Our critic picks who this year's Emmy winners will be (or should be)

Strange year, strange Emmys.

Airing Sunday (CBS/2, 8 p.m.) and streaming too (Paramount+), the ceremony will be hosted by Cedric the Entertainer (star of CBS' "The Neighborhood"), who will get to work at a half-empty Microsoft Theater where a "limited audience" of nominees and guests will gather. What they will see — what you will — is a ceremony honoring the hodgepodge of an industry that was mothballed for much of 2020 and which struggled to get back to normalcy in 2021.

Hodgepodge yes, but unworthy? Hardly. For the most part, the nominees for the 73rd annual Primetime Emmys are excellent. But what they are not is particularly familiar to a wide audience. These Emmys will celebrate the esoteric, the odd, and the out-there (really out there: "WandaVision," anybody?)

And easily the most diverse slate of nominees in Emmy history, the 73rd annual awards also reflect the bounty of a huge industry that was slow to awaken, and now fancies itself fully "woke." We'll see how that turns out Sunday night too.

But will you watch? That does seem to be the biggest question of all, right? Just under 7 million tuned in last year, down 30% from the year before. As an annual rite that honors TV's best and announces the launch of a new fall season, the Emmys telecast is flirting with irrelevance.

That's not good for these still vitally important awards. It's not good for TV either.

Here are my picks for the major categories:

COMEDY

Black-ish (ABC)

Cobra Kai (Netflix)

Emily in Paris (Netflix)

Hacks (HBO Max)

The Flight Attendant (HBO Max)

The Kominsky Method (Netflix)

Pen15 (Hulu)

Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)

More than any other category, comedy best reflects the fractured state of the Emmys in 2021. Save "Black-ish, each one of these is on a streaming service. Not even HBO could crack this group. Professional critics — mostly cranks and misanthropes by nature — hated "Emily," but Academy members and Netflix subscribers didn't. (They were right, by the way. "Emily's" a charmer.) Then there's this. Not all of these shows are true comedies. "Hacks," for example, is a drama with comic elements. Each episode runs 30 minutes so per Emmy's increasingly outdated parameters, that makes it a de facto "comedy."

SHOULD WIN "Black-ish"

Those viewers (or Academy voters) not entirely obsessed with all these newfangled streaming series saw in "black-ish" a sitcom that embraced the zeitgeist as few ever have: Former President Donald Trump, the 2020 election, the First Amendment, Defund the Police, the pandemic, George Floyd, social media and critical race theory each found their way into episodes. One of them, "Gary is Calling" — about white guilt — could almost be interpreted as a poke at the TV industry and the Emmys themselves. (Anthony Anderson's Dre: "If they could flip a switch and care, they could just as easily flip a switch and go back to not caring.") "Black-ish '' was a show about something — the messy, fraught, divided world circa right now. You'll be able to watch this 20 years from now and see what much of the country was talking about — or screaming about — in 2021.

WILL WIN "Ted Lasso"

You don't earn 20 nominations, the most for a freshman comedy in history, and walk away with a few consolation prizes. No, you walk away with the big prize. "Lasso" came into this with the Big Mo, and Mo wins every time.

ACTRESS, COMEDY

Aidy Bryant, "Shrill"

Kaley Cuoco, "The Flight Attendant"

Allison Janney, "Mom"

Tracee Ellis Ross, "black-ish"

Jean Smart, "Hacks"

This category is not quite a fair fight. It has one multicamera ("Mom") versus four single camera shows and an actress on a multicam sitcom hasn't been honored in a decade. Meanwhile, Smart — widely considered the favorite to win — turned in a first-rate dramatic performance if not exactly a comic one.

SHOULD WIN Janney

Janney wrapped her eight-season run as recovering alcoholic Bonnie Plunkett in the most memorable way possible — in tears — but she also, at long last, has earned this win. The Academy rubber-stamped Julia Louis-Dreyfus six straight times, erasing Janney's few chances. She' has one last chance to take it home Sunday. Here's hoping.

WILL WIN Smart

It's hard to imagine a scenario that doesn't bring Smart onstage Sunday. HBO Max shrewdly submitted a crowd-pleaser episode for nomination ("1.69 Million") and an Emmy-pleaser one too.

ACTOR, COMEDY

Anthony Anderson, "black-ish"

Michael Douglas, "The Kominsky Method"

William H. Macy, "Shameless"

Jason Sudeikis, "Ted Lasso"

Kenan Thompson, "Kenan"

I won't embarrass Anderson and Macy by saying how many times they've been nominated without a win (OK, 13, to sate your curiosity.) But it's not their embarrassment as much as the Academy's. Time to make amends?

SHOULD WIN Anderson

As executive producer of "black-ish," long-overlooked Anderson was the man who helped pilot the 7th season. But as the star, he was the one who helped sell it. Father/ husband/ advertising executive Dre found himself (or placed himself) in the middle of raging national debates about race, history and the country's future. Sometimes he was on the losing side, sometimes the winning, but he always made those debates real and urgent.

WILL WIN Sudeikis

Sudeikis established a likable, original character from the first frame, whose can-do, upbeat, lets-go style seemed to resonate with a nation of iPhone owners weary of a pandemic and lost year. Right place, right time, and — as far as fans are concerned — right win.

DRAMA

"The Boys" (Amazon)

"Bridgerton" (Netflix)

"The Crown" (Netflix)

"The Handmaid’s Tale" (Hulu)

"Lovecraft Country" (HBO)

"The Mandalorian" (Disney+)

"Pose" (FX)

"This Is Us" (NBC)

While the 2020-21 TV season was down, this drama category establishes that it was far from out. The absence of shows like "Succession" or "Better Call Saul'' almost certainly opened the door for a couple of outliers ("The Boys," maybe "Bridgerton'' or "Lovecraft"). They're all good but not all winners.

SHOULD WIN "The Crown"

Sure, fans of "Pose" or "This Is Us' ' or "The Mandalorian" can mount their own arguments in favor of their show, but they'd have to convince Academy members too. The members know "The Crown '' was this year's best drama.

WILL WIN "The Crown"

Logic would appear to consecrate this victory. If the first three seasons were excellent, and the fourth was flat-out great, then should that not determine the outcome of this race? It should. It will. Yes, both "The Mandalorian" and "The Crown" got 24 nods each, but the quixotic way that shows are nominated would tilt this tie in "The Crown's" favor. "WandaVision" for example was nominated in the "limited series" category, so why not "Mandalorian" too?

ACTRESS, DRAMA

Uzo Aduba, "In Treatment"

Olivia Colman, "The Crown"

Emma Corrin, "The Crown"

Elisabeth Moss, "The Handmaid’s Tale"

Mj Rodriguez, "Pose"

Jurnee Smollett, "Lovecraft Country"

More than any other category of the 73rd Emmys, this is where Emmy history could be made. There are three nominees who are persons of color (Aduba, Rodriguez, Smollett) which has never happened before. Then there's this: Rodriguez is the first transgender woman ever nominated for a major Emmy.

SHOULD WIN Corrin

Sorry, Blanca, as great as you were, there was still Corrin's Princess Diana. Her Diana was magnificent. She honored her subject as only a brilliant, and moving, performance can.

WILL WIN Rodriguez.

The TV Academy — for so many years, the hidebound TV Academy — is acutely aware that history is on the line here. It wants to prove that it's progressive, certainly more progressive than the Motion Picture Academy. Here's the chance. Rodriguez has made the decision easy for them. Her nominated episode, the series finale, was effectively crafted for her character, Blanca Evangelista. About so much — HIV, Act-Up, and a desperate fight for medication to combat a dreaded disease — that closer was mostly about Blanca's final triumph. Rodriguez almost has to win Sunday.

ACTOR, DRAMA

Sterling K. Brown ("This Is Us")

Jonathan Majors ("Lovecraft Country")

Josh O’Connor ("The Crown")

Regé-Jean Page ("Bridgerton")

Billy Porter ("Pose")

Matthew Rhys ("Perry Mason")

This category is a tossup in 2021, leaning to O'Connor. Majors was first-rate in "Lovecraft," but that series lost its mojo after a few episodes. Rhys is always good, but his "Perry Mason '' has been largely overlooked. "Bridgerton '' and Page were sensations, but soapy ones. Brown (who won in 2017) and Porter (in 2019) could surprise here, but don't place bets on it.

SHOULD WIN O'Connor.

O'Connor's Prince Charles wasn't exactly a crowd-pleaser but the performance was an award winner. Puckish, fussy, sour, aloof — and ultimately a cheater — O'Connor captured what the world has largely decided about Prince Charles, but he also created a human being: Vulnerable, shy, insecure, lost. This was a wonderful performance.

WILL WIN O'Connor

(See above.)

LIMITED SERIES

"I May Destroy You" (HBO)

"Mare of Easttown" (HBO)

"The Queen’s Gambit" (Netflix)

"The Underground Railroad" (Amazon Prime)

"WandaVision" (Disney+)

Could this be the best category of the 73rd Emmys? Could be. If not for Kate Winslet (nominated for lead actress in this category) "Mare of Easttown '' might be out of place. Otherwise, any of these could win.

SHOULD WIN "The Underground Railroad"

Mind if I quote from my own review? "'The Underground Railroad '' is often difficult to watch, at times impossible to watch, but at least there's beauty, power, and some first-rate performances, as compensation. It's a threnody to lost history, or forgotten history, and to people without recorded names, birthdays or resting places, and to those who passed through life — to borrow the poet's line — through a veil of tears. It's also, screenshot by screenshot, James Baldwin's observation that "you cannot lynch me … without becoming something monstrous yourselves …"

WILL WIN "I May Destroy You"

The Emmys seems to have waited years for this chance (in fact, "Destroy" aired in June, 2020.) It was the most critically acclaimed series of 2020, and after the Golden Globes snubbed it, that accelerated the long-overdue scrutiny of the Globes' methods and membership. (The Globes have since promised an overhaul.) The show's brilliant star and creator, Michaela Coel, will also be honored Sunday with a win for best actress in a limited series.