Gameday Live 12: Redskins vs. Giants

Good afternoon, Giants enthusiasts. Stephen Haynes filling in for Chris Mascaro, but it's the same deal as every week. You'll be provided updates, stats, miscellaneous information, a little banter and, here, a really long pre-game introduction that includes analysis and numbers that often prove useless. So here we go...

The Giants find themselves in a similar situation to the one they were in last week –  behind the Eagles in the standings and entering a gotta-have-it, should-get-it game. Last week they rebound from a dismal first half and, with some big plays and good fortune (and rousing halftime speeches, if you give much credence to those), were able to come back and beat the Jaguars, 24-20. Despite the identical records, Jacksonville was, in measures of talent, an inferior opponent. As is the Redskins today.

Washington has several talented players (a former Pro Bowler on each level of the defense, along with a former Pro Bowl wide receiver and a quarterback who’s a potential Hall of Famer) and an accomplished offensive-minded head coach. Yet the Redskins are 5-6. Few favored them to win the NFC East and their playoff prospects in preseason prognostications were piddling, but it’s hard to argue that they haven’t fallen below expectations.

Rookie year subtracted, Donovan McNabb is having easily his worst season. He’s attacked downfield more than Jason Campbell did and he’s got 2,853 yards to show for it (on pace to top 4,000 yards for the first time),  but he’s had almost as much difficulty reaching the end zone consistently. McNabb has just 11 touchdown passes, his 57.8 completion percentage is the lowest in five years, and he already has tied his career-high with 13 interceptions – a total he reached in his first full season as a starter. As well, he was pulled in favor of Rex Grossman in the final minutes of the Redskins' loss to the Lions and much was made about Mike and Kyle Shanahan’s peculiar reasons/excuses for the move. So the quarterback-head coach/offensive coordinator relationship there is, at the least, shaky. Meanwhile in Philadelphia, Michael Vick is playing like McNabb circa 2004 in Andy Reid's system, which certainly doesn't help McNabb's case.

The Redskins have gotten very little out of the receivers who aren't Santana Moss. He's having a good season with 62 catches for 778 yards and has caught 66% of the balls thrown his way. But the second most productive wideout is rookie Anthony Armstrong with 25 catches (he went undrafted in 2005 and knocked about on practice squads). Tight end/H-Back Chris Cooley is having a solid year with 54 catches and 603 yards, but he's only scored twice. Their third leading receiver is backup running back Keiland Williams, with 28 catches for 183 yards.

They haven't gotten much from the running game, either. They're 26th in rushing, having totaled just 998 yards (146 from McNabb) at 4.0 yards per attempt. The offensive line hasn’t done well run-blocking  (they're ranked in the bottom half in directional YPC except off right tackle) and Clinton Portis has had another injury-ruined season. (It’s easy to forget that he only turned 29 a couple months ago because of all the mileage on him and his dropoff the last few years.) Add it all up and the Redskins are 25th in the league in scoring, putting up just 19.5 points per game.

The Washington defense features $100-million (former) star defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth, a linebacker group that includes a talented pass rusher in Brian Orakpo and tackling machine London Fletcher, a secondary that features standouts DeAngelo Hall and LaRon Landry. Yet they’re ranked last in total defense (400.9 yards per game), 21st in points allowed (23.8) and 29th in pass defense. They're giving up 269.4 yards per game through the air, have a 64.4 completion percentage against, and have allowed quarterbacks a combined 90.4 rating. Add to it, they've had a couple downright embarrassing performances – the 59-28 drubbing from the Eagles coming to mind first.

The Redskins is a team teetering between mediocre and bad, with all the required components to drift toward the latter as the season winds down. The Giants (7-4) are a half game out of first place - sans the tiebreaker the Eagles hold - and, with the NFC North and South teams heating up and mussing the Wild Card brackets a bit, they almost have to win to keep themselves in the picture. But, weird as it sounds (reads), if the Giants lose today, they’ll be closer to the Redskins than they are the Eagles in the standings. And the Giants remaining schedule is relatively tough with another meeting with the Eagles and games at Minnesota and Green Bay. There are few, if any, gimme games in the NFL, and this certainly isn’t a layup. But heck if it ain’t an open 10-foot jump shot. The Giants should knock it down.

What might complicate that is the McNabb factor. He's won his last four games against the Giants and, in his career, is 11-7 (playoffs included) against them. He's thrown 27 touchdowns to nine interceptions in those games. And, although he isn’t much of a runner anymore, McNabb does still have the ability to slip tackles and create time or scramble for a first down. He’s about a notch below David Garrard in that respect.

The Giants have won their last four games against the Redskins and the teams last met a year ago, with the Giants winning 45-12. Eli Manning threw for 268 yards and three touchdowns and Ahmad Bradshaw had 61 yards and two touchdowns on nine rushes.

** David Diehl and Steve Smith, both of whom had limited practice during the week, will sit out today's game. **

Keys to the game

Defensively, there isn't much since the Redskins are limited. Lock in on Moss and Cooley and check for Williams getting check-downs in the flat. Of McNabb's 227 completions, 144 have gone to those three. Armstrong  is quietly emerging as a threat, though. He's averaging 67.2 yards in the last four games. McNabb goes to him only about five times per contest and Armstrong is only catching 47% of them, but his 21.8 yards per catch average says he can stretch the field. Terrell Thomas, who isn't a speedster, will have to be physical with him.

Know how an advantage in talent is often neutralized? Turnovers. The boo-boos and snafus that hold a team back and create the opening for those “How did that happen!?” losses. The Giants are 26th in the league with a -6 on turnovers. The Redskins are a +5 and have forced 21 takeaways. (Hall intercepted Jay Cutler four times in a game.) They've also forced 20 fumbles. So it's very important (it is every week, but some more than others) for the Giants to protect the ball. Manning can’t afford to throw recklessly when pressured up the middle; Bradshaw must sacrifice pushing for an extra foot when surrounded by defenders.

Ball security doesn't necessarily have to come at the expense of aggressiveness. The Giants need to capitalize on Washington's weak pass defense and Landry's absence (he's out with an Achilles injury). The Giants obviously don’t have their full cadre of receivers, but they've got their fastest one. Mario Manningham should be able to get deep and test the safeties Kareem Moore and Reed Doughty, neither of whom is good in coverage. Manningham will likely draw Hall in coverage for most of the snaps, and the corner has the speed to run with him. But Hall does tend to gamble at times and he can be susceptible to sharp routes and double moves. Expect at least a few plays in which Manningham and a tight end (possibly Travis Beckum, who accelerates better than Kevin Boss) are lined up on the same side, both running intermediate-to-deep routes. The combination will force  a safety to make a decision on who to cover and the Giants might be able to catch him out of position. Manning, whose 65.2 completion rate is the highest of his career, is connecting on 69% of his throws to Manningham. The two were at 58% last season.

The Redskins also have difficulty stopping the run, giving up 131.5 yards per game at a league-worst 4.9 YPC. They've been getting burnt around the edges, allowing teams to get 5.69 yards per rush going off left tackle and 4.82 around the right end. Even with a shuffled and undermanned offensive line, the Giants should be able to take advantage of those weaknesses. With Bradshaw's ability to cut back and slash outside, he could be in line for a big game, even as Brandon Jacobs' backup.