NFL Week 10 Thursday Night Football pick: Colts have slight edge over Titans

INDIANAPOLIS (5-3) AT TENNESSEE (6-2)

TV: Ch. 5, NFL, 8:20 p.m.

Line: Pick 'em; O/U: 48.5

The unwritten rule for picking games on Thursday is that when it's evenly matched teams and the point spread is fewer than a field goal, you side with the home team. With a short week and so many unknowns, it makes sense. But do the numbers back up the theory?

Since 2012, home teams on Thursdays (including Thanksgiving games) are 76-55 straight up and 66-62 against the spread (ATS), according to TeamRankings.com. This season it's 4-4 and 2-6 ATS. Home field means even less in 2020 with no fans.

So while home teams do win more often than not, it's not a guarantee and shouldn't be treated like one. Which brings us to Colts-Titans, a Week 10 game that will go a long way in determining who wins the AFC South. With the Texans (2-6) and Jaguars (1-7) irrelevant, one of these teams will win the division while the other could grab a wild-card spot. Both are solid yet unspectacular teams, and this is a difficult game to handicap. Tennessee was 5-0 but lost at Cincinnati two weeks ago, so it's not as if it's on the level of Kansas City. Tennessee can lose this game and no one will be shocked.

This is a toss-up, but I'm going to go with Indianapolis because of its defense. It leads the NFL in fewest yards allowed (290) per game and allows the third fewest points (20). Most importantly, it can stop the run, allowing 83.6 yards per game (third best). Stopping Derrick Henry won't be easy, of course, but if it can hold him to around or just under 100 yards, I like the Colts' chances of moving atop the division with a hard-fought, hope-Philip-Rivers-doesn't-throw-a-costly-interception win. Let the nail biting begin.

The pick: Indianapolis