AFC South preview
HOUSTON TEXANS
Prediction: First.
Coach: Gary Kubiak, sixth season (37-43).
Coordinators: Off., Rick Dennison; Def., Wade Phillips.
Outlook: The Texans have been a major disappointment for several years running, failing to make the playoffs despite coming close. Kubiak was retained despite a 6-10 season, and the team brought in Phillips to fix a defense that was simply awful, especially against the pass. The Texans allowed an average of 267.5 yards passing -- worst in the NFL. The signing of free-agent CB Johnathan Joseph was a major acquisition. Matt Schaub continued in his progression as a top QB. He passed for a combined 9,000 yards in consecutive seasons -- only the sixth in NFL history to do so.
Last word: It's not only that the Texans appear capable of taking the next step. It's that the Colts appear ready to take a step back.
Three-year trend (2008-10): 8-8, 9-7, 6-10.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Prediction: Second.
Coach: Jim Caldwell, third season (26-10).
Coordinators: Off., Clyde Christensen; Def., Larry Coyer.
Outlook: Rarely have the fortunes of a team rested squarely on the shoulders of just one player, but that's exactly the situation facing the Colts. Peyton Manning missed the entire preseason recovering from offseason neck surgery, and there are major questions about his recovery after the Colts announced Monday that he'd stop practicing because of continued complications. Manning has never missed a game since coming into the NFL as the No. 1 overall draft pick in 1998, and it looks as if that streak is about to come to an end. Trouble. Big trouble.
Last word: Yes, Colts fans, it is time to panic. No Peyton, no chance.
Three-year trend: 12-4, 14-2, 10-6.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Prediction: Third.
Coach:Jack Del Rio, ninth season (66-65).
Coordinators: Off., Dirk Koetter; Def., Mel Tucker.
Outlook: Just five days before the regular season, Del Rio decided to cut ties with incumbent starter David Garrard and go with journeyman QB Luke McCown. At least for now. But it may only be a matter of time before first-round QB Blaine Gabbert gets a shot. And if the Jaguars struggle early, that chance could come sooner rather than later. The Jags will rely plenty on RB Maurice Jones-Drew, but it's what happens at quarterback that will ultimately determine the team's fate. The defense is average, and the fact that Aaron Kampman is only a part-time pass rusher doesn't help.
Last word: Just can't see this team doing much better than a .500 finish.
Three-year trend: 5-11, 7-9, 8-8.
TENNESSEE TITANS
Prediction: Fourth.
Coach: Mike Munchak, first season.
Coordinators: Off., Chris Palmer; Def., Jerry Gray.
Outlook: The Chris Johnson contract dispute dominated the preseason, but it underscored just how important the All-Pro RB is (4,598 rushing yards, the fourth-highest by a player in his first three seasons). Munchak is part of a major transition from the Jeff Fisher years, and he doesn't have it easy with a roster in transition. QB Matt Hasselbeck takes over for Kerry Collins, who retired and then unretired by signing with the Colts. But Hasselbeck is only holding the spot until first-round QB Jake Locker is up to speed. The defensive line, once the strength of the Titans, is now a shell.
Last word: The operative word this year: patience.
Three-year trend: 13-3, 8-8, 6-10.
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