Eight is enough . . . for Giants to rebuild
If the Giants lose tonight, the big question will no longer be how low the team can go. It will be how low should they go?
At 0-7, the season would ostensibly be over and it would be time to start planning for the future. That means the 2014 draft. And while there will undoubtedly be “competition” for the top pick in that selection process with the Jaguars and the Bucs, the two other winless teams in the NFL, there will be a faction of fans who will be pulling for the Giants to lose so that they can have a high pick.
Look at the Colts. They decided to, um, "Stink for Luck," so to speak, and two years later they are world-beaters. So should the Giants Frown for Clowney? Burn the Bridge for Bridgewater?
According to Draftmetrics.com, that won’t be necessary. As long as the Giants pick within the first eight selections of the draft, there is really no statistical advantage to where they are in that range.
Draftmetrics took a look at the last 20 years of NFL drafts and found that there is no difference between picking first and eighth when it comes to selecting a three-time All-Pro player (the highest accolade that can be projected onto a pick). It happens about once every six years for picks one through eight. One-time Pro Bowlers are selected about once a year, three-time Pro Bowlers once every two years, and one-time All-Pro players about once every two years. It’s only after that eighth pick that the frequency of those kinds of players starts to diminish. By the time you get to the 32nd overall pick, for example, there is one three-time All-Pro player selected every 17 years or so.
So don’t cringe if the Giants wind up winning a few meaningless games in December and wind up sacrificing draft position for it. As long as they’re bad enough to pick in the first eight spots, historically, it won’t matter much.
Isn’t that great news, Giants fans?