NFL Championship Sunday picks: Saints, Chiefs advance to Super Bowl LIII

Home teams continued their dominance in the divisional round, and now look to do the same on Championship Sunday. The Chiefs, Rams, Saints and Patriots are the top four scoring offenses, so the NFL's final four should produce plenty of fireworks with a trip to Super Bowl LIII on the line.

Hosts are 10-0 straight up and 9-1 against the spread in championship games the last five seasons (courtesy of OddsShark). That trend has a solid chance to continue, but let's be honest: It wouldn't be shocking if both road teams won. These are four evenly-matched teams, and no matter what happens, we are guaranteed a super matchup on Feb. 3.

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

RAMS AT SAINTS

Sunday, Ch. 5, 3:05 p.m.

Saints by 3; O/U: 56.5

These were the two best NFC teams all season, so it's only fitting one of them will represent the conference in the Super Bowl. When they met at New Orleans in Week 9, the 6-1 Saints jumped out to a 35-17 halftime lead before the 8-0 Rams tied it at 35. But Drew Brees hit Michael Thomas for a long TD pass to seal a 45-35 win. The Rams played one of their most complete games of the season in a 30-22 divisional-round win over the Cowboys, with Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson running all over Dallas. A day later, the Saints fell behind 14-0 to the Eagles before scoring 20 unanswered. They needed a gutsy fake punt call, fourth-and-goal touchdown and late interception to complete the comeback.

The fact that New Orleans struggled so much and still found a way to win is the main reason why I like it to advance to Atlanta in two weeks. The Superdome is also a super advantage: The Saints are 7-1 at home when Brees starts (he sat in Week 17). The Saints won't start slowly this time, and as good as the Rams' defense looked last week, it will have its hands full with Brees, Thomas and the 1-2 rushing attack of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. Brees threw for 346 yards and four TDs in the first meeting, with Thomas catching 12 balls for 211 yards and the aforementioned 72-yard catch and run. Thomas had 12 catches for 171 yards and a TD last week. Brees has done a tremendous job getting his lesser-known wideouts involved this season and that could be a key in this game.

As for the Rams, it comes down to whether Jared Goff can match Brees. He threw for 391 yards and three scores in the first meeting but without Cooper Kupp this time, it won't be as easy. The best matchup will be Sean Payton vs. Sean McVay, as the aggressive coaches figure to pull out all the stops  One wild card is Taysom Hill, the Saints' jack of all trades. He could be the difference in a close game that will go down to the wire.

The pick: Saints

The score: Saints 34, Rams 30

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

PATRIOTS AT CHIEFS

Sunday, Ch. 2, 6:40 p.m.

Chiefs by 3; O/U: 55.5

Fourteen weeks after these teams played a Sunday night thriller in Foxborough, we get the rematch at Arrowhead. It turns out that the road to the Super Bowl was paved back on Dec. 9, when the final minutes of both teams' thrilling games would determine who would have home-field advantage. If not for Patrick Mahomes' fourth-and-9 throw, the Chiefs wouldn't have beaten the Ravens in overtime. More importantly, if not for the Miami Miracle — right around the same time — the Patriots would've held the tiebreaker at 12-4 with the Chiefs and been hosting this game. If that was the case, the pick would have been the Pats. How could you not back the Pats at home after the way they throttled the Chargers last week? But with the game in Kansas City, the slight lean goes to Mahomes and all his playmakers in their rocking home stadium where they're 8-1.

The Chiefs scored 31 points against the Colts last week, and did it without a Mahomes TD pass. He had a rushing score, and threw it all over the field, but expect him to find the end zone with his arm in this game. He lit up the Pats for 352 yards and 4 TDs in the 43-40 loss in Week 6. Bill Belichick will take away one of the Chiefs' threats — likely Damien Williams and the run game — but the problem for the Pats is that the Chiefs just have too many weapons. Tyreek Hill, who caught seven passes for 142 yards and TDs of 14, 1 and 75 yards in the first meeting, is a matchup nightmare. Throw in Travis Kelce (sorry Gronk, he's the best tight end wearing No. 87 in this game) as well as deep threat Sammy Watkins and the Chiefs are nearly impossible to stop.

The key for the Chiefs defense will be getting after Tom Brady, who carved up the Chargers with screen passes and short throws over the middle. James White had 15 catches, and the Chiefs need to limit his production to get the Pats off the field. Chris Jones, Dee Ford and Justin Houston could make things just difficult enough for Brady.

New England was 3-5 on the road this season, and is 0-3 in its last three road conference championship games. With two super-talented teams and it being played in frigid conditions, this game really is a toss-up. I'll ride with the Mahomes magic and the Arrowhead crowd as Andy Reid gets back to the Super Bowl.

The pick: Chiefs

The score: Chiefs 31, Patriots 27