NFL Week 9 picks: Rams beat Saints in thriller; Jets cover in Miami; Redskins lock of the week

November football is upon us, and before you know it, we'll be closing in on the playoffs. Doesn't the NFL season just fly by? By now, you should have a strong feeling on which teams to back and fade. The spread and situation always factor in, of course.

Underdogs went 7-6 against the spread in Week 8 to increase their season record to 59-51-6. It should be another close call this week.

My most confident picks ATS this week are the Redskins, Chiefs, Panthers, Seahawks and Cowboys. Two tricky games to avoid: Jets-Dolphins and Texans-Broncos.

Remember, I pick every game so that you don't have to.

JETS (3-5) AT DOLPHINS (4-4)

TV: Ch. 2, 1 p.m.

Dolphins by 3; O/U: 44

There's always one game each week in which it feels impossible to pick. This is that game. The good news? I'm 7-1 ATS picking Jets games this season. The bad news? The one loss was Week 2, when the Dolphins upset them. Both teams have been hit hard by injuries, making this game difficult to predict. The Jets have lost three in a row on the road and Sam Darnold has struggled, but maybe playing in 80-degree Miami weather will help him. Maybe the Jets' defense will pick on Brock Osweiler. In a game full of so many maybes, maybe it's just best to take the points.

The pick: Jets

1 P.M. GAMES

STEELERS (4-2-1) AT RAVENS (4-4)

Ravens by 3; O/U: 47 1/2

The Steelers have won three in a row (all covers) since a 26-14 loss at Baltimore in Week 4. It's never easy sweeping a season series from a rival, and I don't see it happening for the Ravens. They were steamrolled at Carolina last week. Pittsburgh has scored 41, 28 and 33 in its last three games.

The pick: Steelers

CHIEFS (7-1) AT BROWNS (2-5-1)

Chiefs by 8; O/U: 51

Both were 4-0-1 ATS and have been two of the best teams to back. Kansas City is now 6-1-1 after failing to cover last week and Cleveland is 5-2-1 after double-digit losses in two of its last three games. The Browns are in disarray after firing their coach and offensive coordinator. Sometimes, a shake-up can be a wake-up, but it's bad timing for GM John Dorsey as his former team comes to town. Expect Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs' No. 1 scoring offense (36.3 points per game) to have the same success the Chargers had in a 38-14 win at Cleveland.

The pick: Chiefs

BUCS (3-4) AT PANTHERS (5-2)

Panthers by 6; O/U: 55

Carolina is 4-0 at home and 3-1 ATS after dropping 36 points on the Ravens' top-ranked defense. Now it faces one of the NFL's worst in the Bucs. The Panthers haven't lost at home since Week 6 of last season. With Tampa Bay going back to Ryan Fitzpatrick, you always have to worry about a Buc-door cover (just ask Bengals bettors last week), but roll with Cam Newton and the hot home team.

The pick: Panthers

LOCK OF THE WEEK

FALCONS (3-4) AT REDSKINS (5-2)

Redskins by 1 1/2; O/U: 48 1/2

Preseason perception isn't reality. Especially not by Week 9. The Falcons were considered a playoff team before the season, and the Redskins were an afterthought. I thought they'd be in the No. 1 pick conversation and now they're in first place. Interestingly, both teams are coming off wins over the Giants (Redskins in Week 8, the Falcons in Week 7). Washington isn't a flashy team but it gets the job done with a balanced offense and a stingy defense that is second-best against the run (80.1 yards per game) and can get after the quarterback (21 sacks). Matt Ryan should be in for a long day. Washington has covered in three straight home games thanks to strong first quarters: 14-0 vs. Green Bay, 14-0 vs. Carolina and  7-0 vs. Dallas. Look for more of the same as Alex Smith finds holes in a Falcons defense allowing the third-most passing yards (306.7) and points (30.3).

The pick: Redskins

LIONS (3-4) AT VIKINGS (4-3-1)

Vikings by 4 1/2; O/U: 49

Detroit has won three of the last four meetings, including the last two in Minnesota. With the NFC North being so crowded (4-3, 4-3-1, 3-3-1 and 3-4), expect a competive divisional matchup. Trading Golden Tate makes me a bit more hesitant to back the Lions, but I still expect Matthew Stafford to hit on some deep shots and keep it close in a shootout.

The pick: Lions

BEARS (4-3) AT BILLS (2-6)

Bears by 10; O/U: 37 1/2

This line is absurd. Vegas is telling you that if this game were in Chicago, the Bears would be favored by 16. Sixteen! Yes, I'm aware Nathan Peterman is starting at quarterback, and Buffalo's offense is a show about nothing. Still, the defense has held its own for much of the season (Tom Brady didn't throw a TD on MNF), and was the main reason for the team's two wins. Buffalo can force Mitchell Trubisky into a turnover or two, hit a few field goals and lose a 17-12 type of slugfest.

The pick: Bills

4 P.M. GAMES

RAMS (8-0) AT SAINTS (6-1)

Rams by 1; O/U: 59 1/2

TV: Ch. 5

This is as good as it gets. In what looks as if it will be a preview of the NFC Championship Game, this game also could determine home field for the playoffs. You can make the argument for either team here. They're both well-coached and loaded with offensive star power. The Saints have won six in a row, and the Rams are the lone unbeaten team. L.A. is 4-0 on the road this season (2-2 ATS) and 11-1 overall under coach Sean McVay. Many are predicting this will be the Rams' first loss, and maybe that first sense of doubt will fuel them. New Orleans allows the fewest rushing yards per game at 74.1, but can it contain Todd Gurley and his NFL-best 800 rushing yards? Even if it does, I think Jared Goff's arm and McVay's game plan will find a way to exploit the Saints secondary and outduel Drew Brees in a thriller. Call it Rams 34, Saints 30.

The pick: Rams

CHARGERS (5-2) AT SEAHAWKS (4-3)

Seahawks by 1; O/U: 48

One is looking up at the Chiefs, the other the Rams, so this result could factor into the respective wild-card races. Interestingly, those are the only teams to beat the Chargers this season. L.A. has won four in a row, is off its bye and can score in bunches. Seattle is always a strong home bet, though, and it, too is hot, having won four out of five while getting into an offensive groove. The lone loss was a 33-31 home defeat to the unbeaten Rams. Russell Wilson has a 39-11 career home record and is a remarkable 12-0 at home against AFC teams. Give me Wilson to make the big plays late in a close finish. (Note: The Chargers were my preseason pick to make the Super Bowl, but I'm 0-7 picking their games ATS).

The pick: Seahawks

TEXANS (5-3) AT BRONCOS (3-5)

Broncos by 1; O/U: 46

At first glance, I thought Denver would be a good pick at home against a Houston team that lost its second-best receiver for the season. Then the Texans made a trade . . . for the Broncos' Demaryius Thomas. He replaces Will Fuller, and him facing his old team right away makes this matchup a lot more intriguing. Houston has won five in a row and the last two wins were by 13 and 19 points. Denver is a tough place to play, but look for Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins and the new guy, Thomas, to win a close one.

The pick: Texans

SUNDAY NIGHT

PACKERS (3-3-1) AT PATRIOTS (6-2)

TV: Ch. 4, 8:20 p.m.

Patriots by 5 1/2; O/U: 56 1/2

Tom Brady vs. Aaron Rodgers is ratings gold.  The Packers proved me wrong for doubting them last week as they outplayed the Rams for much of the way in a 29-27 loss. Green Bay is 0-3 on the road, though, and Brady is nearly unbeatable at home (111-19 for his career). He's also 46-19 in prime time, so expect the Pats to win their sixth in a row. But also expect Rodgers to have success downfield and keep this inside the number. Play the over.

The pick: Packers

MONDAY NIGHT

TITANS (3-4) AT COWBOYS (3-4)

TV: ESPN, 8:15 p.m.

Cowboys by 5 1/2; O/U: 40 1/2

Both teams were on a bye last week, and the week before suffered heartbreaking last-second losses. Tennessee has lost three in a row and will have trouble moving the ball against Dallas' front seven. The Cowboys (3-0 at home) allow the third-fewest yards (313.7) and second-fewest points (17.6) per game. Dak Prescott will get Amari Cooper involved in his Cowboys debut as Dallas pulls away for the cover.

The pick: Cowboys