Why Jean-Gabriel Pageau's return could prompt lineup decision for Islanders

This weekend’s back-to-back Florida swing with two average-or-below outings in a 2-0 win over the Lightning and a 4-1 loss to the Panthers showed some hard truths about the Islanders.

 *  The need for additional scoring help among the wings, particularly in the top six, has been noted several times in this space, with right wing Kyle Palmieri (left knee) lost for the season and third-line center Jean-Gabriel Pageau (upper body) having missed the last eight games, though his return seemingly is imminent.

Pageau, upgraded from week-to-week to day-to-day by general manager Mathieu Darche, could return as early as Tuesday night against Vegas at UBS Arena as the Islanders open a three-game homestand that concludes on Saturday with a third game against the Lightning in 12 days.

Patrick Roy might have an interesting lineup decision upon Pageau’s return. He could keep Bo Horvat and Mathew Barzal as his top-six centers and push rookie Cal Ritchie back to the fourth line. Or Roy could elevate Ritchie or Pageau into the top six and switch Barzal back to Horvat’s wing to try to spark both of their games.

The need for more scoring among the top six was very noticeable this weekend as neither Horvat’s line nor Barzal’s line was able to consistently impact the games in a positive way.

Sure, Barzal’s second-period backhander in the slot accounted for the lone goal on Sunday, but the Panthers held the Islanders’ forwards without a shot for the game’s final 26 minutes, as first noted by team statistician Eric Hornick.

“We just needed a little more tonight to win, bear down on some more chances,” fourth-line left wing Kyle MacLean said. “It was OK overall but not enough to get the job done.”

Roy swapped Simon Holmstrom onto Horvat’s line midway through Sunday’s game for rookie Max Shabanov, who then skated on Ritchie’s trio after Shabanov’s two-turnover misadventure turned into the Panthers’ second goal.

Ideally, both Holmstrom and Shabanov could play on a third line with added help in the top six.

“It’s a challenging schedule,” Roy said. “Sometimes it’s good to try different things, and that’s all we wanted to do.”

 * The Islanders still have too many games in which they are too reliant on their goaltending to give them a chance.

Of course, it’s not an unsuccessful model, given the way Ilya Sorokin is playing. He was named the NHL’s first star of the week after going 3-0-0 with a 1.33 goals-against average and a .960 save percentage. He matched Chico Resch’s franchise record with his 25th career shutout on Saturday.

 * The Panthers scored an empty-netter to seal their win, but overall the Islanders have been an improved team skating five-on-six with the opponent’s goalie pulled. They’ve scored five empty-netters and allowed opponents five goals in those situations. Last season, the Islanders’ goal differential in empty-net situations was minus-10.

The Islanders clinched Saturday’s win over the Lightning with a strong five-on-six effort in the final 3:44 that culminated with Casey Cizikas’ empty-netter with 1.6 seconds remaining.

This past Tuesday’s 2-1 win over the Lightning at UBS Arena was clinched with defenseman Adam Pelech on the ice for 2:57 of the last 3:34, defenseman Ryan Pulock playing the last 2:16, Holmstrom playing the final 2:30, Horvat playing 2:17 of the last 2:33 and Emil Heineman playing the final 2:34.

“We go over it every single time before games,” Cizikas said. “Everybody understands what’s at stake. Two points are huge in this league. Any opportunity you get to have a win, you’ve got to go out there and do your job. I think that’s what we’ve done so far. We’ve all been connected and guys are willing to get their bodies in front of pucks.”

 * The need for defense help with Alexander Romanov (right shoulder) out for the season also has been noted several times in this space. Righthanded Adam Boqvist has switched to his off-side but clearly has not won Roy’s trust. Lefthander Travis Mitchell, recalled from the Islanders’ AHL affiliate in Bridgeport, has played five of the last six games. His 13:26 with two roughing minors on Sunday represented the most ice time he’s seen on the third pair.

The lefthanded Isaiah George, a fourth-round pick in 2022 who had a goal and four assists in 33 games for the Islanders last season and has a goal and three assists in 14 AHL games this season, is working his way back from an upper-body injury.

Maybe he’s next.

By Andrew Gross

andrew.gross@newsday.comAGrossNewsday

Andrew Gross joined Newsday in 2018 to cover the Islanders. He began reporting on the NHL in 2003 and has previously covered the Rangers and Devils. Other assignments have included the Jets, St. John’s and MLB.