NFL Week 1 picks: Jets, Giants open with prime-time wins; Bears lock of week

After one of the most exciting NFL offseasons in recent memory, it’s time. Time for 272 regular-season games, RedZone countdowns, controversial penalties and, of course, second-guessing. A whole lot of it.

The best advice for picking Week 1 games is, well, not to pick too many. There’s so much uncertainty it’s best to just find one or two games you like. One thing to keep an eye on: underdogs. They usually thrive early on. Check out this stat from ESPN: Divisional home underdogs are 7-0 against the spread (ATS) in Week 1 over the past five seasons. We’re looking at you, Jets and Giants.

My most confident picks ATS are Chicago, Pittsburgh and Cleveland. Stay away from Las Vegas-Denver and Arizona-Washington.

MONDAY NIGHT

BUFFALO AT JETS

TV: ESPN, ABC, 8:15 p.m.

Buffalo by 2.5; O/U: 45.5

Will Tuesday night’s team own Monday night, too? All eyes are on Aaron Rodgers and the darlings of “Hard Knocks,” with plenty of observers wanting the overhyped, overconfident Jets to fail. It won’t happen this week, as Rodgers, Garrett Wilson and the Jets outlast Josh Allen & Co. in a thriller. This game, like so many, will be decided at the line of scrimmage. Advantage: Jets. Sure, their offensive line needs to prove itself, but this is more about Gang Green’s deep, dominant defensive line.  The Jets sacked Allen five times and intercepted him twice in last year’s 20-17 win at MetLife, and last year’s No. 4 defense is even better now. Rodgers will benefit from not facing Von Miller. The hype train rolls on: Jets 24, Bills 20.

The pick: Jets

SUNDAY NIGHT

DALLAS AT GIANTS

TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m.

Dallas by 3.5; O/U: 45.5

Brian Daboll led the Giants to a road playoff win and was named Coach of the Year in his first season. It was a complete success . . . except for the division record (1-4-1 in the regular season). That included two losses to the Cowboys, who are 11-1 in the last 12 meetings. Tough to ignore, but I believe in Daboll more than Mike McCarthy. The Giants’ NFL-best 13-4 ATS record last year also helps. Their MetLife co-habitants stole the offseason, but the Giants had a sneaky good one. Darren Waller, Parris Campbell and Jalin Hyatt should elevate Daniel Jones’ game. It starts with a back-and-forth Week 1 win, with the speedster Hyatt being the difference-maker.

The pick: Giants

1 p.m. Games

SAN FRANCISCO AT PITTSBURGH

TV: Fox

San Francisco by 2.5; O/U: 41.5 

The 49ers’ defense will show up (Nick Bosa included), but it’s Brock Purdy and the offense that gives me pause. After offseason elbow surgery, Purdy gets a tough test against T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick. More reasons to like the hosts, from ESPN: The Steelers are 7-1-2 ATS as home underdogs over the last five years, and coach Mike Tomlin is 14-5-2 ATS and 13-8 straight up in those same scenarios. Also: Pittsburgh is 3-0 ATS in its last three openers; San Francisco is 0-3.

The pick: Pittsburgh

CINCINNATI AT CLEVELAND

TV: CBS

Cincinnati by 1.5; O/U: 47.5

Joe Burrow is 1-4 against the Browns, including 0-2 at Cleveland. Now Burrow must run away from Myles Garrett after dealing with a calf injury this summer. Cincinnati will be the best team in Ohio this season, just not this week.

The pick: Cleveland

HOUSTON AT BALTIMORE

Baltimore by 10; O/U: 43.5

If this game was played next month, I’d feel comfortable laying double digits. But Baltimore has a new offense, and it may not click right away. Houston will play hard for DeMeco Ryans in his head coaching debut.

The pick: Houston

JACKSONVILLE AT INDIANAPOLIS

Jacksonville by 4.5; O/U: 46.5

Anthony Richardson is the ultimate Week 1 wild card, but I’m willing to roll the dice on the rookie QB at home in what could be the frontrunner for the “I can’t believe how close that game was” award.

The pick: Indianapolis

TENNESSEE AT NEW ORLEANS

New Orleans by 3; O/U: 41.5

Titans coach Mike Vrabel thrives as an underdog: According to ESPN, Tennessee is 23-14-1 ATS in those spots, including 22-9-1 when getting at least three points.

The pick: Tennessee

CAROLINA AT ATLANTA

Atlanta by 3.5; O/U: 39.5

The spotlight is on No. 1 pick Bryce Young, but No. 8 pick Bijan Robinson will run away with it. The run-heavy Falcons will ground and pound their way to a close win behind the electric rookie back.

The pick: Atlanta

TAMPA BAY AT MINNESOTA

Minnesota by 5.5; O/U: 45.5

The Vikings were a remarkable 11-0 in one-score games last regular season. They’ll start this year with a double-digit win.

The pick: Minnesota

ARIZONA AT WASHINGTON

Washington by 7; O/U: 38.5

Joshua Dobbs vs. Sam Howell! Arizona likely won’t be favored all season. Washington likely won’t be this big of a favorite again. But this is too many points to lay with an unproven quarterback. 

The pick: Arizona

4:25 p.m. Games

MIAMI AT L.A. CHARGERS

Los Angeles by 3; O/U: 50.5

Tua Tagovailoa (No. 5 overall) and Justin Herbert (No. 6) will forever be linked by the 2020 draft. This game is so even, a 20-20 tie wouldn’t surprise me. When in doubt, take the points.

The pick: Miami

PHILADELPHIA AT NEW ENGLAND

TV: CBS

Philadelphia by 4; O/U: 45

This is another game that if it was played in, say, Week 7 instead of Week 1, I’d likely pick the other team. I like the Patriots to keep this close at home. Mac Jones will benefit from having Bill O’Brien as offensive coordinator, and while the defending NFC champs are still loaded, the fact they lost both coordinators isn’t being talked about enough. Another golden nugget from ESPN: Since 2000, the Super Bowl runner-up is 4-19 ATS in Week 1,  including an 0-3 run.

The pick: New England

LOCK OF THE WEEK

GREEN BAY AT CHICAGO

TV: Fox

Chicago by 1.5; O/U: 41.5

I wrote this in last week’s “Over/Under” season picks column, but it bears repeating: Chicago may have had the greatest offseason in its 103-year history. Not only did the Bears get Justin Fields a No. 1 WR in D.J. Moore among other strong moves, they bid farewell to “team owner” Aaron Rodgers. Packers coach Matt LaFleur is 8-0 ATS and straight up against Chicago (ESPN), but that was with Rodgers. Let’s see how Green Bay looks with Jordan Love and none of its usual star power. No team wants to make a statement in Week 1 more than the Bears, who will do just that with a win over its rival in what I feel is the first step in a surprising run to the final NFC wild-card spot.

The pick: Chicago

L.A. RAMS AT SEATTLE

Seattle by 4; O/U: 46.5

The Rams played Seattle tough last year in 27-23 and 19-16 (OT) losses, so getting this many points in a division matchup is tempting. But Cooper Kupp won’t play and Matthew Stafford and a young L.A. team won’t be able to keep up with an improved Seahawks squad.

The pick: Seattle

LAS VEGAS AT DENVER

Denver by 3.5; O/U: 44

The winner gets the inside track for third place in the AFC West. Can Sean Payton elevate Russell Wilson’s game after last year’s setback? Maybe. Denver is a difficult place to play, so I’ll begrudgingly lay the points.

The pick: Denver

By Joe Manniello

joe.manniello@newsday.com@joe_manniello

Joe Manniello, an editor on the sports copy desk, has written the NFL picks column since 2015. Manniello joined Newsday in 2004. He graduated from St. John's.