Can Mark Sanchez become the next John Elway?

New York Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez talks to reporters in the Jets' locker room in Florham Park, N.J. (Jan. 2, 2012) Credit: AP
Listen to enough sports talk radio and depending on the caller, you might think Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez is the second coming of either John Elway or David Carr.
If it seems like the Jets are betting on Elway, they might not be crazy to do so.
Until late Friday night, Sanchez wasn't even a lock to start next season with the Jets. Despite having a contract, there was loud talk of Gang Green attempting to lure Peyton Manning to the franchise, a move that would have displaced their young passer. But that thought was quashed after the Jets and Sanchez agreed to an extension that should keep him in New York through the 2016 season.
While Sanchez might be uneven at times, there was another comparable, young quarterback with the same penchant for low completion percentages and queasy interception rates: John Elway.
Actually, there are four somewhat comparable quarterbacks. A search of all quarterbacks in football history who were 25 during their third season, started at least 10 games each of their first three seasons and threw for at least 3,400 yards (Sanchez threw for 3,474 last season), yielded five names: Sanchez, Elway, Carr, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco.
Ryan and Flacco have been steady, consistent quarterbacks nearly from the moment they've stepped into the league. They haven't progressed much, but they haven't really needed to either. Not so with Carr and Elway.
Sanchez mirrors Carr most closely in the progression of their yards per game. Sanchez increased his YPG from 162.9 in 2009 to 217.1 in 2011, a plus of 54.2 yards. Carr increased his from 162 in 2002 to 220.7 in 2004, a plus of 58.7. Elway showed the most promise during his early years in this area, going from 151.2 in 1983 to 243.2 in 1985, an increase of 92 yards.
While Carr remained solid but unspectacular in virtually every other area of his game before becoming a backup, Elway remained, like Sanchez, an inconsistent passer with flashes of potential.
Elway's touchdowns increased from seven in 1983 to 22 in 1985; but his interceptions increased along with it, from 14 in 1983 to 23 in 1985. Sanchez increased his touchdowns from 12 in 2009 to 26 in 2011. His threw 20 interceptions his first season before reducing that to 18 last season.
In two of his first three seasons, Elway threw for more interceptions than touchdowns. His completion percentage was just 47.5 during his rookie season, and after his third season it was only 54 percent. His quarterback rating was 54.9 in 1983, 76.8 in 1984 and 70.2 in 1985.
As for Sanchez, his completion percentage was 53.8 his rookie season and was still just 56.7 percent last season. His quarterback rating rose from 63 in 2009 to 78.2 last season.
Elway went to the playoffs each of his first two seasons -- like Sanchez -- before missing out in his third -- like Sanchez.
The Broncos stuck with him.
Elway took Denver to the Super Bowl two times in the 1980s and lost both. It took Elway until the late 1990s, but he won back-to-back Super Bowls and was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2004.
Denver can now look back at Elway's completed career and know they did the right thing when they stuck with a young quarterback who had had his fair share of growing pains.
Someday, the Jets hope to be able to do the same.
Cody Derespina's "The Number's Game" is a Newsday app-only exclusive.
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