NFL Week 14 picks: Giants win again, Bills beat Steelers; Brady and Bucs lock of week

From the Browns’ big win at Tennessee to the Giants’ stunner in Seattle to Washington’s perfection-ending upset in Pittsburgh, Week 13 kept outdoing itself for "Best Win Of The Year." With the NFL never taking a week off for unpredictable outcomes, expect more surprises. A whopping 10 teams are home underdogs, so bettors beware.

Favorites went 7-7 ATS (one pick ‘em) last week and are 84-97-6 for the season. Home teams went 5-10 straight up and 4-10 ATS, bringing their totals to 96-95-1 and 87-98-6.

My three most confident picks this week are Tampa Bay, New Orleans and the Giants. Avoid the Atlanta-L.A. Chargers game.

THE LOCALS

ARIZONA (6-6) AT GIANTS (5-7)

TV: Ch. 5, 1 p.m.

Arizona by 2.5; O/U: 45

If I had known Leonard Williams was going to do his best Lawrence Taylor impersonation last week, I wouldn’t have laid the 10 points with Seattle. What an inspiring performance by the Giants defense, which held the Seahawks to 10 offensive points, a whopping 21 under their season average. It’s important not to overreact, but something special is going on with this Big Blue True Grit Defense, and why wouldn’t I back them against a not-100% Kyler Murray and a Cardinals team reeling with three straight losses? Even if Colt McCoy plays again, I like the Giants to grind out another low-scoring victory, something like 20-17, to win their fifth in a row and stay in first place.

The pick: Giants

JETS (0-12) AT SEATTLE (8-4)

TV: Ch. 2, 4:05 p.m.

Seattle by 13.5; O/U: 47

Seattle's back-to-back home games with the Giants and Jets are the perfect example of why the NFL is a week-to-week league and why you should have a short memory. Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf and the Seattle offense were overwhelmed by a resurgent Giants defense but they'll take it out on this overmatched unit. And then there’s the Jamal Adams angle. From "cover zero" to zero cover, the Jets have no shot of staying inside the number.

The pick: Seattle

GAME OF THE WEEK

SUNDAY NIGHT

PITTSBURGH (11-1) AT BUFFALO (9-3)

TV: Ch. 4

Buffalo by 2; O/U: 48

Pittsburgh could go from having no losses in nearly three months to two losses in six days. That’s so 2020. Let’s face it: The Steelers were not a dominant 11-0, with six of those wins by fewer than a touchdown. Josh Allen (4 TDs in MNF win over San Francisco) will be able to move the ball. Buffalo is 5-1 at home, with the lone loss against another 11-1 team in Kansas City.

The pick: Buffalo

1 p.m. GAMES

KANSAS CITY (11-1) AT MIAMI (8-4)

Kansas City by 7.5; O/U: 50.5

Kansas City can beat anyone by double digits, so it's always risky picking against Patrick Mahomes. Miami has a solid defense, though, and who doesn’t want to beat the defending champs? KC's last four wins have been by 2, 4, 3 and 6 points, and this one will be close, too.

The pick: Miami

LOCK OF THE WEEK

MINNESOTA (6-6) AT TAMPA BAY (7-5)

Tampa Bay by 6.5; O/U: 52.5

When picking a lock, you’re hoping for one game on the lineup card to jump out at you. This is that game. I love the Bucs to bounce back after having a week to regroup from back-to-back 27-24 home losses to the L.A. Rams and Kansas City. Tom Brady is 14-4 after the bye week and should have no trouble moving the ball against a Vikings defense that has given up 27 or more points eight times this season. Minnesota has won four of five to get back in the wild-card hunt, but it just needed overtime to beat one-win Jacksonville and two weeks before that lost at home to Dallas when it was 2-7. Tampa Bay by 14-plus.

The pick: Tampa Bay

HOUSTON (4-8) AT CHICAGO (5-7)

Houston by 1; O/U: 45

The Bears have lost six straight and Matt Nagy's seat is hotter than Joe Pesci's head in Home Alone. Deshaun Watson and Houston keep fighting and were in position to beat Indianapolis last week before a late fumble near the goal line.

The pick: Houston

TENNESSEE (8-4) AT JACKSONVILLE (1-11)

Tennessee by 7.5; O/U: 52.5

Jacksonville's 11-game losing streak began in Week 2, a 33-30 loss at Tennessee. With the exception of a blowout defeat to Pittsburgh, Jacksonville's other four losses since its bye week have been by 2, 4, 2 and 3, the last in overtime at Minnesota last week.

The pick: Jacksonville

DENVER (4-8) AT CAROLINA (4-8)

Line: OFF (likely Carolina by 4)

Carolina has fared better as underdog this season, but I'll lay the small number with a team that has played really hard for first-year coach Matt Rhule. The Panthers are off a bye, and I think that will show against a Broncos team that played Sunday night and went all-out in a failed upset bid at Kansas City.

The pick: Carolina

DALLAS (3-9) AT CINCINNATI (2-9-1)

Dallas by 3.5; O/U: 42.5

As bad as the Cowboys have looked, it's hard to take a Bengals team that has scored 17 offensive points the last two games without Joe Burrow. Andy Dalton played his best football in 1 p.m. games at Cincinnati (hey, I'm looking for any edge I can find here in this unwatchable game).

The pick: Dallas

4 p.m. Games

NEW ORLEANS (10-2) AT PHILADELPHIA (3-8-1)

TV: Ch. 5

New Orleans by 7; O/U: 43

If you looked up the definition of insanity, you'd see my picks for the Eagles' last two games. Even though I said I would stop backing them, I talked myself into it and it obviously didn't work out. Which is the same that could be said for the Eagles' debacle of a season. New Orleans has won nine in a row and its defense should give Jalen Hurts fits.

The pick: New Orleans

GREEN BAY (9-3) AT DETROIT (5-7)

Green Bay by 7.5; O/U: 55

Aaron Rodgers should help decide who the next Lions coach is — he does own the team, after all. He's thrown 43 TDs to just eight INTs in 21 games against them for a 16-5 record. That includes a 42-21 win at Green Bay in Week 2. Call me crazy but I'm going to take the points here, as the Packers have taken their foot off the gas too many times this season (see: loss to Minnesota and nail-biter over Jacksonville). The Lions won their first game without Matt Patricia and should be up for this rivalry game.

The pick: Detroit

INDIANAPOLIS (8-4) AT LAS VEGAS (7-5)

Indianapolis by 2.5; O/U: 51

Las Vegas might be the only team in the NFL that would prefer to play Kansas City. The Raiders handed the defending champs their only loss, and almost beat them again, yet then lost, 43-6, at Atlanta and then needed a last-second heave to beat the winless Jets? The Colts are the better team, but this is the NFL so sometimes it’s best to do the opposite. Give me the George Costanza special: The home ‘dog Raiders . . . and chicken salad on rye, untoasted, with a side of potato salad and a cup of tea!

The pick: Las Vegas

WASHINGTON (5-7) AT SAN FRANCISCO (5-7)

San Francisco by 3; O/U: 43

Who predicted these teams would have the same record in Week 14? Yeah, me neither. San Francisco's loss to Buffalo all but knocked it out of playoff contention. That, coupled with having to play its home games in a different state, could take a toll. Washington’s stunner over previously unbeaten Pittsburgh is the type of win that can carry over. Plus, whether the Giants win or lose, Alex Smith and Washington know what's at stake against his former team.

The pick: Washington

ATLANTA (4-8) AT L.A. CHARGERS (3-9)

Atlanta by 2.5; O/U: 49.5

What do you do when two of the most underachieving teams face off? Stay away, obviously. But if you have to make a pick, go with the team that has played better of late: The Falcons are 4-3 under interim coach Raheem Morris, with two of the losses against 10-win New Orleans.

The pick: Atlanta

MONDAY NIGHT

BALIMORE (7-5) AT CLEVELAND (9-3)

TV: ESPN

Baltimore by 2; O/U: 47.5

If you had told me this would be 9-3 vs. 7-5 after Baltimore beat Cleveland, 38-6, in Week 1, I’d have said, "Wait, Cleveland is going to have seven wins?" Wrong. The Browns, off the best first half of football in 2020 – 38-7 at Tennessee – are no longer a pushover. If I had a vote, Kevin Stefanski would be the runaway Coach of the Year. A home ‘dog at the Dawg Pound? Show them some respect!

The pick: Cleveland