Islanders' Simon Holmstrom's scoring is down but his overall strong play is why he remains in the lineup

The statistics and analytics suggest a regression.

But neither the Islanders nor Simon Holmstrom view this season as such.

And the reason – namely because coach Patrick Roy still implicitly trusts Holmstrom’s defensive instincts and penalty-kill work – is why the 24-year-old Swede is still very much one of the Islanders’ core players.

“It definitely feels good, I’ve been working hard for it,” Holmstrom said. “You should never take anything for granted and I’m working hard every day to keep it being that way.”

The Islanders face the Ducks on Thursday night at UBS Arena in the middle match of a three-game homestand which opened with Holmstrom snapping a 14-game point drought with his first goal in 18 games as they outlasted Vegas, 5-4, in a four-round shootout.

Yet throughout the scoring slump, it seemed Roy gave little thought to pulling Holmstrom, selected 23rd overall in 2019, from the lineup. Roy even kept Holmstrom among the top-six forwards on Mathew Barzal’s line for a stretch at the start of his scoring woes before placing him on rookie center Cal Ritchie’s third line. That trio, with Anthony Duclair on the other wing, has survived the eye test in some of its tough defensive assignments even as its analytics are so-so.

Holmstrom has five goals and five assists in 30 games after setting career highs last season with 20 goals and 25 assists in 75 games.

But perhaps it’s a measure of Roy’s trust in Holmstrom and how he views how Holmstrom is playing that he said he didn’t even realize how long it had been since the right wing had scored.

“I was surprised to hear it has been a long time since he has scored a goal,” Roy said. “Somebody said 17 games, I was like, ‘Wow.’ Sometimes, you don’t really pay that much attention to that. But seeing him score today after I knew that, I’m pretty happy for him.”

“The last couple of games I hadn’t really been on the scoresheet, which is frustrating,” Holmstrom said. “When you’re not doing that, you’ve got to do something else as well. I think I’ve been playing pretty good lately.”

One reason Holmstrom’s offense blossomed last season was an increased confidence in looking to take shots. Holmstrom does have a strong wrist shot but getting him to take it was a challenge for the Islanders earlier in his career.

He could still shoot more, with 28 shots through his first 30 games.

But Holmstrom said sometimes statistics are misleading.

“I don’t know the stats for it but I’ve hit the crossbar I don’t know how many times,” Holmstrom said. “I’ve had a couple of breakaways I’ve missed. Passing the pucks to people that are shooting crossbars. It’s been a lot of posts out lately and that’s how it goes. You’ve just got to stay with it. You’ve got to do something else. You’ve got to be hard on the forecheck, you’ve got to be solid defensively. If you keep creating, I don’t think there’s a problem.”

Analytically, Holmstrom is only 15th on the Islanders with a Corsi for percentage of 46.37 according to NaturalStatTrick.com. His shots for percentage of 42.90 (136 shots for compared to 181 shots against) is 18th on the team. And his expected goals for percentage of 42.04 is 19th.

Holmstrom’s current line with Ritchie and Duclair only has a high-danger chances for percentage of 37.50.

So, no, Holmstrom is not tearing it up this season analytically.

Yet Roy repeatedly praises his defensive work. Holmstrom’s ice time would have dipped by now if Roy was being insincere.

A key factor is Holmstrom is too valuable to the Islanders’ penalty kill to exit the lineup. The Islanders went 4-for-4 against Vegas and are now 53-of-58 since Oct. 30 with that 91.4% success rate in that span ranking first in the NHL.

Holmstrom has one shorthanded goal this season. He had five in 2023-24 and there is still audible anticipation at UBS Arena whenever he and Jean-Gabriel Pageau break out on a shorthanded rush.

“We’ve been doing a good job on the penalty kill,” Holmstrom said. “It’s not about scoring goals but sometimes the power play might fall asleep a little bit.”

Regression? Holmstrom’s numbers might suggest it. But don’t tell that to Roy.

By Andrew Gross

andrew.gross@newsday.comAGrossNewsday

Andrew Gross joined Newsday in 2018 to cover the Islanders. He began reporting on the NHL in 2003 and has previously covered the Rangers and Devils. Other assignments have included the Jets, St. John’s and MLB.