At least 305.7 million are in U.S., gov't says

The U.S. Census Bureau Monday estimated the nation's population to be between 305.7 million and 312.7 million, based on six decades of birth, death and Medicare enrollment records, and recent international migration data.

The estimate is not part of the 2010 Census but will be one gauge used to determine the accuracy of the Census numbers that are to be released starting later this month.

While the Census provides an official population count, the estimates offer "plausible assumptions" about the population, Census Bureau Director Robert Groves said at a Washington, D.C., news conference.

The estimates - reported only as national numbers with no state or regional breakdowns - assess the population by age, gender, two race groups (black and non-black), and Hispanics younger than 20. Racial information is limited because historical data isn't complete for other races and for Hispanics only goes back to 1990, officials said.

The 2000 Census national population totaled 281.4 million.

The Census is the only population count on which policy decisions are made, including apportionment of House of Representatives seats among the states and the distribution of about $400 billion in federal aid annually to state, local and tribal governments.

Seth Forman, chief planner for the Long Island Regional Planning Council, said the middle range of the population estimate for 2010 - 308 million - compared with the 2009 American Community Survey estimate of 307 million represented the smallest increase for any year since 2000. He wondered if that indicated a "slowing of international migration flow because of the recession."

William Frey, a demographer and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C., called the estimate "a scientific tool not meant to show something's different from the year before." But he agreed that "the biggest wild card is immigration."

Groves said this year's estimates were being released ahead of the Census for the first time "to emphasize it is independent of the 2010 Census." It is one of three data releases from the bureau this month, culminating with the 2010 Census state counts due no later than Dec. 31.