Waiting could be ticket to cheaper fares
These days, buying airline tickets far in advance may not get you the best price. Credit: iStock
When it comes to airfares, early booking usually gets you a better price, right?
With airlines changing the way they price tickets and the economic outlook withering once again, it's no longer necessarily true. Buy too early and you risk paying too much.
Just ask anyone who bought a ticket in January or February for travel this summer to Europe and many U.S. destinations.
"The fares on many routes for summer travel dropped from what the airlines were charging in winter and early spring, and some have dropped as much as $700," Tom Parsons, CEO of BestFares.com, reminded his customers recently.
What happened?
EMPTY SEATS Airlines set fares high, anticipating an improved economy and more demand. But unemployment stayed high, and food and fuel prices rose. Business travel steadied, but vacation travelers cut back.
Yapta.com found that of 20,000 purchased flights it tracked for travelers who bought tickets between January and May for use in June through August, 25 percent qualified for refunds (usually a credit or voucher for future travel). The average savings was $328, a figure that includes multiple tickets, such as for a family, purchased on the same itinerarys.
Airlines have various refund policies when the airfare drops between when you buy a ticket and when you travel. Rebooking fees can cancel out savings, but as Yapta's data showed, some airlines, including Alaska, Southwest, JetBlue and AirTran, don't charge rebooking fees.
CHRISTMAS FARES Predicting where fares will go is tricky. But unless you see an especially good deal or there's a big sale, the smart money is on not buying too far ahead.
For Christmas fares, watch for early October price drops. Since 2006, most Christmas itineraries saw price drops in the first two weeks of October, according to 2010 data from Bing.com.
One caveat: Airlines will cut back on flights and routes after the summer vacation period ends. That means planes will be fuller, especially during peak holiday periods, and fewer seats may be available closer to the time of travel.
Do your homework. Monitor fares to get a feel for prices and volatility. Check out Bing.com's Price Predictor, which forecasts how likely fares on certain routes are to rise or fall within the next seven days. Sign up for alerts offered by travel websites, then take your best shot.
