Week 11 NFL picks

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith (11) and Travis Kelce... — Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith (11) and Travis Kelce (87) celebrate a touchdown against the Denver Broncos during the second half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Nov. 15, 2015, in Denver. Credit: AP / Joe Mahoney

By JOE MANNIELLOjoe.manniello@newsday.comNovember 19, 2015

JETS (5-4) AT TEXANS (4-5)

TV: Ch. 2; Radio: ESPN (98.7)

Jets by 2 1/2; O/U: 41

It's amazing how fast things change in the NFL. The Jets were 4-1 and the Texans were 1-4. Now, the Jets have lost three of four, the Texans have won three of four, and Houston has a better chance to make the playoffs. That's because the Texans play in the AFC South, where 8-8 might earn a division title, and the Jets play in the AFC East, where the Patriots basically clinched the crown in Week 7. Houston went into Cincinnati on Monday and held an unbeaten team that was averaging 28.6 points per game to six. That's impressive, and I think J.J. Watt and Houston's defense builds off of that. Ryan Fitzpatrick loses to one of his old teams for a second straight week, and the Texans' 'D' is the difference in a low-scoring game.

The pick: Texans

REDSKINS (4-5)

AT PANTHERS (9-0)

TV: Ch. 5

Panthers by 7; O/U: 451/2

Taking the Redskins at home, where they're 4-1? I like that! But sorry, Kirk Cousins, I can't trust you on the road (0-4 with 4 TDs and 7 INTs), where the Redskins have been outscored by an average of 12 points. Cam Newton hands out more touchdown balls to Panthers fans as Carolina rolls to 10-0.

The pick: Panthers

COWBOYS (2-7)

AT DOLPHINS (4-5)

Pick 'em; O/U: 47 1/2

The Cowboys get Tony Romo back, so they've got to win this week, right? Dallas went 0-7 without Romo, but five games were decided by 6, 7, 1, 6 and 4 points. I took Dallas in five of the seven games without Romo, and went 1-4 against the spread (ATS). If I took them with Brandon Weeden and Matt Cassel, I'm taking them with Romo. I also have no idea which Miami team will show up.

The pick: Cowboys

BRONCOS (7-2)

AT BEARS (4-5)

Bears by 1; O/U: 41 1/2

I love the Bears in this game . . . and that was even before the Peyton Manning news. I thought John Fox and Jay Cutler would want to go all out to get a win against their former team. The Broncos turn to Brock Osweiler, who despite being 6-7, has been living in Manning's shadow the last four years. Fox knows Osweiler's tendencies, and I'm sure he will share that information with his defense. After an 0-3 start, Bears have won four of six and are in the wild-card mix. They're also 3-0 against the AFC West. This feels like a 17-13 kind of game, and I like the Bears to stay hot.

The pick: Bears

BUCS (4-5) AT EAGLES (4-5)

Eagles by 6; O/U: 45

Tampa Bay has played well on the road (2-2), and while I think Philly will win, this is too many points with which to trust Mark Sanchez..

The pick: Bucs

COLTS (4-5)

AT FALCONS (6-3)

Falcons by 6; O/U: 47

All Atlanta heard during its bye was that it was the most overrated team in the NFL. That happens when a team loses three of four, the last after its coach opts for a field goal at the goal line down four with three minutes left. Atlanta will be pumped up, but this is too many points. Indy is also off a bye, and Matt Hasselbeck (2-0 this season) is a capable fill-in. Take the points.

The pick: Colts

RAMS (4-5) AT RAVENS (2-7)

Ravens by 2 1/2; O/U: 41 1/2

Even with the Rams starting Case Keenum at QB, it's hard to pick the Ravens. Their seven losses are by a combined 32 points, which can take a toll. The Rams can't afford to drop a third straight if they want to stay in the NFC wild-card race.

The pick: Rams

RAIDERS (4-5) AT LIONS (2-7)

Raiders by 1; O/U: 48 1/2

Detroit is coming off its version of the Super Bowl -- winning at Green Bay, something it hadn't done since 1991. Can you say letdown? Oakland is the superior team, and after back-to-back losses, needs to win here to stay in the AFC wild-card picture.

The pick: Raiders

LOCK OF THE WEEK

CHIEFS (4-5)

AT CHARGERS (2-7)

Chiefs by 3; O/U: 45

You heard it here first:: The Chiefs are making the playoffs. I wrote them off after a 1-5 start, but now I'm penciling them in as an AFC wild card or . . . maybe even AFC West champs. Sounds crazy, right? But look at their schedule: Chargers twice, Raiders twice, Bills, Browns and Ravens. I think they can go 6-1. The Broncos, meanwhile, still have games against the Patriots, Steelers and Bengals. The Chiefs' defense is allowing 14 points per game over their last five contests. Kansas City's confidence is Mile-High after winning at Denver, and I think the Chiefs will extend their win streak to four against a San Diego team that has been bitten by the injury bug and has lost five in a row.

The pick: Chiefs

PACKERS (6-3)

AT VIKINGS (7-2)

TV: Ch. 5

Vikings by 1; O/U: 44 1/2

The Vikings have won five in a row and are an NFL-best 8-1 ATS. That's eight straight covers after a season-opening loss on Monday night. Green Bay, meanwhile, has lost three in a row and is 0-4 ATS in its last four. Aaron Rodgers and the offense is really missing Jordy Nelson. The Vikings are allowing 17.1 points per game, the second fewest, and are 4-0 at home. I think they'll be pumped to make a statement vs. their division rival.

The pick: Vikings

49ERS (3-6)

AT SEAHAWKS (4-5)

Seahawks by 13; O/U: 39

This is a lot of points for a team that is a shell of itself from the Super Bowl seasons. San Francisco, off a bye, finds a way to keep it inside the number.

The pick: 49ers

BENGALS (8-1)

AT CARDINALS (7-2)

TV: Ch. 4, 8:20 p.m.

Radio: WFAN (660, 101.9)

Cardinals by 5; O/U: 49

Ronda Rousey wasn't the only favorite who felt the wrath of the underdog last week. Holly Holm's UFC upset kickstarted the action, then NFL underdogs posted a whopping 11-3 ATS record in Week 10 to raise their season mark to 78-63-4. Even more remarkable, 10 of the 14 underdogs won outright. No result was more surprising than double-digit favorite Cincinnati losing at home on Monday night. An 8-1 team facing a 7-2 team is still a dream matchup, but you can bet NBC flexed this game because it envisioned Cincy being 9-0. I still think Cincy (7-1-1 ATS) is for real. Sometimes, a loss like that on national TV can motivate a team. I like Carson Palmer's old team to win outright against Carson Palmer's new team.

The pick: Bengals

BILLS (5-4)

AT PATRIOTS (9-0)

TV: ESPN, 8:30 p.m.

Radio: WFAN (660, 101.9)

Patriots by 7; O/U: 48

If Rex Ryan follows up his win over the Jets by handing the Patriots their first loss, well, that might even make him speechless. The Pats lost Julian Edelman, and the O-line is hurting, so their games will be closer. Underdogs on Monday are 9-2, but I'll lay the points because the Pats still have Tom Brady, who is 24-3 all-time vs. the Bills. That includes a 40-32 win in Week 2 that at one point was 37-13. Bold prediction of the week: Former Bills TE Scott Chandler, and not Rob Gronkowski, has two TD catches.

The pick: Patriots

STAFF PICKS (Best bets in ALL CAPS)

JOE MANNIELLO 67-75-4, 5-4-1 best bets

Last week: 5-9

Texans Panthers Cowboys Bears

Bucs Colts Rams

Raiders CHIEFS Vikings

49ers Bengals Patriots

BOB GLAUBER 71-71-4, 4-6

Last week: 5-9

Texans Panthers Cowboys Broncos

Eagles Falcons Ravens