NFL Week 16 picks: Rams beat Seahawks, Colts lock of week vs. slumping Steelers; Giants, Jets don't cover big spreads

There were times it felt as if 2020 would never end, but as we approach the new year, one thing that always goes by fast is the NFL season. Weren’t we just talking about whether there would even be a season? Now it’s the penultimate week, with playoff races heating up. With some teams already thinking about their vacation plans, this is a good week to lock in on teams motivated and those out of it.

Favorites went 6-9-1 ATS last week and are 99-113-7 for the season. Home teams went 7-9 straight up and 7-8-1 ATS, bringing their totals to 109-114-1 and 104-113-7.

My three most confident picks are Indianapolis, Washington and Miami (I also like Arizona and Tampa Bay on Saturday, with all three favorites having favorable matchups). Stay away from Cincinnati-Houston.

SATURDAY'S GAMES

TAMPA BAY (9-5) AT DETROIT (5-9)

TV: NFL, 1 p.m.

Tampa Bay by 9.5; O/U: 54

Detroit has given up 40 or more points four times, and this feels as if it could be a fifth. Tom Brady and the Bucs have the playoffs in their sights and will come out firing after last week's slow start in Atlanta.

The pick: Tampa Bay

SAN FRANCISCO (5-9) AT ARIZONA (8-6)

TV: Prime Video, 4:30 p.m.

Arizona by 5; O/U: 48.5

Is this San Francisco at Arizona or Arizona at San Francisco? It's now both teams' home stadium. What a confusing season. The Cardinals beat the 49ers in Week 1 when they were able to play in California. With Arizona fighting for a playoff spot and the defending NFC champs out of it, expect Kyler Murray to lead a clean sweep. San Francisco, favored last week at Dallas (41-33 loss), is still getting too much respect. This spread should be a couple of points higher.

The pick: Arizona

MIAMI (9-5) AT LAS VEGAS (7-7)

TV: NFL, 8:15 p.m.

Miami by 3; O/U: 47.5

Jon Gruden must have loved the Dolphins' grind-it-out win over the Patriots last week. Now he will see it up close and personal as Miami wears out a bad Raiders defense. The Dolphins are fighting for a wild-card spot and the Raiders look like a team down for the count. Don’t forget: Las Vegas would be on a five-game losing streak if not for that last-second win over the Jets.

The pick: Miami

SUNDAY'S 1 p.m. Games

GIANTS (5-9) AT BALTIMORE (9-5)

TV: Ch. 5, 1 p.m.

Baltimore by 10.5; O/U: 44

It feels as if the Giants' win at Seattle was eons ago, doesn't it? Three weeks after that stunner moved them to first place, they're on the outside looking in and it's hard to envision them hanging with the resurgent Ravens (87 points the last two weeks). The Giants' defense can keep this respectable, but you can't back a team whose offense has scored seven and six points in its last two games. It will probably need 20 to cover this number.

The pick: Baltimore

CLEVELAND (10-4) AT JETS (1-13)

TV: Ch. 2, 1 p.m.

Cleveland by 9.5; O/U: 47

Gotta admit, writing a '1' and not a '0' in the Jets' record felt strange. Their unbelievable win prevented the "next 0-16 team vs. the last 0-16 team" story line. The Browns are a pushover no more and should register their second straight double-digit win at MetLife Stadium. Jets players treated last week's win as if they won the Super Bowl. They got their win. They're happy. Expect them to be flat.

The pick: Cleveland

LOCK OF THE WEEK

INDIANAPOLIS (10-4) AT PITTSBURGH (11-3)

Indianapolis by 1.5; O/U: 44.5

We went from talking about whether Pittsburgh would lose a single game to now discussing if it will win one the rest of the season. After the Colts, it’s the Browns and then likely a wild-card matchup with a team as good or better. From 11-0 to 11-3 after a shocking loss to Cincinnati on MNF, don’t talk yourself into taking Pittsburgh just because you think it must be better than the last three weeks. The Steelers have major issues, and the eye test tells you to fade them. The Colts are a well-balanced team on both sides of the ball and simply put, the better team. They’ll win, take over the AFC South lead and put pressure on Tennessee to win Sunday night.

The pick: Indianapolis

ATLANTA (4-10) AT KANSAS CITY (13-1)

Kansas City by 10.5; O/U: 53.5

The Falcons were reminded of their infamous 28-3 blown lead in the Super Bowl when Tom Brady rallied past them again last week. Now they face a team that earlier this year won the Super Bowl after trailing 20-10 late. Patrick Mahomes and the champs continue their run of good fortune as they clinch the AFC’s 1 seed.

The pick: Kansas City

CHICAGO (7-7) AT JACKSONVILLE (1-13)

Chicago by 7.5; O/U: 47

This went from a meaningless game to a very meaningful one. Right, Jets fans? Yes, Chicago has a shot at a wild card after two straight wins, but the No. 1 story here is Jacksonville and the top draft pick after it leapfrogged the Jets. The look-ahead line for this game was Chicago minus-3.5. Now it’s more than a touchdown. That is a red flag. If you don't think the Jags could win, you probably said the same thing about the Jets (like me). Take all those extra points as the Jags tease Jets fans before losing a close one.

The pick: Jacksonville

CINCINNATI (3-10-1) AT HOUSTON (4-10)

Houston by 7.5; O/U: 46

This is a contender for "least interested" game of the year. Why is a four-win team laying this many points with no home-field advantage?

The pick: Cincinnati

4 p.m. GAMES

GAME OF THE WEEK

L.A. RAMS (9-5) AT SEATTLE (10-4)

Seattle by 1.5; O/U: 47.5

The Rams just lost to the 0-13 Jets, so there’s no way you should take them against 10-win Seattle, right? Wrong. That’s exactly why you should back the Rams. If their motivation level was at an all-time low last week, expect it to be at an all-time high after they were embarrassed at home. They’re also playing for the NFC West title, as a win would give them the head-to-head tiebreaker over Seattle. Since Sean McVay took over, the Rams are 5-2 vs. the Seahawks, including a 23-16 win in Week 10. McVay, Jared Goff and Aaron Donald lead the Rams to a victory, a reminder to the rest of the NFC that last week was a fluke.

The pick: Los Angeles

CAROLINA (4-10) AT WASHINGTON (6-8)

Washington by 1; O/U: 42

If Ron Rivera’s new team beats Ron Rivera’s old team, it all but wraps up the NFC East title (assuming the Giants don’t shock Baltimore). Dwayne Haskins’ on-field, off-field issues give me pause, but Washington’s defense will make it a long day for Teddy Bridgewater as the team gets back to its winning ways (four-game streak before last week’s loss to Seattle).

The pick: Washington

PHILADELPHIA (4-9-1) AT DALLAS (5-9)

TV: Ch. 5, 4:25 p.m.

Philadelphia by 2.5; O/U: 49

These teams have a combined nine wins, a number that would’ve run away with the underachieving NFC East. With the playoffs a long shot, will either team show up for this rivalry game? It’s Jalen Hurts’ first taste, so maybe that could be the difference.

The pick: Philadelphia

DENVER (5-9) AT L.A. CHARGERS (5-9)

Los Angeles by 3; O/U: 49

If there's one stat to best describe the wild 2020 season, it's this: All four of the Chargers' division games have come down to the final play. That includes a 31-30 loss at Denver in Week 8 after the Broncos scored a TD with 0:00 showing. The Chargers have a little mojo after back-to-back last-second wins and maybe, just maybe, they can wrap this up on the second-to-last-play of the game.

The pick: Los Angeles

SUNDAY NIGHT

TENNESSEE (10-4) AT GREEN BAY (11-3)

TV: Ch. 4, 8:20 p.m.

Green Bay by 3.5; O/U: 55.5

Tennessee won't be able to contain Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay will struggle to corral Derrick Henry. In a matchup of last year's conference championship runners-up, take the points in what should be a fun one.

The pick: Tennessee

MONDAY NIGHT

BUFFALO (11-3) AT NEW ENGLAND (6-8)

TV: ESPN, 8:15 p.m.

Buffalo by 7; O/U: 46

Buffalo looks as if it's the only team that could stand in Kansas City's way in the AFC. After a dominant win last Saturday in Denver, a well-balanced and well-rested Bills team should roll here. The Pats are out of it. Finishing 8-8 won't mean anything to a perennial playoff team.

The pick: Buffalo