From left, Alec Baldwin as Jack Donaghy, Tina Fey as...

From left, Alec Baldwin as Jack Donaghy, Tina Fey as Liz Lemon and Tracy Morgan as Tracy Jordan on "30 Rock." Credit: AP, 2006

Think of Emmy nominations as a game of musical chairs, and when the music stops... only so many seats left. Or another way of putting this: The nominations for the 65th Primetime Emmys are out Thursday morning, and expect most of the nominees from the 64th to repeat.

But there will be surprises -- that's a guarantee -- filling a few of the open chairs. And with that, on to my predictions:

"Modern Family" (ABC); "Girls" (HBO); "Arrested Development" (Netflix); "Louie" (FX); "The Big Bang Theory" (CBS); "30 Rock" (NBC)

Tina Fey ("30 Rock"); Zooey Deschanel ("New Girl"); Lena Dunham ("Girls"); Julia Louis-Dreyfus ("Veep"); Amy Poehler ("Parks & Recreation"); Laura Dern ("Enlightened")

Alec Baldwin ("30 Rock"); Don Cheadle ("House of Lies"); Jim Parsons ("Big Bang Theory"); Louis C.K. ("Louie"); Jake Johnson ("New Girl"), Jason Bateman ("Arrested Development")

"Breaking Bad" (AMC); "Game of Thrones" (HBO); "Mad Men" (AMC); "Homeland" (Showtime); "Downton Abbey" (PBS); "House of Cards" (Netflix)

Bryan Cranston ("Breaking Bad"); Jon Hamm ("Mad Men"); Ving Rhames ("Monday Mornings"); Kevin Spacey ("House of Cards"); Jeff Daniels ("The Newsroom"); Jonny Lee Miller ("Elementary")

Kerry Washington ("Scandal"); Claire Danes ("Homeland"); Connie Britton ("Nashville"); Keri Russell ("The Americans"); Robin Wright ("House of Cards"); Julianna Margulies ("The Good Wife")

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