Steve Matthews' Belmont Stakes 2025 horse-by-horse analysis
Umberto Rispoli, atop Journalism, won the Preakness Stakes on May 17, 2025. Credit: AP/Stephanie Scarbrough
BELMONT STAKES 2025 TOP FOUR SELECTIONS
1) HILL ROAD
2) JOURNALISM
3) SOVEREIGNTY
4) CRUDO
BELMONT STAKES 2025 FIELD ANALYSIS
1. HILL ROAD
This lightly raced and still-developing 3-year-old fits the definition of a true overlay. He's 10-1 on the ML but this corner rates him with a 4-1 chance to win. He's got the benefit of the rail and he's from the Chad Brown barn, simply the best in the game for preparing a horse for a peak effort. Start a stampede to the betting windows if he's anything over 5-1.
2. SOVEREIGNTY
Was wisely given time to recover after his Kentucky Derby victory. That's a positive. The negatives: 1. He benefitted enormously from the sizzling early fractions in the Derby. 2. He's likely to be bet well below his actual chances of winning. 3. We never wager a dime on underlays.
3. RODRIGUEZ
Has been sidelined for more than two months with a bruised foot since getting away cheap on the lead to win the Wood Memorial. With an absurdly low 6-1 ML, we'll pass. For baseball fans only.
4. UNCAGED
His name sounds intimidating but he's been anything but that on the racetrack. Light years behind most of this field on speed figures. No way.
5. CRUDO
Fun facts: His name means raw in Italian and he's partially owned by celebrity chef Bobby Flay. He has the potential to be the lone speed and double digits on the tote board. Nice combination. No qualms from this corner if you bet him at 20-1 or greater.
6. BAEZA
The namesake of Braulio Baeza, a great jockey from the 1960s-70s. His late rally in the Derby might have been "dressed up" as he was taking advantage of weary runners in the stretch. Having Flavien Prat in the saddle can only hurt the price as well. Not how we play the game.
7. JOURNALISM
Journalism the most pure talent in the field and he showed he's got guts when he surged through a tight spot to win the Preakness. The most likely winner but the price won't be on your side. Your move.
8. HEART OF HONOR
Showed little heart with a non-threatening fifth in the Preakness. He's 30-1 on the ML for a reason.
