NFL Week 11 picks: Chiefs outlast Rams; Giants beat Bucs, Steelers lock of week, Saints keep covering

There are so many difficult spreads and toss-up games this week that I may take a reader's advice and invest in some darts.

Underdogs ruled again last week, going 8-5-1 against the spread to increase their season lead to 73-63-7. There are six teams on a bye this week, including the entire AFC East.

My most-confident picks ATS are the Steelers, Panthers, Saints and Cardinals. Tricky games to avoid, and there are lots, include Titans-Colts, Bengals-Ravens and Vikings-Bears.

Remember, I pick every game but you don't have to.

GAME OF THE WEEK
MONDAY NIGHT
CHIEFS (9-1) AT RAMS (9-1)
TV: ESPN, 8:15 p.m.
Rams by 3.5; O/U: 63
Before this game was moved from Mexico City to Los Angeles, the Rams were favored by fewer than a field goal. With the line shifting, scoop up the points and back the Chiefs. L.A. doesn't have a home-field advantage (remember the Packers game when it was LAmbeau West?), and there should be plenty of red in the stands. It's hard to see either team running away with it. Think Chiefs-Pats, when despite losing 43-40, Kansas City covered as 3.5-point underdogs. Both offenses are electric, with the Chiefs averaging 35.3 points per game and the Rams 33.5. Both defenses have issues, but the Rams just allowed a whopping 273 rushing yards to the Seahawks. That makes me think Kareem Hunt could hurdle his way to a big night. That will set up the play-action pass for Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs are 7-2-1 ATS. The Rams are 4-5-1 and haven't covered in nearly a month. Call it Chiefs 34, Rams 31, and even if the Rams prevail by the same score, you're still a winner with +3.5.
The pick: Chiefs

BUCS (3-6) AT GIANTS (2-7)
TV: Ch. 5, 1 p.m.
Giants by 2; O/U: 52
The Giants are winless at home, and are 0-4 ATS to boot, but this is their best shot to snap both those skids. The Bucs allow an NFL-high 32.3 points per game. Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. should have plenty of opportunities like they did in the MNF win. Tampa Bay scored three points last week despite totaling 501 yards. Four turnovers will do that, and the Giants could feast on mistake-prone Ryan Fitzpatrick. Tampa Bay has lost six of seven after a 2-0 start, and is on a 1-5-1 ATS run.
The pick: Giants

1 P.M. GAMES

LOCK OF THE WEEK
STEELERS (6-2-1) AT JAGUARS (3-6)
Steelers by 5; O/U: 47
Pittsburgh has won and covered five in a row, and it won't let up against a team that embarrassed them twice on its home field last season. The Jaguars have lost five straight (0-4-1 ATS) and look nothing like last year's team that followed up a 30-9 regular-season win at Heinz Field with a shocking upset in the AFC divisional round. Jacksonville led 21-0 and 28-7 in that 45-42 win. Pittsburgh, which has extra rest after last week's 52-point eruption, can jump out to the early lead thus time and then tee off on Blake Bortles. Now that the Le'Veon Bell drama is officially behind them, expect super sub James Conner, Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown to have big days as the Steelers get some payback and keep rolling toward a first-round bye.
The pick: Steelers

BENGALS (5-4) AT RAVENS (4-5)
Line & O/U: OFF (Ravens QB)
Not knowing if Joe Flacco will play makes this a tough one to pick (If he plays, it'll probably be Ravens -4; if not, below a field goal). But even if rookie Lamar Jackson makes his starting debut, it's hard to see Cincinnati's defense making enough stops. The Bengals fired their 'D' coordinator after becoming the first team in the Super Bowl era to allow 500 or more yards in three straight games. The Ravens are 8-2 after a bye under John Harbaugh, and they'll go all-out at home to stay in the wild-card hunt. Don't forget: Andy Dalton and the Bengals kept the Ravens out of the playoffs last season with a wild Week 17 win in Baltimore.
The pick: Ravens

COWBOYS (4-5) AT FALCONS (4-5)
Falcons by 3.5; O/U: 48.5
With Thanksgiving games on deck for both, each has its sights set on getting to 6-5 in a span of five days. This game would be easier to pick if we knew which Cowboys team was showing up. The one that lost by 14 at home to the Titans on MNF? Or the one that six nights later won at Philadelphia? Ezekiel Elliott should give the Falcons defense fits, and Dallas' linebacker play, led by Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch, makes me think the Cowboys could pull off another upset.
The pick: Cowboys

TEXANS (6-3) AT REDSKINS (6-3)
Texans by 3; O/U: 42
The last time Washington hosted a team off its bye, it lost to Atlanta by 24 points in Week 9. Deshaun Watson & Co. should have similar success. The Texans, on a six-game winning streak, also have the big edge up front with J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney against a decimated offensive line.
The pick: Texans

PANTHERS (6-3) AT LIONS (3-6)
Panthers by 4; O/U: 49.5
Forget about Carolina's 52-21 loss at Pittsburgh. Yes, the Panthers struggle on the road (1-3 overall and ATS), but they'll bounce back here. The Lions' three-game skid includes losses by 14, 15 and 12 points. They won't have any answers for Cam Newton, Christian McCaffrey and Norv Turner's playbook.
The pick: Panthers

TITANS (5-4) AT COLTS (4-5)
Colts by 1.5; O/U: 49
Not only is this the toughest game of the week to call, it may be the most difficult of the entire season. (Quick, who can lend me some darts?) Indy has won three straight, but it's beaten Buffalo, Oakland and Jacksonville (combined 7-21) whereas Tennessee just dominated New England and Dallas after nearly beating the Chargers in London. The key will be if the Titans can pressure Andrew Luck. This final could be as close as one or two points.
The pick: Titans

4 P.M. GAMES

EAGLES (4-5) AT SAINTS (8-1)
Saints by 8.5; O/U: 56
If not for the Minny Miracle, these teams would've met in last year's NFC Championship Game. Only one team is playing as if it has a chance to make it there this year (hint: it's not the Eagles). This is a ton of points, but if you want to bet against New Orleans, be my guest. The Saints have won eight in a row and have covered seven straight. The Eagles' undermanned secondary won't have any answers for Drew Brees (21 TDs, 1 INT) and Michael Thomas (78 catches, 950 yards, 7 TDs) as the Saints score 40-plus for the sixth time.
The pick: Saints

BRONCOS (3-6) AT CHARGERS (7-2)
Chargers by 7; O/U: 46.5
Los Angeles has won six in a row and should keep it going here. But Denver is off its bye, and is worth a shot with the points. The Chargers' only two losses are to the Chiefs and Rams (combined 18-2). Interestingly, the Broncos are 0-3 vs. those teams but 2-0-1 ATS, losing by a combined 14 points.
The pick: Broncos

RAIDERS (1-8) AT CARDINALS (2-7)
Cardinals by 5; O/U: 41
The Raiders sure look like a team that wants the No. 1 overall pick, losing five in a row by scores of 26-10, 27-3, 42-28, 34-3 and 20-6. Arizona (2-1-1 ATS at home) just played the Chiefs tough in a 26-14 road loss, and will have a much easier time vs. Oakland (NFL-worst 1-7-1 ATS).
The pick: Cardinals

SUNDAY NIGHT
VIKINGS (5-3-1) AT BEARS (6-3)
TV: Ch. 4, 8:20 p.m.
Bears by 2.5; O/U: 44.5
The NFL didn't do Chicago any favors flexing this game into prime time, as the Bears' quick turnaround for an early Thanksgiving game at Detroit got even shorter. This will be close, but I give the slight edge to the Vikings. They're off a bye, and I like Mike Zimmer having an extra week to plan for Mitch Trubisky. Plus, as impressive as Chicago has looked, its six wins have been against teams with a combined 18-38 record.
The pick: Vikings