Tadej Pogačar is starting his first Giro d'Italia as the overwhelming favorite

MILAN — Rarely has the Giro d’Italia had such an overwhelming pre-race favorite.

Tadej Pogačar is competing in the Italian grand tour for the first time in an audacious attempt at the Giro-Tour de France double. The two-time Tour champion has been in dominant form this year.

Adding to his short odds, three of the few riders who can challenge Pogačar over a three-week race — titleholder Primož Roglič, Jonas Vingegaard and Remco Evenepoel — will not be at the Giro starting on Saturday.

“It’s going to be a big challenge coming up against Tadej. I’d prefer if he wasn’t going but at the same time having him there is great,” Geraint Thomas, last year’s runner-up, says.

“It’ll change the race completely and his team will take on the weight of the race and everything that comes with that.”

Pogačar has started only five grand tours and made it to the podium of all five. He won the Tour in 2020 and 2021, was runner-up twice more, and was third in his one and only Spanish Vuelta in 2019.

The 25-year-old UAE Team Emirates rider has been the overwhelming favorite for the Giro since he announced his decision in December.

But the Giro is often wet, wild and unpredictable, as Thomas knows only too well.

The Giro starts in Turin on Saturday and the 3,321-kilometer (2,064-mile) route ends in Rome on May 26.

POGAČAR vs THOMAS

Thomas is looking for a do-over at the Giro.

Last year, the Ineos Grenadiers cyclist had a 26-second lead over pre-race favorite Roglič going into the penultimate stage but lost 40 seconds on that mountain time trial to his rival, who stormed to the Giro victory.

Thomas faces another Slovenian star in Pogačar, and both are aiming to be the first rider to win the Giro and Tour in the same year since 1998 when Marco Pantani accomplished the double.

“You don’t think that first place is gone — if anything, it takes pressure off because everyone expects him to win. They don’t expect any of us to do anything,” Thomas says.

“It definitely makes the race different to last year … the main thing was getting here in good shape and then you just do what you can. It’s a massive task because (Pogačar is) a phenomenal bike rider — I’ve said recently probably one of the greatest ever — but we’re relishing the challenge.”

Beside his narrow loss last year, Thomas is no stranger to disappointment at the Giro, having had to abandon the race twice. In 2017, he was involved in a crash caused by a police motorbike, and three years later he broke his hip after a drinks bottle became lodged under his wheel.

“It’s the Giro, a lot can go good and go bad as we all know,” he said. “So yeah, we’re excited.”

FAST START

Grand tours traditionally start slow and steady and bunched up. Not this year. The start is expected to be explosive.

Not only will the riders tackle the second-category climb up the Colle Maddalena on the opening day but the first summit finish comes on the second stage, at the Santuario di Oropa. It will be the earliest mountain finish at the Giro since 1989 when the race began in Sicily and went up Mount Etna.

“The riders who want to win it will have to be ready from the start and I expect a lot of spectacle,” Giro director Mauro Vegni said when the route was revealed in October.

The second uphill finish is at the end of the first week with a top-category climb of more than 14 kilometers to Prato di Tivo.

“You need to be good from start to finish," Thomas says, “but I think it’s kind of nice in a way, it settles the race down quite early on.

“If anything, it’s nice to get a bit of tiredness in the peloton straight away. The thing with the Giro is you got to be strong at the end. Obviously, Stage 2 is important, but it’s not the be-all and end-all.”

DECISIVE DOLOMITES

Despite race organizers’ insistence that the finale is less tough than previous editions, the final week has three of the five stages that have been given a five-star rating for maximum difficulty.

Stage 16 features 4,400 meters of elevation and the highest point of the race, over the Stelvio Pass. That is immediately followed by the Queen Stage, the hardest leg.

Apart from one short section, the peloton will constantly be climbing or descending on the brutal 159-kilometer (99-mile) route from Selva di Val Gardena, with four classified climbs before the top category ascent to the finish on the Passo Broncon.

The winner of the Giro will likely be decided on the penultimate stage, with two category-one climbs up Monte Grappa on May 25, Thomas’ 38th birthday.

The race will transfer to Rome for the largely processional 126-kilometer (78-mile) final leg through the streets of the capital, ending near the Colosseum.