NFL Week 13 picks: Steelers top Chargers, Browns stun Texans; Giants, Jets lose; Seahawks lock of week

December football is here, and with playoff races heating up, now is the time to cash in on contenders vs. pretenders. There are a number of big spreads this week, but some of the matchups are so lopsided, it shouldn't even matter.

Favorites went 9-6 against the spread in Week 12 for their best mark of the season. Underdogs still lead, 87-77-7.

My most confident picks ATS this week are the Seahawks, Broncos, Browns, Steelers and Falcons. With no more byes, there are plenty of tricky games to avoid (see: Redskins-Eagles).

Remember, I pick every game but you don't have to.

GAME OF THE WEEK

SUNDAY NIGHT
CHARGERS (8-3) AT STEELERS (7-3-1)
TV: Ch. 4, 8:20 p.m.
Steelers by 3.5; O/U: 52
These teams have a lot in common, from Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers still delivering since they were taken in the first round in the 2004 NFL Draft, to both being AFC contenders but most likely having to win at least two road playoff games to make it to the Super Bowl. Oh, and both teams' last loss was to the Broncos. Pittsburgh has mostly been unstoppable in prime time of late (remember that 52-21 rout of the Panthers on TNF?). After a loss at Denver last week and the previous escape at Jacksonville, expect big games from Roethlisberger (42-17 in prime time and 78-26 at home for his career) and Antonio Brown (24-11 and 44-18) as the Steelers remind the rest of the NFL they're still a threat. Rivers will do all he can but without Melvin Gordon, the Chargers — as often has been the case in recent years — won't be able to keep pace under the bright lights in a big game.
The pick: Steelers

THE LOCALS

BEARS (8-3) AT GIANTS (3-8)
TV: Ch. 5, 1 p.m.
Bears by 4; O/U: 44.5
Ten days after Chicago's Thanksgiving win on extra-short rest and with its backup quarterback, it'll face little resistance in this first-place vs. last-place contest. The Bears have won five in a row (all covers) and even if Chase Daniel has to play again, they should be able to control the clock with their running game and short passes. Chicago sealed its last two wins with pick-6s by Eddie Jackson, so Eli Manning could be in for a long day. Oh, and who's going to block Khalil Mack?
The pick: Bears

JETS (3-8) AT TITANS (5-6)
TV: Ch. 2, 4:05 p.m.
Titans by 7.5; O/U: 40.5
This is a lot of points to lay with a team that averages 17.7 points per game. Even the Jets rank higher at 20.1. Still, I think it's more likely that Derrick Henry and the Titans run away than this being close. Tennessee will have a chip on its shoulder after bad road losses at Indianapolis and Houston, and will look more like the team that clobbered New England, 34-10, in its last home game. The Jets haven't won on the road since Week 1. They're also on a five-game losing streak in which they've been outscored by 20, 14, 7, 31 and 14.
The pick: Titans

1 P.M. GAMES

BROWNS (4-6-1) AT TEXANS (8-3)
Texans by 6; O/U: 48
Houston has won eight in a row (4-2-2 ATS), so why isn't it a bigger favorite over four-win Cleveland? Because Vegas knows that the Browns are much better than their record suggests (remember those wacky finishes earlier in the season that didn't go their way?) The Browns (6-3-2 ATS) are fresh off double-digit wins, and Baker Mayfield and Nick Chubb aren't playing like rookies. The resurgent Browns have a little swagger under the interim regime. I think that carries over against a Texans team that might overlook them a tad after an emotional MNF win. Give me the Browns to not only cover but pull off the upset and stop the Texans' win streak.
The pick: Browns

BRONCOS (5-6) AT BENGALS (5-6)
Broncos by 5; O/U: 44.5
If this game was played earlier in the season, Denver wouldn't be trusted on the road after bad losses at Baltimore and the Jets. Things sure have changed, as the Broncos have upset the Chargers and Steelers to get to 5-6 and suddenly have a shot at a wild card with a favorable schedule. The Bengals have lost five of six, as well as their starting QB. Undrafted rookie running back Phillip Lindsay (5.8 yards per carry) will have a field day against Cincy's 31st-ranked rush defense (147.5 yards per game) as the Broncos stay hot.
The pick: Broncos

RAVENS (6-5) AT FALCONS (4-7)
Falcons by 1.5; O/U: 48
My first thought when this line opened at Ravens -3 was that the wrong bird was favored. Turns out, I wasn't alone. Atlanta has lost three straight, but Matt Ryan and Julio Jones will show up at home. Let Lamar Jackson (2-0 at home) prove he can win on the road before backing him.
The pick: Falcons

PANTHERS (6-5) AT BUCS (4-7)
Panthers by 3.5; O/U: 54.5
Carolina was sitting pretty at 6-2 after a 42-28 win over Tampa Bay. Now, after an ugly 0-3 stretch, the Panthers are no longer a playoff lock. Cam Newton is 9-3 against the Bucs in his career, though, and he and Christian McCaffrey will get Carolina back on track against a bad Bucs defense.
The pick: Panthers

RAMS (10-1) AT LIONS (4-7)
Rams by 10; O/U: 54.5
Home underdogs are 23-20-2 ATS for the season, with 15 of them winning outright. Detroit isn't going to beat L.A., but in a lost season, giving the 10-1 Rams a game will be a silver (and blue) lining.
The pick: Lions

CARDINALS (2-9) AT PACKERS (4-6-1)
Packers by 14; O/U: 44.5
Arizona lost, 45-10, last week, its second 45-10 defeat this season. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers (4-0-1 at home) will deal the Cards another lopsided loss.
The pick: Packers

COLTS (6-5) AT JAGUARS (3-8)
Colts by 4; O/U: 47.5
Indy has won five in a row. Jacksonville has lost seven straight. One of those was a 29-26 defeat to the Colts just three weeks ago. I'll take a shot that the home underdog that just fired their offensive coordinator and made a quarterback change covers in a spoiler role.
The pick: Jaguars

BILLS (4-7) AT DOLPHINS (5-6)
Dolphins by 4; O/U: 40
Miami is 4-1 at home and Buffalo is 2-4 on the road. Still, the Bills' aggressive defense will keep them in this game. Josh Allen's mobility gives Buffalo a real shot at a three-game win streak.
The pick: Bills

4 P.M. GAMES

VIKINGS (6-4-1) AT PATRIOTS (8-3)
Patriots by 5; O/U: 49.5
New England is 5-0 at home with wins by 7, 31, 14, 3 and 14 points. It is 4-1 ATS, the lone loss by a half-point. This is the Patriots' first home game in nearly a month, and you'll see one of those vintage performances from Tom Brady as he spreads the ball around. Minnesota doesn't have a win over a playoff-caliber team, losing to the Rams, Saints and Bears.
The pick: Patriots

CHIEFS (9-2) AT RAIDERS (2-9)
Chiefs by 15; O/U: 55.5
Double-digit favorites went 4-0 ATS last week and are now 11-7. This is a ridiculously high spread, but Kansas City is playing for a No. 1 seed and Oakland, well, has a shot at the No. 1 pick. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs could put up another 50-spot.
The pick: Chiefs

LOCK OF THE WEEK
49ERS (2-9) AT SEAHAWKS (6-5)
Seahawks by 10; O/U: 46
By beating the Packers and Panthers in back-to-back weeks, Seattle has put itself in great position for an NFC wild card. A favorable schedule includes two more games with the 49ers, a team the Seahawks have beaten nine times in a row. Russell Wilson and Seattle (7-2-2 ATS) won't let up at home. This has shutout potential.
The pick: Seahawks

MONDAY NIGHT
REDSKINS (6-5) AT EAGLES (5-6)
TV: ESPN, 8:15 p.m.
Eagles by 6.5; O/U: 45
The defending champs haven't covered in Philly since Week 1 and are 3-3 there with every game being a nail-biter. The Eagles are 3-8 ATS, and while they should beat a backup QB at home, the rested Redskins figure to be in a close NFC East battle with a lot on the line.
The pick: Redskins