Super Bowl as likely to be a classic as a dud

You've got your guacamole. The wings are ordered, drinks are in the fridge, bags of tortillas are sitting in the cupboard and all you need is for Sunday evening to roll around. Six months of heart-stopping, uplifting, painful, joyous, historic, drama-filled football is finally about to come to a close.

But, with all of this anticipation, are we in for a letdown?

No matter who you ask, it seems like the Giants-Patriots rematch is destined to be a taught affair, reminiscent of the teams' first stunning Super Bowl battle four years ago.

According to Super Bowl history, however, there's about as much of a chance of this game being the thriller everyone expects as there is of it being a blowout that people merely remember for the commercials:

- In its 45-year history, the Super Bowl has been decided by seven or less points just 15 times.
- 10 Super Bowls have been decided by 8-14 points.
- 15 Super Bowls have been decided by 15-28 points.
- 5 Super Bowls have been decided by 29 or more points.

There is some hope for a good game in those numbers. For one, every Super Bowl involving Tom Brady has been decided by three points: 20-17 over St. Louis in XXXVI, 32-29 over Carolina in XXXVIII, 24-21 over Philadelphia in XXXIX and, of course, a 17-14 loss to the Giants in XLII.

Plus, the last eight Super Bowls have been decided by two touchdowns or less, and three of the last four games were decided by six points or less.

But Giants Super Bowls tend to be feast or famine. They beat Denver by 19 points, 39-20 in XXI; They beat Buffalo by the closest margin of victory in Super Bowl history, just one point, 20-19 in XXV; They beat the Patriots by three points, 17-14 in XLII; Their lone loss was a 27-point doozy, a 34-7 shellacking by Baltimore in XXXV.

So you never really know what you're getting with Big Blue. But at least you can control the food. Pass the guac.

Cody Derespina's "The Numbers Game" is a Newsday app-only exclusive