NFL Week 2 picks: Giants a lock in Arizona, Jets cover big number; KC wins at Jacksonville

The Bengals, Giants and Steelers aren’t that bad. The Browns, Rams and 49ers aren’t that good. OK, the 49ers probably are. Now, say Week 1 backward, because that’s all it was: one week. Yes, some developments should give you pause, but it’s important to remember things change in a hurry in the NFL.

Underdogs went 10-6 against the spread (ATS) last week, with seven winning outright.

My most confident picks ATS this week are the Giants, Kansas City and Miami. Stay away from Washington-Denver and New Orleans-Carolina, which is the first of two Monday night games this week.

THE LOCALS

JETS (1-0) AT DALLAS (1-0)

TV: CBS, 4:25 p.m.

Dallas by 9.5; O/U: 38.5

What should’ve been a marquee matchup with Aaron Rodgers returning to Dallas, a place he’s thrived in his career, is now a repeat of the 2022 season: How many points can a Zach Wilson-led offense score? My first thought was to just pick Dallas in what could easily be another one-sided game against a New York team. This Jets defense is so good, though, and if the offense can get to 17 points, that should be enough to cover this inflated number. Lean on Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook early, get the ball to Garrett Wilson and don’t make any game-changing mistakes. Teams tend to rally around a backup quarterback. Also, Dallas’ defense and special teams were so dominant early in last week’s win that we don’t really know what its offense is at this point.

The pick: Jets

LOCK OF THE WEEK

GIANTS (0-1) AT ARIZONA (0-1)

TV: Fox, 4:05 p.m.

Giants by 4.5; O/U: 39.5

Has an NFL team ever lost 40-0 and won 40-0 the next week? Kidding, of course, but that’s how confident I am in the Giants bouncing back from their embarrassing opener. According to Bet Labs, there have been 62 instances of teams losing by double digits in Week 1 since 2014, and those teams are 39-22-1 ATS the following week. With a Thursday night matchup at San Francisco on deck, expect Brian Daboll to have his team laser focused. Yes, Arizona had six sacks in Week 1 and the Giants allowed seven, but the Giants have a much better roster and coaching staff. The shocking shutout should light a fire under them.

The pick: Giants

GAME OF THE WEEK

KANSAS CITY (0-1) AT JACKSONVILLE (1-0)

Kansas City by 3.5; O/U: 51.5 (1 p.m.)

After Kansas City dropped the NFL 2023 season opener — with the key word being dropped — I couldn’t wait to pick the defending champs this week. Patrick Mahomes has only lost back-to-back games three times over his 81-game career; he is 13-3 after a loss. Now the team is likely getting back Travis Kelce and Chris Jones, their second and third most important players. Jacksonville will want to make a statement against the team that knocked it out of the playoffs, and the forecast (85 degrees and thunderstorms) could make things interesting, but I’m not going against Mahomes in this spot. Especially not on his 28th birthday.

The pick: Kansas City

1 p.m. Games

BALTIMORE (1-0) AT CINCINNATI (0-1)

Cincinnati by 3; O/U: 46.5

The Bengals were beaten up in a 24-3 loss to the Browns, but no team is as beat up as the Ravens after losing key players to injury. Baltimore almost won at Cincinnati in the playoffs last year without Lamar Jackson, so expect a close rivalry game. Still, Joe Burrow & Co. will go all-out to avoid another 0-2 start and Jackson and the offense looked rusty in their new system.

The pick: Cincinnati

LAS VEGAS (1-0) AT BUFFALO (0-1)

Buffalo by 8.5; O/U: 47 (CBS)

Pick. Pick. Pick. This pick comes down to believing that Josh Allen will bounce back from his three-interception (four turnover) performance against the Jets. Allen is 28-11 straight up at home and 36-18 in the 1 p.m. window. This just feels like a never-in-doubt, two-TD win.

The pick: Buffalo

L.A. CHARGERS (0-1) AT TENNESSEE (0-1)

Los Angeles by 3; O/U: 45.5

These teams specialize in close games: The Titans lost, 16-15; the Chargers lost, 36-34. Titans coach Mike Vrabel is now 23-9-1 ATS when getting at least three points. I’ll still side with the visitors, who have more offensive firepower and should take advantage of an overmatched offensive line.

The pick: L.A. Chargers

INDIANAPOLIS (0-1) AT HOUSTON (0-1)

Houston by 1.5; O/U: 39.5

One of these rookie quarterbacks is going to earn his first win . . . or are they? The last time these teams played in Houston, it was a 20-20 tie in the 2022 season opener. The Colts’ offense had its moments in Week 1. The Texans’ defense held the Ravens to 265 yards. Coin flip.

The pick: Houston

SEATTLE (0-1) AT DETROIT (1-0)

Detroit by 4.5; O/U: 47.5

Seattle is dealing with multiple offensive line injuries and that’s not ideal going up against Aidan Hutchinson and a rested Lions team off a confidence-building win at Kansas City. Matthew Stafford gashed the Seahawks, and former Ram Jared Goff has the weapons to do the same.

The pick: Detroit

GREEN BAY (1-0) AT ATLANTA (1-0)

Atlanta by 1.5; O/U: 40.5

So much for thinking the Packers wouldn’t be the same with Jordan Love. The Falcons have improved, but their inability to pass the ball will prevent them from completing a 2-0 start.

The pick: Green Bay

CHICAGO (0-1) AT TAMPA BAY (1-0)

Tampa Bay by 2.5; O/U: 40.5

Before the season, the Bears were one of my “over” teams and the Bucs one of my “under” teams. Now, the Bears may be who most thought they were, but I’m going to chalk up the Week 1 dud against Green Bay as a team that put too much pressure on itself trying to reverse decades of failure.

The pick: Chicago

4 p.m. Games

SAN FRANCISCO (1-0) AT L.A. RAMS (1-0)

San Francisco by 7; O/U: 45

For whatever reason, Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers own Sean McVay’s Rams in the regular season. They have won the last eight meetings (24-9 and 31-14 last year). Even though L.A. looked great in a surprising win at Seattle last week, expect the trend to continue.

The pick: San Francisco

WASHINGTON (1-0) AT DENVER (0-1)

Denver by 3.5; O/U: 39.5

Denver’s Sean Payton Era started the same way as the Nathaniel Hackett Era: A 17-16 loss. I didn’t feel good about laying the 3.5 points with Denver last week, and don’t want to do it again.

The pick: Washington

SUNDAY NIGHT

MIAMI (1-0) AT NEW ENGLAND (0-1)

TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m.

Miami by 3; O/U: 46.5

Tua Tagovailoa (466 yards, 3 TDs) and Tyreek Hill (11 catches, 215 yards, 2 TDs) are the most electric QB-WR combo in the NFL. That isn’t an overreaction. Don’t expect the same production but count on another win. Tagovailoa is 4-0 straight up vs. New England.

The pick: Miami

MONDAY NIGHT

NEW ORLEANS (1-0) AT CAROLINA (0-1)

TV: ESPN, ESPN2, 7:15 p.m.

New Orleans by 3; O/U: 40

The Saints lead the all-time series, 29-28, but the Panthers took both games last year. Derek Carr’s winning debut wasn’t pretty. Carolina’s defense helps No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young earn his first NFL win.

The pick: Carolina

CLEVELAND (1-0) AT PITTSBURGH (0-1)

TV: ABC, ESPN+, 8:15 p.m.

Cleveland by 2.5; O/U: 38.5

Cleveland being favored feels like a bit of an overreaction and (handed a white piece of paper), this just in, everyone: According to SportsLine, the Steelers have won 20 MNF home games in a row and beaten the Browns at home 19 straight times.

The pick: Pittsburgh

By Joe Manniello

joe.manniello@newsday.com@joe_manniello

Joe Manniello, an editor on the sports copy desk, has written the NFL picks column since 2015. Manniello joined Newsday in 2004. He graduated from St. John's.