Week 12 Thanksgiving Day picks: On turkey day, go with home cooking as Lions, Cowboys and Saints cover

Thanksgiving always has been my favorite holiday. The fourth Thursday in November is all about good spreads, and from an NFL picks standpoint, I've feasted the last three seasons with an 8-1 record ATS, including 3-0 marks the last two years.

Home teams are 9-2 on Thursdays this season and 8-2-1 ATS. Four of the six NFC teams in action have playoff hopes, and while none of the matchups are mouth-watering, there's still plenty of intrigue to sink your teeth into.

BEARS (7-3) AT LIONS (4-6)

TV: Ch. 2, 12:30 p.m.

Line: Bears by 2.5; O/U: 43.5 

Chicago just beat Detroit, 34-22, on Nov. 11, a game that wasn't even that close as the Bears jumped out to leads of 26-7 and 34-10. They won't have as easy a time in the rematch, and that was the thought even before QB Mitchell Trubisky was listed as doubtful because of a shoulder injury. For starters, sweeping a division rival is never easy, and especially not when then matchups are 11 days apart. Secondly, this is Detroit's Super Bowl before a holiday home crowd and national TV audience. Before last year, the Lions had won and covered four straight Thanksgiving games. I'll scoop up the points, and don't be surprised if Matthew Stafford (5-0 vs. Bears in last five meetings in Detroit) leads a late win.

The pick: Lions

REDSKINS (6-4) AT COWBOYS (5-5)

TV: Ch. 5, 4:30 p.m.

Line: Cowboys by 7; O/U: 40.5

When Dallas lost by 14 at home to Tennessee on MNF in Week 9, the Cowboys were written off. Now, after a pair of impressive road wins at Philadelphia and Atlanta, Dallas has a shot to win its third game in 12 days and be in first place in the NFC East. How 'bout them Cowboys! The belief here is that they not only will win and cover against the Colt McCoy-led Redskins but go on to win the division. Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott, who had never lost to Washington before Week 7's last-second 20-17 defeat, will get back on track at home as the offense feeds Elliott 25-plus times for a big day. Dallas' defense has been the story, and its pass rush and linebacker play will stymie the Redskins as the Cowboys hook the former Longhorn McCoy.

The pick: Cowboys 

FALCONS (4-6) AT SAINTS (9-1)

TV: Ch. 4, 8:20 p.m.

Line: Saints by 13; O/U: 59.5

Tryptophan. It might be the only thing that can slow down this Saints team. New Orleans has won nine in a row and covered the last eight. Its last three wins were 45-35, 51-14 and 48-7, making them just the fourth team to ever score 45 or more points in three straight games. If any team can cover such a big number on a short week against a division foe, it's the Saints. Plus, with the Rams getting to 10-1 on Monday night, New Orleans won't take its foot off the gas as it eyes the No. 1 seed. New Orleans won the first matchup, a 43-37 overtime thriller at Atlanta in Week 3. This one will be over in no time as Drew Brees (25 TDs, 1 INT) and the Saints offense (NFL-best 37.8 points per game) carve up that Falcons defense (27.6 ppg allowed).

The pick: Saints

STAFF PICKS

Bob Glauber: Bears, Cowboys Falcons

Tom Rock: Lions, Cowboys, Saints

Al Iannazzone: Bears, Cowboys, Falcons