Big shopping day may give clue to LI's future

Shoppers Friday will be giving clues about the direction of Long Island's economy.

Despite the lure of free shipping offers and several weeks of earlier discounts both in stores and online, retailers are still expected to draw large crowds of shoppers to their pre-dawn Black Friday sales events, retail analysts said.

Though the annual sales marathon no longer looms as large as it once did - owing to Internet sales, mid-December discounts and retailers who now cut prices well before Thanksgiving - many continue to regard it as a bellwether.

"If Black Friday doesn't fare well, that's a big indication of consumers not showing up," said Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst at the NPD Group, a Port Washington market research firm. "If they do show up, it's a good sign and an indication of the consumer psyche and willingness to spend going forward."

That willingness means a lot on Long Island, where the economy is tied to consumption and retail much more so than the rest of the country because the average income and affluence are greater, as is discretionary spending, Cohen said. Nationally, consumer consumption accounts for two-thirds of the economic activity, but it's three-fourths for Long Island, he said.

On Long Island, "retail is extremely important. You could argue that it drives the economy," said Joel R. Evans, a professor at Hofstra University's Zarb Business School. "What they're all hoping is that this is the start of better times ahead. It's going to be an indication as to whether we're still heading in a positive direction."

Some local retailers have said their wish is to see holiday revenue increase by 10 to 20 percent this season. But retail analysts forecast far more modest rises - from 1 to 3.5 percent - for the holidays.

"We certainly think that business will be good," said Gregg Richard, president of P.C. Richard and Son. "It's still an exciting season because a lot of the prices have come down in electronics - digital cameras, flat-panel TVs, computers, iPods, camcorders. Those are the things that people want."

"Whether they buy them early, late or in the middle remains to be seen," he said. "But we certainly expect there to be a lot of excitement now through the holidays."

Also optimistic is Lynn Usher, owner of Einstein's Attic toy store in Northport, who said she expects sales to be up 20 percent.

Reasons for local optimism about the 2010 holiday shopping season include a brightening jobs picture - Nassau and Suffolk boasted 10,900 more private-sector jobs last month compared with a year ago. And inflation rates in the region have been low, Pearl Kamer, chief economist of the Long Island Association, said recently. "This may help stimulate holiday sales on Long Island during the upcoming holiday season," she said.

Some 48.9 percent of consumers surveyed said they intend to shop the day after Thanksgiving - the highest figure recorded in 20 years - and 75 percent of them said they want the early bird specials, said Britt Beemer, head of America's Research Group, a Charleston, S.C, market research firm. Long Island retail analysts said they anticipate that the crowds Friday will be greater than they were last year.

With no new "must have" item, retailers are enticing shoppers with deep discounts on electronics and toys, and many have continued the trend of pushing up Black Friday opening times by an hour or more, retail experts said.

Retailers have stretched out Black Friday by offering a steady stream of deals as much as three weeks before Friday, hoping to remain at the forefront of consumers' minds, they said. And while merchants want shoppers to come into their stores, many have been very aggressive in their promotions, offering sales online, often with free or discounted shipping.

Deep discounts are the main reason Nicole Daly, 29, of Floral Park, said she would brave the crowds and go shopping Friday for the first time on a Black Friday. Daly, a student and a mother of a 2-year-old boy, typically avoids crowds and does a lot of her shopping online. But having a child who enjoys "Toy Story" and Thomas the Tank Engine has changed the equation. She said on Wednesday that she was planning to be at the Toys "R" Us in New Hyde Park by 5 a.m.

"He [her son] is into expensive toys and he doesn't realize that Santa's broke," said Daly, who is studying to be a dietitian and whose husband is a construction worker. "Because of the economy, obviously, work is slow, so this is the year I'm going to do it. But next year, if it's a better financial situation, I'll be in bed."

Merchants have learned their lessons from the past two years, keeping tight control of their inventory and closing stores that are not performing well. While they are hoping to lure shoppers into the store to buy more than the advertised Black Friday deal items, they are aware that the consumer is very cautious, analysts said.

Evans said retailers will continue to court customers with discounts through December.

Friday "really represents the first massive shopping day between now and the holidays," he said. "There are going to be sales going on every single day."

Up to 138 million people said they were planning to shop Black Friday weekend, higher than the 134 million who said they intended to hit the stores last year, according to a preliminary Black Friday shopping survey conducted for the National Retail Federation. About 60 million of that number said they would definitely shop in stores, while another 78 million said they were waiting to see if the deals are worthwhile.

"I think retailers are nervous - and rightly so," said Barry Berman, a Hofstra University business professor and author of the soon-to-be-released book "Competing in Tough Times."

"The National Retail Federation says, in effect, that Christmas sales will be up 2.3 percent, comparable to the inflation rate. I think consumers are cautious and in a 'Do I really need this' mentality."

With Jennifer Maloney