NFL Thanksgiving betting guide: Packers-Lions, Commanders-Cowboys and 49ers-Seahawks picks and plays

Thanksgiving is all about favorites. Turkey, stuffing, pumpkin pie, just to name a few. This year’s plate of games heavily favors the favorites, and while we don’t see any close contests, let’s set the table for what should be a lot of points from a little after noon to right before midnight.

(Odds from FanDuel, as of Wednesday night)

GREEN BAY PACKERS (4-6) AT DETROIT LIONS (8-2)

TV: Fox, 12:30 p.m.

Detroit by 7.5; O/U: 46.5

The Lions fell into last Sunday’s trap game for 57 minutes before escaping with a 31-26 win over the Bears. They trailed 26-14 with three minutes left. You don’t have to worry about them being unfocused on Thanksgiving. In years past, they’d always give their all in their annual standalone game, but often lose to the more talented team. Now the tables have turned. Detroit is closing in on its first division crown since 1993. It already beat Green Bay in Week 4, a 34-20 win that was 27-3 at halftime. Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown will feast. A team beating another team twice on Thursdays in the same season has to be a first, right? Maybe the broadcast will let us know around 4 p.m.

THE PICK: Detroit

THE PROP: Jordan Love Over 228.5 Passing Yards (-114).

If Detroit is winning big like we expect, that means the Packers will need to play catch-up. Love was 27-for-40 for a season-high 322 yards last week. He threw for 289 the week before.

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (4-7) AT DALLAS COWBOYS (7-3)

TV: CBS, 4:30 p.m.

Dallas by 12.5; O/U: 48.5

In recent years, Dallas has sometimes been flat on Thanksgiving, even getting blown out by Washington in 2020. In 2023, the Cowboys are the hosts with the most lopsided wins. Just look at these scores: 30-10, 38-3, 43-20 and 49-17. The Jets, Patriots, Rams and Giants aren’t top competition, but neither are the Commanders, who are 0-4 vs. the NFC East after getting swept by the Eagles and Giants. Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb should carve up a Commanders secondary that last week allowed Tommy DeVito to throw three TD passes. Sam Howell has been sacked an NFL-high 51 times. It all adds up to Dallas doing what it’s done all season at home: beating the stuffing out of teams.

THE PICK: Dallas

THE PROP: First TD Scorer (Jake Ferguson, +1000). The tight end scored Dallas’ first home TD of the season in the win over the Jets. He also scored the first TD vs. the Rams. Prescott likes looking his way, especially early (three of his 4 TD catches have put Dallas on the board). Here's a bonus prop, going the "alternate spread" route: Prescott 4+ TD passes at +750). 

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (7-3) AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (6-4)

TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m.

San Francisco by 7; O/U: 43.5

This was supposed to be the best candidate to keep you on the edge of your seat. Instead, don’t be surprised if you doze off. The resurgent 49ers followed up their 34-3 win at Jacksonville with a 27-14 home win over Tampa Bay. They have looked more like the team that started 5-0 than the one that lost three straight before its bye week. The 49ers beat the Seahawks three times last season (each result would’ve covered this spread, for what it’s worth). Geno Smith is dealing with a triceps bruise and may rethink playing after seeing Nick Bosa and Chase Young. Yes, this is a big number to lay on the road in a divisional game, but San Francisco looks like its super self again. Remember, the 49ers closed out last year’s regular season with 10 straight wins, and we could be getting a repeat.

THE PICK: San Francisco

THE PROP: Same Game Parlay, Anytime TD Scorer: Christian McCaffrey + Brandon Aiyuk + George Kittle (+1245). These kinds of plays are long shots but get the family to all throw in a buck and have some fun. The way Brock Purdy and the 49ers are firing on all cylinders, you never know. 

By Joe Manniello

joe.manniello@newsday.com@joe_manniello

Joe Manniello, an editor on the sports copy desk, has written the NFL picks column since 2015. Manniello joined Newsday in 2004. He graduated from St. John's.