With US, Canada and Mexico through, the World Cup knockout round hinges on who finishes third

As group play winds down at the World Cup, the biggest intrigue might not be who finishes first in a four-team group.

It’s who finishes third.

Teams that are first and second in their groups move on automatically to the Round of 32. The United States, Canada and Mexico, co-hosts of the tournament, have all advanced, along with France, Germany, Brazil, Norway and others.

The U.S. will face Bosnia-Herzegovina on Wednesday in Santa Clara, California, while Canada heads to Southern California to face South Africa on Sunday. Other marquee matchups are set, including Morocco versus the Netherlands, Japan versus Brazil and Norway versus Ivory Coast.

Third place is no guarantee. The eight best third-place teams also get in, with ties broken by goal differential and goals scored, if necessary.

Teams with four points — a win, a draw and a loss — almost certainly will make the Round of 32. Bosnia-Herzegovina, Sweden and Ecuador already advanced that way, and Paraguay is poised to join that group, which would mean four qualifiers left.

That leaves eight other third-place teams for the final four spots, including Senegal, which routed Iraq 5-0. Others with three points are also hoping for the best.

“I personally didn’t want to end up in this kind of situation, where we have to wait and see if we will reach the knockouts,” South Korea forward Son Heung-min said. “It’s disappointing that we didn’t get the outcome we deserved, considering the amount of hard work we’ve done, but it’s out of our hands now and we will have to accept our fate, whatever it will be.”

Some matches to watch closely Friday night on the third-place front:

Group G

Egypt (four points) vs. Iran (two points): Egypt would likely be a third-place qualifier even with a loss, provided that loss isn’t by a ton of goals. Iran would be heavily favored to advance as a third-place team with a draw. (Belgium and New Zealand each has a mathematically possible chance of finishing third in Group G.)

Group H

Cape Verde (two points) vs. Saudi Arabia (one point): Cape Verde will advance (as a first- or second-place team) with a win. The Saudis need a win to advance, as well.

Uruguay (two points) vs. Spain (four points): Uruguay would likely qualify as a third-place team with a draw. If it loses, it goes home.

Here are the Round of 32 matchups already set:

US vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina, July 1

The Americans had their powerful momentum from two consecutive victories stalled in the loss to Turkey. But in the knockout round, they’ll face a Bosnia-Herzegovina team that is 62nd in the FIFA rankings — the lowest-ranked World Cup qualifier from Europe. Bosnia finished third in Group B with four points. U.S. star Christian Pulisic entered as a substitute in the second half against Turkey. He had not played since leaving an opening win over Paraguay at halftime with a calf injury. “We play every game like a knockout game,” said U.S. midfielder Sebastian Berhalter, who scored against Turkey. “You saw that in our intensity and the way we worked. For us, it’s keep doing what we’ve been doing.”

South Africa vs. Canada, June 28

These nations have already made history. It'll be the first time both are in the knockout stage of the World Cup. Co-host Canada advanced as runner-up in Group B with four points — one win, one draw and one loss. South Africa was runner-up in Group A, also with four points, including a surprising win over South Korea.

Brazil vs. Japan, June 29

Japan advanced as Group F runner-up with a hard fought 1-1 draw against Sweden and the Samurai Blue's reward is a knockout match against five-time World Cup champion Brazil. It'll be a full-circle moment for Japan, which welcomed Brazilian soccer legend Zico in 1991. He was brought in to professionalize the country's new domestic league and support Japan's successful bid to co-host the World Cup in 2002. Now, the Japanese have a chance to show how far they've come against a country that has set the standard.

Netherlands vs. Morocco, June 29

The Netherlands won Group F after a draw with Japan and outscoring Sweden and Tunisia by a combined 8-2. Morocco went unbeaten to finish second in Group C in pursuit of becoming the first African winner of the World Cup. Morocco reached the semifinals four years ago in Qatar.

Norway vs. Ivory Coast, June 30

It would have taken beating favored France for Norway to win Group I. Instead, coach Ståle Solbakken opted to rest Erling Haaland and all but one starter. That sets up a matchup against the Ivory Coast at the Dallas Cowboys' stadium in Arlington, Texas, on Tuesday.