Week 12 NFL picks

GIANTS (5-5) AT REDSKINS (4-6), 1 p.m.

TV: Ch. 5; Radio: WFAN (660, 101.9)

Giants by 3; O/U: 47

The Giants and Jets both play at 1 p.m., and it will happen again next Sunday when they face off. But first things first for the first-place Giants: A trip to Washington. Eli Manning is 16-6 straight up against the Redskins, and the Giants have won the last five meetings. Still, the Redskins are a different team at home. They’re 4-1 and have won four in a row, including a 47-14 rout over the Saints’ 32nd-ranked defense. The Giants’ ‘D’ is 31st-ranked, so I think Kirk Cousins can do it again. The Giants, off a bye and needing a win to keep their lead, are the obvious pick. But the Redskins are home, and to paraphrase Cousins, I like that!

The pick: Redskins

DOLPHINS (4-6)

AT JETS (5-5), 1 p.m.

TV: Ch. 2; Radio: ESPN (98.7)

Jets by 42; O/U: 42 1/2

When these teams arrived home after their London game in Week 4, they were going in different directions. The Jets were 3-1 and flying high. The Dolphins were 1-3 and fired their coach. Now both teams are struggling and need a win to boost their fading playoff chances. The way the Jets have looked lately, it’s hard to pick them. I’ll bank on Dan Campbell pumping his team up for a revenge game.

The pick: Dolphins

BILLS (5-5 AT CHIEFS (5-5)

Chiefs by 6 1/2; O/U: 41 1/2

A quick AFC playoff primer: The Patriots, Broncos, Bengals, Colts/Texans/Jaguars most likely will be the four division winners. I think the Steelers will earn one of the two wild cards, leaving one spot. The winner of this game very well could be that last team in. Kansas City’s defense is playing lights-out, allowing just 39 points during a four-game winning streak. The Chiefs’ pass rush will frustrate Tyrod Taylor, and Alex Smith will make just enough plays to win.

The pick: Chiefs

SAINTS (4-6) AT TEXANS (5-5)

Texans by 3; O/U: 48

Firing a coach or coordinator sometimes can fire up a team in its next game. It happened this season for the Dolphins and Colts. Will the Saints’ defense respond after Rob Ryan got the ax? I doubt it. New Orleans needs to win to stay in the wild-card hunt. But the Texans have turned their season around and have a strong shot at winning the AFC South. Unlike the Saints’ last-ranked defense, the Texans’ ‘D’ is playing exceptionally well: 29 points allowed during a three-game win streak. J.J. Watt hauls in a TD pass, DeAndre Hopkins catches two himself, and Houston stays hot.

The pick: Texans

LOCK OF THE WEEK

VIKINGS (7-3)

AT FALCONS (6-4)

Falcons by 1 1/2; O/U: 45

If the playoffs started today, these teams would be the NFC wild cards. When the playoffs actually start, I say only the Vikings will be there. When I first saw this line, my jaw literally dropped: Falcons favored? Really? The same team that has lost four of five, including two in a row at home to the Bucs and Colts? Minnesota has a strong defense and plenty of offensive weapons to win this game comfortably. I think the Vikings were too hyped up for last week’s division battle with the Packers, and feel that they’ll play more like the team that had won five straight and covered eight in a row.

The pick: Vikings

BUCS (5-5) AT COLTS (5-5)

Colts by 3; O/U: 46 1/2

Don’t look now, but the Bucs are in the hunt for a wild card. Jameis Winston (5 TD passes) and Doug Martin (235 rushing yards) are coming off monster games, and Tampa Bay’s offense will give Indy trouble. The Bucs have won three of four (2-0 on the road). They’re also 5-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last six. Matt Hasselbeck is 3-0 filling in, but I think that luck runs out here, as Tampa Bay wins.

The pick: Bucs

RAMS (4-6)

AT BENGALS (8-2)

Bengals by 8 1/2; O/U: 42

After back-to-back prime-time losses, the Bengals return home for a 1 p.m. start. Just the way Andy Dalton likes it. He’s 4-9 straight up in night games, but 37-14-1 in early games. The Rams have lost three in a row, and will have their hands full. Bengals bounce back and win by 14-plus.

The pick: Bengals

RAIDERS (4-6)

AT TITANS (2-8)

Raiders by 1; O/U: 44

After the Raiders ran over the Jets, I thought they could make a playoff run. Then they lost three in a row. I don’t know what to make of them. Tennessee hasn’t won at home since Week 6 of last season. I’ll take another shot with Oakland.

The pick: Raiders

CHARGERS (2-8)

AT JAGUARS (4-6)

Jaguars by 3 1/2; O/U: 46 1/2

You know it’s a crazy season when the Jaguars are favored in back-to-back weeks. San Diego has lost six in a row and is banged up. Jacksonville has won three of four and has a shot at winning the AFC South. The Jags have a lot more to play for than do the Chargers.

The pick: Jaguars

STEELERS (6-4)

AT SEAHAWKS (5-5)

TV: Ch. 2, 4:25 p.m.

Seahawks by 3 1/2; O/U: 46

Seattle’s five wins this season are against the Bears, Lions, 49ers, Cowboys and 49ers again. None of those teams have Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant. Remember how the Cardinals went up and down the field against the Seahawks’ no longer dominant secondary two weeks ago? The Steelers will have the same success. The bye week came at the perfect time for Roethlisberger, and that extra rest will pay off. Brown and Bryant both score TDs as Seattle falls to 0-5 vs. teams with winning records.

The pick: Steelers

CARDINALS (8-2)

AT 49ERS (3-7)

Cardinals by 10; O/U: 44 1/2

Arizona is coming off back-to-back thrilling wins over the Seahawks and Bengals in prime time, so the letdown factor is in play here. Even if the Cardinals aren’t as up for this game, I still think Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald and the NFL’s top-ranked offense will do enough to cover the number. Arizona is averaging 33.6 points and 417 yards per game. The 49ers average 13.9 points and 288 yards per game, both NFL lows.

The pick: Cardinals

PATRIOTS (10-0)

AT BRONCOS (8-2)

TV: Ch. 4, 8:20 p.m.

Radio: WFAN (660, 101.9)

Patriots by 3; O/U: 43

A few weeks ago, I couldn’t wait to see this matchup of what I thought would be 10-0 teams. The Patriots have done their part, but the Broncos lost two in a row after a 7-0 start. They rebounded last week as Brock Osweiler earned his first NFL win. Osweiler fits Gary Kubiak’s offense better than does Peyton Manning, and Denver had success moving the ball with him. Denver’s defense is the biggest obstacle standing in the way of another perfect season for the Pats, who looked bad on Monday night. I think their patchwork O-line is in for a long night vs. Denver’s pass rush.

The pick: Broncos

RAVENS (3-7)

AT BROWNS (2-8)

TV: ESPN, 8:30 p.m.

Radio: WFAN (660, 101.9)

Browns by 3; O/U 41

The Ravens lost Joe Flacco and Justin Forsett for the year after already losing Steve Smith. Johnny Manziel got benched for his latest antics. Josh McCown shows him how it's done, and for one night, Cleveland rocks.

The pick: Browns

JOE MANNIELLO 74-81-5, 6-4-1 best bets

Last week: 7-6-1

Redskins Dolphins Chiefs Texans Vikings Bucs

Bengals Raiders

Jaguars

Steelers Cardinals

Broncos

Browns