NY region could recoup jobs by 2014

People talk with a recruiter, center, at a recent job... — People talk with a recruiter, center, at a recent job fair in Manhattan. The metro region is likely to add 137, 200 jobs in 2012. (Dec. 12, 2011) Credit: AP

By JAMES T. MADOREjames.madore@newsday.comJanuary 18, 2012

Long Island and the rest of the New York metropolitan area will not recoup all the jobs lost in the recession until early 2014, according to a new study.

The U.S. Conference of Mayors Wednesday released a report showing that, due to weaker than anticipated economic growth last year, the New York area will not return to its pre-recession employment peak of 8.6 million jobs for two more years. That's six months longer than conference researchers predicted in June 2011.

The 30-county region, which encompasses parts of Pennsylvania and New Jersey, shed 385,300 jobs during the 18-month downturn that ended in June 2009.

"The six-month pause in economic growth last year put us six months behind where we should be in terms of employment," said Jim Diffley, chief regional economist at the research firm IHS Global Insight in Colorado.

Still, the New York region is expected to recover jobs lost in the recession far more quickly than many of the country's 363 city and suburban regions. The average recovery rate nationwide is one year longer than New York's. And a few places will not reach their respective pre-recession peak employment until after 2021, Diffley said.

The New York area will add 137,200 jobs this year, bringing total employment to about 8.5 million. The state Department of Labor reported that Long Island lost jobs year over year for most of 2011.

In Glen Cove Wednesday, Mayor Ralph Suozzi expressed optimism, saying, "I think the worst is behind us."

Suozzi, a member of the mayors conference, said his city had been somewhat insulated from job cuts in the recession because the dominant employers are health care providers, a growing sector.

Another part of Wednesday's 91-page report addressed exports, which represent a small part of the New York region's economy. The most recent full-year data -- for 2009 -- show the sale of goods made locally to foreign countries was about 6 percent of the gross metropolitan product.

Diffley attributed this minor role of exports to the decades-long decline in manufacturing. Financial services, education, health care and business services now fuel growth locally.

He and others predicted U.S. exports would slow this year because of weak demand in Canada, Great Britain and Australia, and the effects of the European debt crisis.

HSBC Securities USA economist Ryan Wang said, "With imports moving sideways in virtually all parts of the world, there is little reason to think that the U.S. can sustain the relatively strong export growth of the past two years."