Steve Matthews' Saratoga selections for Thursday, Aug. 11
Best bet: H. T. XENA (8)
Best value: SUCCULENT (10)
FIRST: Cold Walker adds blinkers and projects as the main speed with proper ride. Sensibleconclusion will be the prime beneficiary if top selection stops. Salt Cay regressed in last after fast-figured placing in prior; return to dirt is key.
SECOND: Angelinka drops in first start for new barn; improvement predicted. Violent Point moves to grass after wire-to-wire win in last; worth long look. Bay Jewel would be aided by fast fractions; don't ignore.
THIRD: Preposterous makes peak start of form cycle after improved placing in last; more to come. Belarus was freshened after hard-fought maiden win on June 12; very playable with tight work tab for return. Clara Belle gets class relief and returns to dirt; must consider.
FOURTH: Cotton displayed improved speed in last; slight cutback in distance seals the deal. Not Phar Now fired half-mile bullet since front-running score in last; very dangerous. Straw Into Gold could be in the garden if pace meltdown ensues.
FIFTH: Mr. Connecticut was compromised by soft splits last time and owns fast back figures. Pivotal Run logged career-best effort on Spa sod last summer; very interesting. The Sleepychipmunk has benefit of the rail in paceless race; don't ignore.
SIXTH: Curly Larry and Mo holds experience edge in nine-horse field with 10 newcomers. Blame It On Daddy is from a dam that produced stakes-winning runner; charting a must. Max Foster (bullet drills) and Storm and Empire (win-early pedigree) are uncoupled firsters from Jeffrey Englehart barn; take your pick.
SEVENTH: Grumps Little Tots failed to fire in the slop last time; dry land makes the difference. Pioneer Spirit drops and cuts back to more manageable distance; big-time player. Air Attack has the rail and logs fast numbers on best efforts; be no surprise.
EIGHTH: H. T. Xena should pack intensified wallop with turnback to 7 furlongs. Backyard Money logged determined maiden score in first outing on Spa soil; worth long look. Bella Principessa should be aided by return to dirt; don't ignore.
NINTH: Benbang is riding a two-race winning streak; more to come. Poppy Flower packs potent late wallop and looms the prime beneficiary if top selection wilts at crunch time. Derrynane is another that could impact if pace meltdown ensues.
10TH: Succulent was victimized by wide trip and slow fractions last time; set for breakthrough in third start of form cycle. Bavarian Creme should be favorably positioned near the front in field that's light on speed. Arisaema bounced last out; must be factored into mix if able to escape AE list. Can't Fool Me compiled tight work tab for first start since April; very interesting.
