Week 9 TNF pick: Take 49ers at home over Raiders in ugly matchup

RAIDERS (1-6) AT 49ERS (1-7)

TV: Ch. 5, NFL, 8:15 p.m.

49ers by 3; O/U: 45 1/2 

In previewing Broncos-Cardinals two Thursday nights ago, I wrote that if there was one game all season we could have a bye from picking, that was a top candidate.

I spoke too soon.

This week's matchup featuring a pair of  one-win teams is so scary they should've flexed it to Halloween.

There have been 784 prime-time games played on Nov. 1 or later and the .133 combined winning percentage for these two teams is the worst, topping a December 2014 matchup between the 2-12 Titans and 2-12 Jaguars.

The 49ers have lost six in a row, including two to the 2-6 Cardinals. The Raiders are on a three-game skid. Both allow a ton of points (Oakland second most at 31.1 per game, San Francisco fifth most at 29.5), so bet the over if you must make a play.

As far as the spread, it's always safe to back to the home team on a short week. Hosts are 6-2 and 5-2-1 against the spread on Thursday nights this season. Even if C.J. Beathard (game-time decision) can't go and the 49ers have to start third-string QB Nick Mullens, the running game should have success against Oakland (NFL-high 144.7 yards per game).

So I'll begrudgingly lay the points. And if you're laying in bed by halftime, we won't blame you.

The pick: 49ers