NFL Week 15 betting guide: Odds, picks and props

SATURDAY TRIPLEHEADER

(All games on NFL Network)

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (7-6) AT CINCINNATI BENGALS (7-6), 1 p.m.

Cincinnati by 3; O/U: 40.5

When the league planned this tripleheader for Week 15, it didn’t expect four of the six quarterbacks to be backups. But every game has playoff implications. It starts with the Vikings’ Nick Mullens and Bengals’ Jake Browning. Mullens replaced Joshua Dobbs last week in the Vikings’ 3-0 win at Las Vegas. He’s 5-12 as a starter, mostly with San Francisco. On the flip side, Browning has excelled the last two weeks in wins over the Jaguars and Colts (50-for-61 for 629 yards, 3 TDs, INT). This will be his toughest test yet against Brian Flores’ blitzing defense, and when the spread was 3.5, I was tempted to take the points. But Browning has the Bengals believing again, and a motivated team can win by three at home.

The pick: Cincinnati

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (7-6) AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (7-6), 4:30 p.m.

Indianapolis by 1.5; O/U: 42.5

Another toss-up, but I’ll side with the home team again because it’s hard to trust the Steelers, who just let a pair of two-win teams in Arizona and New England win in their building. T.J. Watt clearing concussion protocol is big, but the Pittsburgh defense couldn’t stop Bailey Zappe and the scoring-challenged Pats. Offensive-minded Colts coach Shane Steichen and Gardner Minshew can win a close one.

The pick: Indianapolis

DENVER BRONCOS (7-6) AT DETROIT LIONS (9-4), 8:15 p.m.

Detroit by 4.5; O/U: 47.5

In keeping with the the theme of the day, it’s another one where I went back and forth on. The Broncos have won six of seven after a 1-5 start, but this is their third straight road game and it’s against an angry Lions team that just lost to the Bears and needs a pick-me-up. Jared Goff and his offensive weapons will get it done.

The pick: Detroit

SUNDAY’S GAMES

BEST OF THE REST

NEW YORK GIANTS (5-8) AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (6-7), 1 p.m., Fox

New Orleans by 6; O/U: 39.5 

Do you smell that? No, it’s not the chicken cutlets, but another suspicious spread involving the Giants. I was able to sniff out the first two — Commanders -9.5 and Pats -3.5 in Weeks 11 and 12 — but whiffed on last week’s Packers -6.5. Let’s make it 3-for-4, as the inconsistent Saints (3-9-1 ATS) should not be favored by this many. Wink Martindale’s blitz-happy ‘D’ will frustrate Derek Carr the way it did Jordan Love. Tommy DeVito will cook up another strong game as the hungry Giants keep this close and maybe even win outright.

The pick: Giants

NEW YORK JETS (5-8) AT MIAMI DOLPHINS (9-4), 1 p.m., CBS

Miami by 8.5; O/U: 37.5 

When these teams played on Black Friday, I talked myself into backing the Jets as 9.5-point home underdogs. Now, with a near identical spread on the road, I’m siding with Gang Green and there was no talking me into it. The Dolphins not only suffered a heartbreaking 28-27 loss to the Titans on MNF, they lost center Connor Williams for the season and Tyreek Hill is banged up. The Jets ‘D’ can keep this close.

The pick: Jets

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (6-7) AT GREEN BAY PACKERS (6-7), 1 p.m.

Green Bay by 3.5; O/U: 41.5

Don’t break up with Jordan Love and the Packers just because of one bad Monday night date. It’ll be a different story at Lambeau against the Bucs (3-1 vs. the NFC South, 3-4 vs. everyone else).

The pick: Green Bay

CHICAGO BEARS (5-8) AT CLEVELAND BROWNS (8-5), 1 p.m.

Cleveland by 3; O/U: 38.5

Are the Bears who I thought they were? My surprise NFC wild-card pick is 5-4 after an 0-4 start, and would have a different outlook if they were 7-6 and hadn’t blown two big leads. After a 28-13 win over the Lions, the Bears can roll into Cleveland and make Joe Flacco question his return. The Browns are down two offensive tackles. Montez Sweat has 3 1/2 sacks in four games as a Bear.

The pick: Chicago

KANSAS CITY (8-5) AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (3-10), 1 p.m.

Kansas City by 8.5; O/U: 37

KC has never lost three in a row with Patrick Mahomes, and in the three previous instances in which it was facing such a streak, won big. Mahomes will regroup after his offside meltdown, but KC — 2-4 after a 6-1 start — has done nothing to warrant being this big of a road favorite. The Pats can treat this like their Super Bowl (remember those, Coach Belichick?), get enough stops and lose by single digits.

The pick: New England

DALLAS COWBOYS (10-3) AT BUFFALO BILLS (7-6), 4:25 p.m.

Buffalo by 1.5; O/U: 50.5 (Fox)

Cowboys-Bills elicits my favorite NFL play: Don Beebe chasing down Leon Lett at the goal line in Super Bowl XXVII, knocking the ball away for a touchback instead of a touchdown . . . in a game Buffalo trailed 52-17! This will be a lot closer, but it may take another heroic effort to slow down the Cowboys. It’s not often a 10-3 team has something to prove, but with a super 7-0 record at home and an average 3-3 on the road, here we are. Buffalo went all-out to save its season at KC, but it takes a lot to do it in back-to-back weeks. Also, the better team getting points? Sign me up.

The pick: Dallas

BALTIMORE RAVENS (10-3) AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (8-5), 8:20 p.m., NBC

Baltimore by 3.5; O/U: 42.5

Keep this simple: Take the better QB, better coach, better team playing for the 1 seed. The Jags were vying for that but may be a wild-card team after they lose a third straight to the AFC North.

The pick: Baltimore

MONDAY NIGHT

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (10-3) AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (6-7), 8:15 p.m., ESPN

Philadelphia by 3.5; O/U: 47.5

Can the Eagles lose three in a row after a 10-1 start? Probably not, but it wouldn’t shock me. Not after the Cowboys and 49ers just beat them by a combined 75-32. The Seahawks aren’t on their level, but they’re desperate to stop a four-game skid and stay in the wild-card picture.

The pick: Seattle

ANYTIME TD SCORERS

SAM LaPORTA, LIONS (+170)

The rookie tight end has six TD catches, and all have been in a dome: one at New Orleans two weeks ago and the other five in Detroit. The Broncos’ defense isn’t the same group that gave up 70 points at Miami in Week 3, but they’re still not great against defending tight ends. LaPorta has 66 catches on 92 targets.

DALLAS DEFENSE (+500)

Maybe there’s a bit of superstition involved in this one after I referenced the Leon Lett-Don Beebe play in the Cowboys-Bills write-up, but wouldn’t it be something if a similar situation presents itself and this time there’s no hustle play to save a TD? Josh Allen has throw 14 interceptions this season, and you have to go back to Week 4 for the last time he had a game without one. Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence could force him into a turnover or rushed throw, and the Cowboys have the pick-6 king in DaRon Bland, whose five this season are an NFL record.

By Joe Manniello

joe.manniello@newsday.com@joe_manniello

Joe Manniello, an editor on the sports copy desk, has written the NFL picks column since 2015. Manniello joined Newsday in 2004. He graduated from St. John's.