Earnings Preview: 4Q loss seen at UAL

(AP) — United Airlines parent UAL Corp. is scheduled to report fourth-quarter results on Wednesday. Here's a summary of key developments in the period.

OVERVIEW: United's routes to Asia have long meant that its business is more tied to business traffic than other airlines. So during the recession, United suffered more than other airlines. Analysts say that United — and its shares — should benefit once business travel picks up.

Like other carriers, United has been raising bag fees and trying to raise fares. On Thursday United matched a fare increase led by American Airlines, which generally added $16 to the cost of round-trip tickets, according to FareCompare.com CEO Rick Seaney.

Meanwhile, United gets to sit on the sidelines while American fights with Delta over a deeper relationship with Japan Airlines. JAL filed for bankruptcy protection earlier this month and is expected to shrink while it reorganizes.

United is one of the two biggest U.S. carriers to Asia (Delta is the other), and United already has a partnership with JAL rival All Nippon Airways. The JAL bankruptcy could give United and ANA a chance to cherry-pick new flying in Asia.

"Our partner is not going to be happy picking up JAL's route that are not profitable. But for those that are profitable, we would be interested," United CEO Glenn Tilton said at the Wings Club in New York on Thursday.

BY THE NUMBERS: As of Friday, analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected UAL to lose about $262 million, or $1.47 per share, on revenue of $4.09 billion in the fourth quarter. That doesn't count one-time items, so UAL's final numbers under standard accounting rules could be different. Analysts expect a loss of $1.23 billion for the full year.

During the fourth quarter of 2008, UAL lost $1.3 billion — more than half of it on bad fuel hedges. Even without those hedges it would have lost $555 million. Revenue a year earlier fell 9.6 percent to $4.55 billion.

ANALYST TAKE: Analysts in general have been bullish on Chicago-based United because it stands to benefit so much if the economy recovers. Next Generation Equity Research analyst Dan McKenzie raised his UAL price target to $19, from $13 previously. He wrote that UAL is his second-highest airline pick, behind US Airways Group Inc.

McKenzie wrote that United is "the airline most levered to a recovery in international demand."

WHAT'S AHEAD: Maybe a merger with Continental. The two have long been seen as likely partners, although Continental has resisted so far. McKenzie called a United-Continental merger "inevitable" in the next six months to a year. The two are already working closely together as members of the Star Alliance airline group.

United, like other airlines, is expected to keep trying to raise fares. Domestic yields — the amount each passenger pays to fly one mile — fell 11.8 percent during 2009, according to the Air Transport Association.

STOCK PERFORMANCE: During the fourth quarter, UAL shares jumped 40 percent, from $9.22 to $12.91, as investors bet that the airline would be helped by an economic recovery. For comparison, the Amex Airline Index (which includes United) rose 17.4 percent during the same period.

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AP Airlines Writer Samantha Bomkamp in New York contributed to this report.