NFL Week 12 picks: Giants keep it close in Philly, Jets don't; Colts lock of week; Packers beat Vikings

Have you recovered from that epic 54-51 Monday night game yet? Both the Rams and Chiefs are on a bye this week, the last byes for the 2018 season. Here's an idea: Why don't the two teams get together and have a rematch?

Underdogs went 8-5 against the spread last week to increase their season lead to 81-68-7. This could be another big week for them. 

My most confident picks ATS are the Colts, Packers, Browns and Giants. Two tricky games to avoid: Steelers-Broncos and Titans-Texans. 

Remember, I pick every game but you don't have to.

PATRIOTS (7-3) AT JETS (3-7)

TV: Ch. 2, 1 p.m.

Patriots by 10; O/U: 47

The Patriots have won four in a row and 12 of 14 against the Jets, but the last five at MetLife Stadium have been close contests (7, 5, 6, 1 and 3 points). The Jets won two of those games in overtime, but there’s no chance for an upset this week. Both teams are off a bye after brutal losses: While the Jets were being trounced, 41-10, by the Bills at home, Tom Brady and the Patriots were sacked in Tennessee, 34-10. If the Jets were playing any other team, this would be a good spot to take them off an embarrassing loss. But against Bill Belichick and Brady? Off a bye? Off their own beatdown? No way. If the Jets are in it at halftime, it wouldn’t be a shock, but Brady and New England will pull away in the second half. Deep-threat Josh Gordon could have a big game. Lay the big number as the Pats (7-3 ATS) take care of business against the  overmatched Jets (3-7 ATS), who haven't covered since Week 6.

The pick: Patriots

GIANTS (3-7) AT EAGLES (4-6)

TV: Ch. 5, 1 p.m.

Eagles by 6; O/U: 46.5

When the Eagles beat the Giants, 34-13, on TNF in Week 6, Big Blue fell to 1-5 while Philly got to 3-3. Now, the Giants all of a sudden have a chance at tying the Eagles with a win. The Giants aren’t going to run the table like Odell Beckham Jr. said, but they will give the Eagles fits. Yes, wins over the 49ers and Buccaneers don’t make the Giants contenders, but for the first time in a long time the team is feeling good about itself. The 2018 Eagles (3-7 ATS) aren’t the 2017 champion Eagles, so stop trying to convince yourself they’ll eventually return to that form. The Giants (5-5 ATS) are a live 'dog in this game.

The pick: Giants

1 P.M. GAMES

BROWNS (3-6-1) AT BENGALS (5-5)

Bengals by 3; O/U: 46.5

Cincinnati has owned Cleveland in this in-state rivalry, winning seven in a row and 12 of the last 15. The scores have been lopsided, too (37-3, 31-7, 30-0 to name a few). Well, guess what: The Browns are going to have their day on Sunday. Baker Mayfield, who had his best game with three TD passes against the Falcons in the Browns’ most sound win of the season before their bye week, will put up big numbers against the Bengals’ woeful defense (449.4 yards and 31.2 points per game). Plus, you have to think the Browns' players and coaches won't want to lose to former coach Hue Jackson, now a member of the Bengals' coaching staff. 

The pick: Browns

RAIDERS (2-8) AT RAVENS (5-5)

Ravens by 10.5; O/U: 43.5

Baltimore had to work hard to get to .500 last week. This will be much easier against the Raiders (2-7-1 ATS), who will spend most of their day chasing around elusive rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson. It wouldn’t shock me if he made a run at 200 rushing yards.

The pick: Ravens

SEAHAWKS (5-5) AT PANTHERS (6-4)

Panthers by 3.5; O/U: 46.5

You know that kid who is well-behaved at home but gets into trouble at school? That’s the Carolina Panthers. After back-to-back road losses at Pittsburgh and Detroit, Carolina returns home, where it’s 5-0 straight up and 4-1 ATS. The Panthers haven’t lost at home since Week 6 of last season. They’ve scored 42 and 36 points in their last two home wins. This result could have wild-card implications, so expect Russell Wilson and Seattle to keep it close. But in the end, Cam Newton & Co. are just too unstoppable at home.  

The pick: Panthers

JAGUARS (3-7) AT BILLS (3-7)

Jaguars by 3; O/U: 37

These teams met in the AFC wild-card round just 10 months ago. Feels like 10 years! The Jaguars have lost six in a row, and after last week’s collapse against Pittsburgh, it’s hard to imagine them being pumped up for a November visit to Buffalo. I’ll take a shot with the home team catching points off its bye against the warm-weather team.

The pick: Bills

49ERS (2-8) AT BUCCANEERS (3-7)

Buccaneers by 3; O/U: 53.5

These teams are both responsible for the Giants’ first winning streak since 2016. The Bucs, 1-6-1 ATS in their last seven games, have allowed 30 or more points seven times. Give me the points with 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan having an extra week to game plan for one of the NFL’s worst defenses.

The pick: 49ers

4 P.M. GAMES

LOCK OF THE WEEK

DOLPHINS (5-5) AT COLTS (5-5)

Colts by 7.5; O/U: 51

This battle of 5-5 teams isn’t as close as the records suggest. Miami has lost three of four, including blowout losses in its last two road games. Indy is making a run at the playoffs after a 1-5 start. The Colts have scored 37, 42, 29 and 38 points during their four-game win streak. Three of those victories were at home, where Andrew Luck has thrown 16 of his 29 TD passes. The quarterback who once seemed to always be taking hits and being knocked to the ground, has remarkably not been sacked in five straight games. Frank Reich has this team firing on all cylinders and it'll stay hot.  

The pick: Colts

STEELERS (7-2-1) AT BRONCOS (4-6)

Steelers by 3; O/U: 47

Did you see how pumped Case Keenum and the Broncos offense was at the end of last week’s shocking win over the Chargers? That tells me this team is still playing hard for coach Vance Joseph. Denver’s five home games have been decided by 3, 1, 4, 3 and 2 points, so this should be close.

The pick: Broncos

CARDINALS (2-8) AT CHARGERS (7-3)

Chargers by 13; O/U: 44.5

Sure, the Chargers could rout the Cardinals, but the safer play is to take the points. Arizona is 2-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog, and L.A. has a habit of letting teams hang around (see: last week vs. Denver and Week 4 vs. San Francisco).

The pick: Cardinals

SUNDAY NIGHT

PACKERS (4-5-1) AT VIKINGS (5-4-1)

TV: Ch. 4, 8:20 p.m.

Vikings by 3.5; O/U: 47.5

To steal a line from Aaron Rodgers, R-E-L-A-X. Yes, the Packers are 0-5 on the road and everyone is counting them out, but I think they will win Sunday and then make a run at the last wild-card spot. Green Bay easily could’ve won all three road losses at the Rams, Patriots and Seahawks, but costly turnovers and decisions hurt them. With extra time to get over the last loss, look for Rodgers, Aaron Jones and Davante Adams to have big nights against a Vikings team that is 0-3 in prime time and 0-for-2 on SNF. Kirk Cousins has a 4-12 career record in prime time. These teams played to a wacky 29-29 tie in Week 2. Expect another eventful one as Rodgers (40 TDs, 6 INTs all-time vs. Minnesota) gets the Packers back in the win column.

The pick: Packers

MONDAY NIGHT

TITANS (5-5) AT TEXANS (7-3)

TV: ESPN, 8:15 p.m.

Texans by 6.5; O/U: 41.5

Houston has won seven in a row but the last two were two-point contests and two others were decided by a field goal in overtime. The Titans are an up-and-down team, but I think they’ll show up the way they did in their last MNF trip to Texas, a 28-14 win at Dallas in Week 9. No matter who is at quarterback for Tennessee, I expect Mike Vrabel, the Texans’ ‘D’ coordinator last year, to have his new team ready for a big division matchup.

The pick: Titans