Steve Matthews' Kentucky Derby 2024 horse-by-horse analysis
Kentucky Derby hopeful Domestic Product waits to work out at Churchill Downs on Tuesday, April 30, 2024, in Louisville, Ky. Credit: AP/Charlie Riedel
Man, I love the first Saturday in May. Remember, wagering on the chaos of horse racing is more about price than handicapping.
KENTUCKY DERBY TOP FOUR SELECTIONS
- 15 - DOMESTIC PRODUCT (Minimum odds to make a win wager 10-1)
- 4 - CATCHING FREEDOM (10-1)
- 1 - DORNOCH (20-1)
- 2 - SIERRA LEONE (5-1)
KENTUCKY DERBY FIELD ANALYSIS
1) DORNOCH
He has positional speed and fired a crisp half-mile work over the track last Saturday. He's never been more than 5-2 in six career starts and he's 20-1 on the morning line. Put him on your contender list if he's 20-1 or greater.
2) SIERRA LEONE
Certainly, has the credentials on paper. From the Chad Brown barn, Grade 1 winner and 3-for-4 lifetime. But he figures to attract far too much cash for our liking. Obviously can win, but I wouldn't take anything less than 5-1 in a likely 20-horse field.
3) MYSTIK DAN
He owns fast late-pace figures and outworked 71 rivals in a 5-furlong work over the track on April 20. Put him in the mix if 20-1 or better.
4) CATCHING FREEDOM
Owns fast late-pace figures, sharp recent works over the Churchill Downs surface and running style that should handle the 1 1/4-mile trip. Big-time player if 10-1 or more.
5) CATALYTIC
Lightly raced and developing with each start but would have to make a huge forward move on the final figures to contend. Steer clear if he's anything less than 60-1.
6) JUST STEEL
Was a clear-cut second in the Arkansas Derby (the winner, Muth, is trained by Bob Baffert and is barred from the race). Would be the feel-good story of the day if he can become fifth Derby winner for 88-year-old D. Wayne Lukas. Bet against it if less than 30-1.
7) HONOR MARIE
From the below-the-radar barn of D. Whitworth Beckman, a Todd Pletcher protege. He owns two wins at Churchill Downs and is riding a "healthy line" on the numbers. Factor him into the fray if final odds exceed 19-1.
8) JUST A TOUCH
This corner wouldn't touch him at less than 30-1. He's off a “double top” in his last race, which in pace handicapping speak means he earned career bests in both internal and final figures. Such big efforts usually lead to a backward step in the next race.
10) T O PASSWORD
Japanese import Number 1. Hasn't lost in two lifetime starts but this is really asking a lot. 100-1 shot at best.
11) FOREVER YOUNG
Japanese import Number 2. This one is 5-for-5, including the UAE Derby. Does deserve some scrutiny but let the price dictate your move. 30-1 or greater.
12) TRACK PHANTOM
He's speedy and adds blinkers, positives in any horse race. The unknown is whether he can handle the distance. I wouldn't speculate unless he's a minimum of 40-1.
13) WEST SARATOGA
This one represents the epitome of every runner having a price on their heads. Appears hopeless on paper but if offered at 300-1 or greater on the tote, he's worthy of a wager. It's not going to happen.
14) ENDLESSLY
He's only raced on the Tapeta surface or grass but he's chalked up five wins from six starts. Sure, it's a gamble to think he can pull this off, but at 50-1 or more you've got the odds in your favor.
15) DOMESTIC PRODUCT
This 3-year-old from the Chad Brown barn tallied a sizzling late-pace figure when winning the non-wagering (due to a tote issue) Tampa Bay Derby last out. He fits Brown's classic pattern of a freshener along with a tightly grouped workout tab. This handicapper's top selection, provided he's at least 10-1 at post time.
16) GRAND MO THE FIRST
Has never won a race beyond 5 ½ furlongs and has no workouts at Churchill. He's got a 50-1 ML and but more like a 500-1 chance to win.
17) FIERCENESS
All the rage after his fierce 13-length romp in the Florida Derby. He's the 5/2 ML favorite to take down all the cash but he has shown a disturbing pattern of "bouncing" (take a backward step) after his big-figure efforts. He'd need to be 6-1 or greater before I'd wager.
18) STRONGHOLD
His final numbers are in the ballpark, but he benefited big time from a scorching early pace to win the Santa Anita Derby last time. Just don't think he'll have enough at crunch time; 35-1 or greater.
19) RESILIENCE
Received the most perfect of perfect trips to win the Wood Memorial. Highly doubtful he'll get the same setup in this bulky field. Playable, but you should get 30-1 or better before taking the money clip off.
20) SOCIETY MAN
Second to Resilience at 106-1 in the Wood. Only has a maiden to his credit but if you get 100-1 or greater again, he could warrant a play.
21) EPIC RIDE
Draws in because of the scratch of No. 9 Encino. Looks severely distance challenged. Demand 250-1 or more before heading to the windows.
