NFL Week 8 picks: Jets, Giants rebound; 49ers go to 7-0; Seahawks lock of the week

This has been the year of the big spread. Including Thursday night, there are five games this week with double-digit lines. Favorites of 10 points or more are 6-6 against the spread this season. Betting these games can be tricky because of backdoor covers, but remember: There's a reason these teams are getting so many points.

Underdogs had their first losing week of the season in Week 7, going 6-8 ATS. They are 61-44-1 for the season. Road teams went 9-5 straight up and ATS last week and are 64-38-2 (not including London games)

My most confident picks ATS this week are the Seahawks, Giants, Jets, Raiders and 49ers. Two tricky games to avoid: Chargers-Bears and Bucs-Titans.

GIANTS (2-5) AT LIONS (2-3-1)

TV: Ch. 5, 1 p.m.

Lions by 7; O/U: 49.5

If you don't feel comfortable backing a Giants team on a three-game skid, it's understandable. Let me try to convince you why they're the right play here. The biggest reason: This is just too many points to lay with Detroit. The Lions always play close, tense games. Before last week’s 42-30 loss to the Vikings (21-21 and 28-24 at one point), Detroit’s first six games went like this: Tie, win by 3, win by 3, loss by 4, loss by 1. Detroit just placed its top running back on IR and traded its defensive captain, a move so unpopular that Lions players tweeted their disbelief and disgust. Saquon Barkley will have running room, and Daniel Jones will have time to throw, especially on play-action passes. This should be a high-scoring game, so take the points and thank me later.

The pick: Giants

JETS (1-5) AT JAGUARS (3-4)

TV: Ch. 2, 1 p.m.

Jaguars by 6.5; O/U: 40.5

When a team gets embarrassed on national TV the way the Jets did Monday night, it's usually a sound strategy to back them in their next game. Sam Darnold won't be "seeing ghosts" in Jacksonville, and I expect a spirited effort from the quarterback and defense after a 33-0 shellacking. When a team plays its worst, it has a tendency to rebound (see: Dallas, which went from flat in a loss to the Jets to flat-out unstoppable against the Eagles). The Jets will be in this game the whole way. The Jaguars were trailing at winless Cincinnati in the fourth quarter last week so it’s not as if they’re some juggernaut. This line went up a point or two after MNF, making the Jets a good value pick.

The pick: Jets

GAME OF THE WEEK

PANTHERS (4-2) AT 49ERS (6-0)

4:05 p.m.

49ers by 6; O/U: 42

If you like defense, this is your game. The 49ers, like the Patriots, are mainly undefeated because of dominating with a capital D. San Francisco has allowed 3, 7 and 0 points in its last three wins over the Browns, Rams and Redskins, and while the Panthers offense is rested off a bye and has Christian McCaffrey, the 49ers' 'D' will be the difference again. Kyle Allen is 4-0 as a starter but hasn't faced Nick Bosa or a pass rush like this. Or a secondary like this. Carolina doesn't have a true No. 1 receiver so expect defensive coordinator Robert Saleh's group to clamp down on McCaffrey and make Allen beat them. The 49ers allow the second-fewest points (10.7) and yards (223.5). Carolina has a solid defense itself, and has an NFL-best 27 sacks (San Fran has 20). But it allows 119 rushing yards per game, so Kyle Shanahan's run schemes should be able to hit for some big plays. This feels like a 17-10, 20-13 kind of game. With the Panthers being the popular upset pick this week — something Saleh has probably reminded his defense of — I'll continue to ride a superior defense that is feeding off the doubters as San Fran gets to 7-0.

The pick: 49ers

1 p.m. Games

EAGLES (3-4) AT BILLS (5-1)

Bills by 2.5; O/U: 43.5

Your first thought might be to pick Philadelphia solely because they were supposed to go far this season and can't possibly lose three in a row to drop to 3-5. But we’re two months into the season now, and it’s time to forget about preconceived notions. As desperate as Philadelphia is, this is a bad spot. The Eagles (2-5 ATS) are playing their third straight road game after lopsided defeats at Minnesota (38-20) and Dallas (37-10). Buffalo (4-2 ATS) doesn’t have an offense like those teams, but it has a top defense and its secondary should give Carson Wentz fits. Remember what it did to Tom Brady in Week 4? Look for a similar showing as Buffalo makes a late defensive stand.

The pick: Bills

CARDINALS (3-3-1) AT SAINTS (6-1)

Saints by 10.5; O/U: 47.5

New Orleans is 5-0 straight up and ATS without Drew Brees, which might be the most incredible stat this season. The Saints' six wins are double that of the teams the Cardinals have beaten on their three-game win streak: winless Cincinnati, one-win Atlanta and the two-win Giants. Kyler Murray will be slowed by a smothering Saints defense in the Superdome. (Bettors beware of the backdoor cover, though and proceed with caution).

The pick: Saints

LONDON GAME

BENGALS (0-7) VS. RAMS (4-3)

Rams by 13; O/U: 48

The last time the Rams played in London, they crushed the Cardinals, 33-0, in 2017. Zac Taylor was part of Sean McVay's staff then and now he's still waiting for his first coaching win with the Bengals. Although Cincinnati has covered twice as big underdogs, this will be tough against a Rams team that should exploit one of the NFL's worst defenses as it builds off last week's 37-10 win.

The pick: Rams

LOCK OF THE WEEK

SEAHAWKS (5-2) AT FALCONS (1-6)

Line: OFF; O/U: OFF

(Note: This line is off because of Matt Ryan’s uncertain status. If the Falcons QB plays, the spread will likely be Seahawks -3 or 3.5; if he doesn’t, it will likely be Seahawks by 6.5)

“If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” could be applied to handicapping strategies. Just keep picking against Atlanta, which has lost five in a row and is 0-5 ATS during its skid. Matt Ryan is hurting, the defense can't stop anyone and now the Falcons welcome Russell Wilson off Seattle’s worst loss of the season. Wilson is 29-7 after a loss. The Falcons' opponent was my lock last week and I'm going back to it, no matter which spread. If it ain't broke . . .

The pick: Seahawks

BRONCOS (2-5) AT COLTS (4-2)

Colts by 5.5; O/U: 43

The last time Indy was favored by a similar number at home, it fell behind early and lost to Oakland in Week 4. While that game gives me some pause, it’s not enough to switch horses in a matchup of two teams trending in different directions. Indy (5-1 ATS) is well-coached, and Frank Reich won’t allow a letdown after a big division win over Houston.

The pick: Colts

CHARGERS (2-5) AT BEARS (3-3)

Bears by 4; O/U: 41

Pick your poison: The hosts with the most boring offense or the snake-bitten visitors. The Chargers (1-6 ATS) have lost five of six, with the lone victory at winless Miami, and continue to find new ways to lose. Still, Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears -- the only offense in the NFL without at least 300 yards in a game -- can't be trusted as favorites of anything over a field goal.

The pick: Chargers

BUCS (2-4) AT TITANS (3-4)

Titans by 2.5; O/U: 45.5

Every week it feels impossible trying to handicap Titans games. The same applies to an inconsistent Bucs team. Tampa Bay gets the slight edge because it’s off a bye after a bad loss in London and has the NFL’s top-ranked rushing defense (68 yards per game). It’s too bad we didn’t get a Jameis Winston-Marcus Mariota rematch from Week 1 of the 2015 season, when the No. 2 pick Mariota led a 42-14 win over No. 1 pick Winston.

The pick: Bucs

4 p.m. Games 

BROWNS (2-4) AT PATRIOTS (7-0)

Patriots by 13; O/U: 45.5

TV: Ch. 2

With a favorable schedule after this game, the Browns can still make a playoff run. I’m not just saying that because the Browns were my Super Bowl pick (let me know when you stop laughing). Cleveland has had two weeks to think about all the missed opportunities in a 32-28 loss to Seattle, a game it led 20-6. Cleveland has mostly played well after a loss this season, so I’ll take a shot that a desperate Browns team off its bye shows up and plays with some fire against the defending champs.

The pick: Browns

RAIDERS (3-3) AT TEXANS (4-3)

Texans by 6.5; O/U: 51.5

It’s amazing how one play can completely change a game. Just ask the Raiders, who were a yard away from possibly taking a 17-14 halftime lead at Lambeau last week before the touchback fumble led to a 21-10 deficit. That 14-point swing meant everything, and it hid how improved Oakland really is. Expect Derek Carr and Jon Gruden’s grinders to rebound and be in a close game at Houston, which is always involved in nail-biters: three of its four wins decided by 1, 7 and 7 points and the three losses by 2, 6 and 7.

The pick: Raiders

SUNDAY NIGHT

PACKERS (6-1) AT CHIEFS (5-2) 

TV: Ch. 4

Packers by 3.5; O/U: 47.5

Green Bay might be the most fortunate 6-1 team in NFL history. Five of its first seven games at home? Check. Almost every bounce and call going its way? Check. Not having to face Patrick Mahomes at Arrowhead in prime time? Discount double check. Considering KC lost its last two home games with Mahomes, it's hard to see it staying close enough to cover against Aaron Rodgers and a well-balanced Packers team.

The pick: Packers

MONDAY NIGHT

DOLPHINS (0-6) AT STEELERS (2-4)

Steelers by 14; O/U: 43.5

Another week, another huge spread in a Dolphins game. They covered last week's (+17) at Buffalo, and while this is a ton of points to lay with a two-win team, I'll bet against Miami again because Pittsburgh is at home off a bye and its defense could score 14 points on its own.

The pick: Steelers