Steve Matthews' Belmont at the Big A selections for Thursday, Oct. 13
Best bet: SARATOGA FLASH (8)
Best value: UMBRIA (4)
FIRST: Tekila's ability to pass horses could prove the key in weak opener. In Traffic is training sharply for first start in 10 months; dangerous. Gracefully Wild has finished second in last three starts; must consider.
SECOND: Sealithic has won two in a row at Finger Lakes; ready for prime time. Vallarand is fresh and drops to lifetime low; be no surprise. My Sweet Wife could impact if pace meltdown ensues.
THIRD: Kemba projects as the main speed on the hedge with heads-up handling. Cafe Fleur runs late and could be in the garden if top pick wilts in the lane. Mia at Midnight is a front-end threat on best efforts.
FOURTH: Umbria logged fast final fraction when a clear-cut winner in last; pairs up. Charger gets confident price hike in first start since claimed; very interesting. Hometown was a front-running winner when odds-on last time; logical, short-priced contender.
FIFTH: Don't Let Me Down has trained consistently since non-stressful third in debut; forward move predicted. Three Zero displayed newfound speed in last; dangerous. Best Defense, a January foal, was purchased for $450K as a yearling; follow the money.
SIXTH: My Delicious makes third start of form cycle; breakthrough expected. Freudian has light work tab and drops to lifetime low; fire sale? Merger of Equals owns competitive back numbers; don't dismiss.
SEVENTH: Uptown Express was a useful sixth in key-race debut; class drop seals the deal. Bern Rosey Bern also gets class relief and owns speed and moves to dirt; very interesting. Queen of Lies, another that's quick from gate, is training swiftly for first start in two months; don't ignore.
EIGHTH: Saratoga Flash logged swift late-pace figure when a hard-charging winner in last; more to come. Call Me Harry, a wire-to-wire victor in most recent; has trained sharply in the interim; speedy and dangerous. Catch That Party has won three of last four; logical, short-priced player.
NINTH: Science was a tough-trip fifth in last at Pimlico; call based on price. Vocalize owns fast figures and returns to claiming ranks; big-time threat. Swashbuckle is more than good enough on best efforts. Loaded Joe is fresh and owns positional speed; don't ignore.
