Week 2: Patriots vs. Jets

Hello, hello. Stephen Haynes here with you for this week's installment of Gameday Live. I'll be providing stats, updates and stuff – yeah, stuff – during today's game. But we've got a while before the 4:15 p.m. kickoff, so, for now, here's some banter and the useless pregame analysis™ you've come to know and (maybe) love.

It's not a must-win in the sense of it being a game that must be won. The consequences of a loss in Week 2 would be mostly superficial. But we know – as do the Jets – that it's essentially a must-win game. Sitting at 0-2, it would be sort of tough to come back and lead the league in wins. It would be difficult enough from there to accrue enough wins just to make the playoffs in a  competitive division within a tight conference.

Aside from that, entering Week 3 without a win would give the right-of-way to the critics, cynics, naysayers, haters of overt peacocking cockiness, and straight-up haters in general. A loss today would unleash the fervor of those, outside and within the league, who just can't wait to jump the Jets. It would bring on the questioning and chiding of Rex Ryan for his gab and open preseason trumpeting of his team. Whether or not it has anything to do with anything, from atop the soapboxes, the following would be heard: “A team so overhyped and overrated is bound to underachieve. Told you so!” Questions of how focused and disciplined this team is would come up, and the alleged Ines Sainz fiasco would undoubtedly be part of that argument.

What's worse – really, what matters – is they'd be 0-2 in the same division as the 2-0 Patriots. The “same 'ol storyline” storylines would emerge along with the terribly familiar groans of “Same Ol' Jets.” That would be quite a high to have come down from in just seven days and everything – the excitement, the confidence, the team's standing – would have to be re-earned and rebuilt in a hurry. That's pressure.

So, yeah, big game today. It is as much of a must-win as Sept. 19 will allow. A loss wouldn't doom the Jets' season – being reasonable, it can't – but it would change a lot of things; mess up the air, kill the good vibe. Put it like this: they don't have to win, but they better win.

And, needless to say, it'll be a tall order. The Patriots look as strong as they have since the 2007 season. Sure, their defense isn't close to what it used to be, the running game barely exists (more so now with Laurence Maroney gone) and the offensive line isn't quite impenetrable. But they've got the firepower to compensate. Tom Brady now looks fully recovered from the torn ACL in 2008. Despite posting good numbers last season, there were lots of times he missed open receivers, seemed hesitant to make throws and got rid of the ball way too soon. If last week was an indication, he's past that. Wes Welker, coming off an eight-catch, two-touchdown performance, looks recovered enough from his shredded knee.

At the same time, the Jets enter this contest a bit weakened. Kris Jenkins is lost for the year with another torn ACL and Darrelle Revis will be responsible for covering Randy Moss, perhaps the game's best deep threat, while dealing with a tight hamstring. Those two are arguably the Jets' best defensive players. Add that to the fact that the Jets are on a short week and the offense is coming off a disappointing, maybe embarrassing, performance in a 10-9 loss to the Ravens last Monday.

With so much stacked against them and all that's at stake, can the Jets win today? Of course.

Offense
Many of the high hopes for the team come from an expectation of Mark Sanchez progressing in his second year. The, “Hey, if they can reach the AFC title game with a quarterback being somewhat of a liability, imagine what they can do if he becomes productive” thinking. If the Jets truly have Super Bowl aspirations/expectations, they'll have to put Sanchez to the test – get him out of the cocoon – and find out what he's capable of. In a game like this where it's unlikely the opponent will be held to 10 points, it would behoove the Jets to be more aggressive on offense.

The Patriots secondary, outside of strong safety Brandon Meriweather, is inexperienced and three of the four starters are 24 and younger. As well, Bill Belichick no longer has his quartet of wily veteran linebackers. This means the Patriots aren't likely to throw out as many exotic blitzes and complex zone combinations or make as many at-the-line adjustments to confuse quarterbacks as they have in the past. The Jets can take some chances. Rookie cornerback Devin McCourty has good speed (clocked as low as a 4.38 in the 40), but last week he was singed by Chad Ochocinco, who went for 12 catches, 159 yards and a touchdown. That might be a matchup the Jets can exploit with Braylon Edwards, who was thrown to just twice against Baltimore. On the other side, Jerricho Cotchery's precise route-running could be difficult for second-year corner Darius Butler to handle. And maybe some run for David Clowney? The speedy receiver was re-signed last week. His being on the field is almost a tip-off to a post or go route, but Clowney's giddy-up alone gives the secondary something else to worry about. And he is capable of beating single coverage deep.

All that said, the Jets can't get carried away with passing. The running game is still their bread & butter and might be crucial in this game. If for no other reason than to win time of possession and keep the Pats' offense on the sideline. Last week the Patriots held the Bengals to just 87 yards rushing, but a lot of that had to do with New England's offense jumping out to a big lead early. Last season, the Patriots gave up 5.19 yards per carry on the left side of their defensive line. The Jets averaged 4.56 YPC running to their right, behind RT Damien Woody. Do those averages always play out? They often don't. It's just something to know.

Defense
Revis frustrated Moss (and fantasy owners) in both meetings last season, holding him to 58 yards and a cheap touchdown (quick, half slant at the goal line). But Revis' hamstring and Moss' memory of the “slouch” comments almost assures the cornerback will be tested deep a few times. Even last season, there were times when the Patriots seemed hellbent on going at Revis late – probably hoping to tag some yards and a touchdown on him and hurt his reputation. Expect more of that. So the Jets, today, should and probably will give some safety help over the top.

Limit the blitzes on Welker's side. Brady doesn't call as many audibles nor is he as demonstrative at the line as Peyton Manning, but he is very smart with pre-snap reads. And Welker, who often lines up in the weak side slot, has made a living off hot routes and finding vacated areas. Ill-timed blitzes often result in 5-yard curls to Welker that turn into 9-yard conversions on third down. Sometimes his short slants, going against the blitz, turn into 20 yards of YAC. The Jets know this as well as anyone, especially since Welker had 15 receptions for 192 yards the last time he faced them. Antonio Cromartie and Kyle Wilson will have to play Welker tight and keep him in traffic.

The Jets also can't forget about Julian Edelman, who is Welker Lite. He's questionable with a foot injury, but he will be a threat if he plays. Edelman isn't the route runner Welker is, but he is a step faster and the Patriots use him similarly. He had eight catches for 98 yards filling in for Welker in the Jets' Week 2 matchup against the Patriots last year.