NFL Week 10 picks: Eagles beat Giants, Rams edge Seahawks; Dolphins lock of the week

If you’re a Giants fan who finds yourself flipping back and forth between Big Blue and NFL Red Zone on most Sundays, Week 10 will be the rare exception. There are only five 1 p.m. games, and the other four are nothing special. The 4 p.m. slate features a whopping six games, including some interesting matchups in Seahawks-Rams and Bills-Cardinals.

Underdogs continued to bark last week, as favorites went 5-9 against the spread (ATS) after going 4-10 the previous week. Favorites have now dipped to 56-72-2 for the season. Home teams went 5-9 straight up and 7-7 ATS, bringing their totals to 65-67-1 and 59-72-2.

My three most confident picks this week are Miami, the L.A. Rams and Baltimore. Avoid Buffalo-Arizona, a great game but a difficult one to handicap.

1 p.m. Games

PHILADELPHIA (3-4-1) AT GIANTS (2-7)

TV: Ch. 5

Eagles by 3.5; O/U: 44.5

The Giants are 6-3 ATS and have been in all but one game. That includes a 22-21 heartbreaking defeat at Philadelphia on TNF in Week 7 in which they blew a 21-10 fourth-quarter lead. This will be close again but not that close. The Eagles are off a bye, getting healthier and know it’s their division to lose. Expect them to play more disciplined than the first meeting. Daniel Jones is 4-0 vs. Washington but 0-2 against Philadelphia, a team that has owned the Giants of late (eight wins in a row and 12 of 13). Carson Wentz is 7-1 against the Giants.

The pick: Philadelphia

TAMPA BAY (6-3) AT CAROLINA (3-6)

Tampa Bay by 5.5; O/U: 50.5

Week 10 presents the same scenario as Week 2: Tom Brady and the Bucs facing the Panthers off a bad loss to the Saints. Tampa Bay responded the first time in a 31-17 win. I expect another "W" but I'll take a shot this is much closer. Carolina has been in every game this year, and is 5-0 ATS in its last five games as an underdog.

The pick: Carolina

JACKSONVILLE (1-7) AT GREEN BAY (6-2)

Green Bay by 13; O/U: 50

When the spread is this big against a team this bad, just lay the points. The Jaguars have lost seven in a row, and before last week (27), they had given up 30 or more points in six straight. The Packers (6-0 ATS in their six wins) may hit 40-plus.

The pick: Green Bay

HOUSTON (2-6) AT CLEVELAND (5-3)

Cleveland by 3; O/U: 49

Houston is 2-0 vs. Jacksonville and 0-6 vs. everyone else. Cleveland is off a bye and should have Nick Chubb back to bolster a strong rushing attack (150 yards per game) against the NFL's worst run defense (159.5 ypg). If the Browns expect to stay in the wild-card race, this is a must win.

The pick: Cleveland

WASHINGTON (2-6) AT DETROIT (3-5)

Line: OFF (Likely Detroit by 3.5)

This is the Week 10 "Do I really have to pick it?" game. Detroit is hard to trust as a favorite, and with the spread being over the all-important number of 3, take the points.

The pick: Washington

4 p.m. Games

GAME OF THE WEEK

SEATTLE (6-2) AT L.A. RAMS (5-3)

Los Angeles by 1.5; O/U: 54.5

The Rams are 4-2 against the Seahawks since Sean McVay took over, including winning three of the last four. The L.A. coach has had an extra week to prepare, and must have been eating popcorn watching the Bills drop 44 on Seattle. Russell Wilson and the excellent offense overshadow one of the league's worst defenses, which allows 30.4 points per game (third most) and by far the most yards (455.8) and passing yards (362.1). McVay and a rested offense will attack a beatable secondary.

The pick: Los Angeles

BUFFALO (7-2) AT ARIZONA (5-3)

TV: Ch. 2

Arizona by 2; O/U: 56.5

The only two teams to beat Seattle this season face off in what should be a fun one in the desert. This is a toss-up game, but I lean slightly to the hosts because they need the game more in the ultra-competitive NFC West.

The pick: Arizona

CINCINNATI (2-5-1) AT PITTSBURGH (8-0)

TV: Ch. 5

Line: OFF (likely Pittsburgh by 7.5)

This would've been a more ideal spot to back the underdogs had Pittsburgh won big last week instead of its squeaker at Dallas. I'll still back the Bengals, though, who had a week to prepare for this game after their bye followed a win over Tennessee. Joe Burrow will be under constant pressure from the Steelers (NFL-leading 32 sacks), but he's shown a knack for keeping games close: Only one of Cincy’s five losses has been by more than five points and the Bengals are an NFL-best 6-1-1 ATS.

The pick: Cincinnati

SAN FRANCISCO (4-5) AT NEW ORLEANS (6-2)

New Orleans by 9; O/U: 49

These teams played the game of the year in 2019, a 48-46 49ers win (say that 4.9 times fast). The rematch in the Big Easy will be a lot easier for the hosts, who have won five straight. Even if there's a natural letdown for the Saints after last week's 38-3 win at Tampa Bay, they're just too much for an undermanned 49ers team to keep up with.

The pick: New Orleans

LOCK OF THE WEEK

L.A. CHARGERS (2-6) AT MIAMI (5-3)

Miami by 1; O/U: 48

Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert went fifth and sixth overall in this year's NFL Draft, but only one of their teams is trending in the right direction. Miami has won four in a row (all covers) after a 1-3 start, is a serious player for a wild card, and even has a shot at the division. Brian Flores has something special going on with this team, and I don't see it stopping here at home against a Chargers team that even when it plays well finds a way to lose. There’s also great value here with this spread being under three points. I was 0-4 picking Miami games through the first four weeks but have since gone on a 4-0 run. Make it five, as the Dolphins defense has a big day like when the last team from L.A. visited (28-17 win over the Rams in Week 8).

The pick: Miami

DENVER (3-5) AT LAS VEGAS (5-3)

Las Vegas by 4; O/U: 50.5

Both teams' last wins were over the Chargers on last-second plays in the end zone, one a Broncos TD catch and one a defensive stop by the Raiders. These AFC West games remind me of the NFC East clashes: Always close and unpredictable. Denver can lose by a field goal.

The pick: Denver

SUNDAY NIGHT

BALTIMORE (6-2) AT NEW ENGLAND (3-5)

TV: Ch. 4

Line: OFF (likely Baltimore by 7)

This is a lot of points to lay on the road, but after the Patriots let Joe Flacco light them up on Monday night, they won't be able to contain the current Ravens quarterback, either. Lamar Jackson and Baltimore's relentless run game will have its way against an overmatched Pats defense. New England lost its last two home games to Denver (18-12) and San Francisco (33-6).

The pick: Baltimore

MONDAY NIGHT

MINNESOTA (3-5) AT CHICAGO (5-4)

TV: ESPN

Minnesota by 2.5; O/U: 43

The 3-5 team being favored on the road over the 5-4 team tells you everything you need to know about this one. Dalvin Cook (369 rushing yards and five TDs) and the Vikings have heated up in two wins after their bye, including at Green Bay. The Bears were never as good as their 5-1 record suggested. This will still be close, and the fact that Kirk Cousins is 0-3 vs. Chicago since joining Minnesota scares me a bit. But to steal a line from former Vikings coach Dennis Green, "the Bears are who we thought they were."

The pick: Minnesota