NFL Week 9 picks: Take points in Saints-Bucs rematch; Giants cover, Jets don't; Broncos lock of week

With about half the NFL teams having played half their schedule, the midway point of the season is a good time to pick games. We know a lot more than we did a month ago, and as predictable as this league is, there are certain matchups where you should have a good feel. Maybe that’s because I had back-to-back "Dolly Parton" weeks (that’s 9-5 for you non-poker players), but this week’s slate again has favorable matchups.

Favorites went 4-10 against the spread (ATS) last week and are 51-63-2 as underdogs have started to heat up. Home teams went 7-7 straight up and 8-6 ATS, bringing their totals to 60-58-1 and 52-65-2.

My three most confident picks are New England, Denver and Miami. Avoid Detroit-Minnesota.

GAME OF THE WEEK

NEW ORLEANS (5-2) AT TAMPA BAY (6-2)

TV: Ch. 4, 8:20 p.m.

Tampa Bay by 4; O/U: 50.5

The Bucs have won six of seven since their 34-23 loss at New Orleans in Week 1, and the one defeat was by one point. Tom Brady and the offense had been clicking before a so-so performance in Monday night’s squeaker over the Giants. I like the Bucs to get a little payback here, but the spread is just too big. This will likely be a field-goal difference, and with the winner taking control of the NFC South race, there’s too much at stake to think this won’t be close. The Saints have won four in a row (1-3 ATS) and are playing more close games than recent seasons. With Michael Thomas likely back, Drew Brees can match Brady as this has the makings of a "last to have the ball wins" kind of game.

The pick: New Orleans

THE LOCALS

GIANTS (1-7) AT WASHINGTON (2-5)

TV: Ch. 5, 1 p.m.

Washington by 2.5; O/U: 42.5

The Giants face Washington after a four-game stretch about as close as the election: Loss by 3, win by 1, loss by 1, loss by 2. Daniel Jones is 4-16 as a starter. He is 3-0 against Washington, including a 20-19 win three weeks ago. That doesn’t mean he will be 4-0, but in a game of evenly-matched bad teams, you take the points. I wouldn’t be surprised if it comes down to another late play.

The pick: Giants

MONDAY NIGHT

NEW ENGLAND (2-5) AT JETS (0-8)

TV: ESPN, Ch. 11, 8:15 p.m.

New England by 7.5; O/U: 41.5

If there was 'NE' team Bill Belichick could face to stop the bleeding, it’s the hated Jets. The Patriots will snap a three-game losing streak and put this game away early. The Jets are also 0-8 in their last eight meetings with New England, with most of the scores lopsided. Yes, this is nowhere near a vintage Pats team, but they still have Belichick, Cam Newton and were a late fumble away from possibly winning at Buffalo last week. The Jets are 1-7 ATS, trading away players and there’s no reason to back them with Adam Gase as HC of the NYJ.

The pick: New England

1 p.m. GAMES

SEATTLE (6-1) AT BUFFALO (6-2)

Seattle by 3; O/U: 55

Sometimes, it’s best to keep these picks simple. As in, just go with Russell Wilson and Seattle (5-2 ATS). Wilson excelled on the road last season (7-1) and is 2-1 this year. He leads the NFL with 26 TD passes, with DK Metcalf catching seven (tied for NFL lead). That nearly unstoppable QB-WR connection will be the difference in what should be a fun, competitive game. Jamal Adams returning from an injury is a big boost for a Seahawks defense that missed him.

The pick: Seattle

BALTIMORE (5-2) AT INDIANAPOLIS (5-2)

TV: Ch. 2

Baltimore by 1.5; O/U: 47.5

It’s tempting to take Lamar Jackson and the Ravens off a loss, but the Colts are a solid team and probably not getting enough respect here. Philip Rivers has been sacked an NFL-low eight times, so Indy’s O-line should be up to the task for Baltimore’s blitzes. If the Colts can take an early lead, they can force Jackson to throw and get him out of his rhythm.

The pick: Indianapolis

CAROLINA (3-5) AT KANSAS CITY (7-1)

Kansas City by 10.5; O/U: 52.5

Kansas City covered as 19.5-point favorites last week against the Jets, but I don’t think this will be another laugher. Yes, Patrick Mahomes and KC will win, but Carolina is feisty. The Panthers are on extra rest after a bad TNF loss and could treat this game like their Super Bowl against the defending champs. Plus, it’s better to back the Panthers when they’re in an underdog role (5-1 ATS) than a favorite (0-2).

The pick: Carolina

CHICAGO (5-3) AT TENNESSEE (5-2)

Tennessee by 6.5; O/U: 46.5

If these teams met in Week 7, it would’ve been 5-0 vs. 5-1. Now they both enter on two-game losing streaks. This is in that unfavorable point spread range, and if the Bears lose by 3-6 instead of 7 then so be it. I’ll go with the better team that has scored 33, 42, 42 and 24 in four home games (3-1).

The pick: Tennessee

LOCK OF THE WEEK

DENVER (3-4) AT ATLANTA (2-6)

Atlanta by 4; O/U: 50

It’s very rare for the better team to be getting points, so this is an easy call. Atlanta shouldn’t be favored by more than three points against anyone outside of the Jets and Jaguars. There is no home-field advantage in 2020, so this spread should be closer to a pick ‘em. Denver has the better all-around team and will be flying high after a wild comeback over the Chargers. Drew Lock has a big day as Denver gets to .500.

The pick: Denver

DETROIT (3-4) AT MINNESOTA (2-5)

Line: OFF (likely Minnesota -4)

Matthew Stafford (reserve/COVID-19 list) could play, but the uncertainty is just enough to make me lean the other way in a game I don’t have a great feel for anyway. Minnesota looked like a different team off its bye, winning at Green Bay last week. But beware: Its last home game was a 40-25 loss to Atlanta in Week 6.

The pick: Minnesota

HOUSTON (1-6) AT JACKSONVILLE (1-6)

Houston by 7; O/U: 50.5

When these teams met in Houston in Week 5, I made Jacksonville my lock because I thought a winless Texans team didn’t deserve to be 6-point favorites. They won, 30-14. At first glance, this spread again seems too high. But it makes sense. The Jaguars are starting sixth-round pick Jake Luton at QB, and with both teams off their bye, expect Deshaun Watson to be raring to go. Jacksonville has allowed 33.3 points per game during a six-game losing streak and is 0-for-5 ATS in its last five.

The pick: Houston

4 p.m. GAMES

PITTSBURGH (7-0) AT DALLAS (2-6)

TV: Ch. 2

Pittsburgh by 14; O/U: 41.5

Unlike the teams’ three Super Bowl meetings, this won’t be close. Pittsburgh, the lone undefeated team, is an NFL-best 6-1 ATS. Dallas is a hard-to-believe 0-8 ATS. The Steelers’ defense may outscore the Cowboys’ offense, so lay the big number and don’t think twice.

The pick: Pittsburgh

MIAMI (4-3) AT ARIZONA (5-2)

Arizona by 4.5; O/U: 49

The Dolphins might be the best-kept secret in the NFL. Keep sleeping on the Fish while I continue to back them (3-0 picking their last three games after starting 0-for-4). After a 1-3 start that included losses to Buffalo and Seattle, Brian Flores’ team has looked like a wild-card contender. The defense dominated the Rams last week and Tua Tagovailoa should have a better game with less pressure on him – both literally and figuratively. Kyler Murray and the Cards are off a bye after a wild OT win over the Seahawks, but this is a toss-up game and there is good value with the spread.

The pick: Miami

LAS VEGAS (4-3) AT L.A. CHARGERS (2-5)

L.A. Chargers by 1; O/U: 51.5

Who knows what to expect with the Chargers, who blew a 21-point lead in last week’s 31-30 loss at Denver and have lost three games in which they had a 17-point lead. This will be close but give me the more consistent team that is also 3-1 on the road.

The pick: Las Vegas