The Steelers’ top duo is just about impossible to trust with Mason Rudolph starting. The Bengals provide a nice matchup.

— Odell Beckham (BAL at SF). His 54% snap rate last week was his highest since Week 8. Baltimore may have to throw more than usual this week as the Ravens are 5.5-point underdogs.

— Diontae Johnson (PIT vs. CIN). See: Pickens.

— Adam Thielen (CAR vs. GB). Long gone are the boom weeks. Volume is still respectable, though, with 7.6 targets per game over eight post-bye games.

— Brandin Cooks (DAL at MIA). Gets a lift from the possible high-scoring matchup in South Beach.

— Josh Palmer (LAC vs. BUF). Productive game last week thanks to garbage time and Keenan Allen being out. We could see a repeat of that exact scenario. If Allen plays, he probably needs to be in lineups while Palmer’s floor gets really scary.

— Nico Collins (HOU vs. CLE). Collins is tough to rank given the unknowns around the status of he and Stroud. If both play, Collins is worth a start despite the difficult matchup.

Tier 4: Sit if possible

— Courtland Sutton (DEN vs. NE). Can’t talk myself into any of the receivers in the Denver-New England game. Sutton is the best option of the bunch.

— Tyler Boyd (CIN at PIT). Boyd has increased appeal with Chase sidelined. Still doesn’t excite me much.

— Jerry Jeudy (DEN vs. NE). See: Sutton.

— Demario Douglas (NE vs. DEN). See: Sutton. Intrigued by Douglas for 2024, though, assuming the Pats have a new QB.

— Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA at TEN). Doesn’t have enough upside as the WR3 in a mundane passing attack.

— Gabriel Davis (BUF at LAC). Two straight goose eggs, so pencil him in for 100 yards and 2 scores this week.

— Josh Downs (IND at ATL). At a few different points this season, I thought he was gonna be a big deal. Hasn’t happened, but Downs could see a boost this week if Michael Pittman Jr. is out. If Pittman plays, MPJ is a high-end WR2 at Atlanta.

— Noah Brown (HOU vs. CLE). Brown is worth a look only if Stroud plays and Collins doesn’t.

TIGHT END

Tier 1: Lineup locks

— Travis Kelce (KC vs. LV)

— Sam LaPorta (DET at MIN)

— T.J. Hockenson (MIN vs. DET)

— Trey McBride (ARI at CHI)

— George Kittle (SF vs. BAL)

— Cole Kmet (CHI at ARI)

— David Njoku (CLE at HOU)

— Jake Ferguson (DAL at MIA)

— Evan Engram (JAX at TB)

Tight end isn’t that bad this week. Kelce hasn’t had a huge game in a bit. I think it happens against Vegas. If Lawrence is out, Engram falls from the must-start ranks.

Tier 2: Probable starters

— Dallas Goedert (PHI vs. NYG). Second on Philly with nine targets last week. Problem is he’s mustered exactly 30 yards in each of his two games back. Get-right spot at home against the Giants this week.

— Isaiah Likely (BAL at SF). Played at least 73% of the snaps in each of the three full games since Mark Andrews went out, and he’s racked up 10 catches for 153 yards and two scores over the past two weeks. He’s a TE1.

— Dalton Kincaid (BUF at LAC). Those who feared Dawson Knox’s return would be a big setback for Kincaid had those worries realized last week, as Knox (62%) out-snapped Kincaid (49%). Ugh. Bolts are a great matchup, but a positive game script might be bad for Kincaid.

Tier 3: On the fence

— Kyle Pitts (ATL vs. IND). After logging an 85% snap rate two games ago, Pitts’ snap share dropped back to a normal level last week (65%). On the positive, Colts have given up the 11th-most half-PPR points per game to tight ends (10.5).

— Darren Waller (NYG at PHI). Played only 42% of the snaps in his first game back. That number could rise this week in his second game, and the Giants figure to be in air-it-out mode in a negative game script.

— Taysom Hill (NO at LAR). Got just 12 total snaps after sitting in Week 14. Maybe he’s not healthy. Either way, he’s a scary start.

— Pat Freiermuth (PIT vs. CIN). Remember when Freiermuth had nine catches for 120 yards in Week 12? Has a total of nine catches for 63 yards in the three games since. However, that big game came against the Bengals, his foe this week, and the Bengals have been getting shredded by tight ends this season. Could do worse.

Tier 4: Sit if possible

— Dalton Schultz (HOU vs. CLE). Tough matchup (Browns allow the second-most half-PPR points per game to TEs) and he may not have his QB.

— Chigoziem Okonkwo (TEN vs. SEA). Topped 46 receiving yards once this season.

— Juwan Johnson (NO at LAR). Matchup is there as the Rams have allowed the fourth-most half-PPR points per game to the position (11.2). He’s made more than three catches in a game just twice since Week 8. TD or bust.