New wrinkle for Suozzi, Gillen: Will Blakeman for governor campaign drive big GOP turnout in Nassau?

WASHINGTON — Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman’s emergence as the likely Republican nominee for governor will complicate the Long Island congressional reelection bids of swing-district Democrats Laura Gillen and Tom Suozzi.

The argument from Republicans and some nonpartisan analysts is that GOP voter turnout within Nassau County will be elevated and more energized with Blakeman’s expected perch atop the state ballot in November versus Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul.

As a result, this scenario goes, Gillen and Suozzi could have difficulty countering what could be a substantial local GOP get-out-the-vote surge, although Democrats in Nassau County still held a more than 71,000-voter enrollment advantage as of last month.

"This is his home county, so you would expect him to work hard to bring out vote for the Republican ticket in Nassau County," Jay Jacobs, the chairman of the state and Nassau County Democratic committees, said Monday of Blakeman.

"It will impact the congressional races," Jacobs conceded of the 2026 races. "I think we’ll be able to overcome it. But it certainly is an added factor in the races."

President Donald Trump on Saturday endorsed Blakeman for governor, after the decision Friday of North Country Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik to suspend her campaign.

Now, even before Republicans have formally chosen their nominees to run against swing-district Democrats Gillen and Suozzi, U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson’s political arm is proclaiming that the two Democrats should worry.

"Trump-endorsed Bruce Blakeman is a proven winner who will boost GOP turnout and will be a political nightmare for Suozzi and Gillen, whose districts are already shifting hard to the right and away from them," said Maureen O’Toole, a National Republican Congressional Committee spokeswoman.

A Gillen campaign spokeswoman on Monday responded that the freshman congresswoman "has a proven record of embracing bipartisanship to achieve results to lower the costs of living and improve public safety." She also noted that Blakeman endorsed Gillen in her 2017 campaign for Town of Hempstead supervisor and served as her deputy supervisor. "Her moderate approach, that prioritizes Long Islanders over politics, is why Rep. Gillen will be reelected in November."

A campaign aide for Suozzi, a former Nassau County executive, voiced similar confidence. "Everyone knows that Tom Suozzi works across the aisle in Congress to take on the affordability crisis, lower health care costs, fix the immigration mess and keep our communities safe," Kim Devlin, Suozzi’s senior campaign adviser, said. "That’s why he was able to win his district, even while Trump won it as well. People are sick of partisanship, and that’s why they will reelect Tom Suozzi."

New campaign factor

All sides agree the stakes in these two congressional races are high.

New York’s 4th Congressional District, held by Gillen, lies entirely within Nassau County, while the bulk of the 3rd district held by Suozzi is also located there, with a portion in Queens. Gillen’s seat in particular is among those viewed as the most competitive nationally, pivotal to which party will win control the narrowly divided 435-seat U.S. House.

Both lawmakers were already viewed by non-partisan handicappers as heading to competitive reelections in 2026 prior to Blakeman’s gubernatorial bid. Their districts were trending more purple in last year’s presidential race, with Trump carrying Suozzi’s district in November 2024. Gillen’s still went Democratic, for former Vice President Kamala Harris, but it did so narrowly and after former President Joe Biden carried it by more than 14 percentage points in 2020.

Add this to Blakeman’s coming off a strong reelection bid as county executive, winning in the county last month with nearly 56% of the vote in defeating Nassau County Legis. Seth Koslow. Republicans also won all four countywide offices and kept control of the county legislature and town governments.

Looking to 2026, veteran New York-based political consultant Hank Sheinkopf predicts, "Blakeman will roll up big numbers in New York City suburbs, spelling bad news for some Democrats." He also held out that, "suburban voters will worry more about (New York City mayor-elect Zohran) Mamdani than about Trump’s Washington."

Challenges for Republicans

At the same time, some observers echoed Jacobs in noting other factors that should temper Republican enthusiasm, including a potential midterm Trump backlash that could play out in the congressional races. They also say suburban voter anxiety over the election of Mamdani, a Democratic socialist, could have a shorter shelf life than Republicans might expect.

Jacobs pointed out that Blakeman had a significant money advantage in his reelection campaign against Koslow. Locally, Jacobs said, "you’re going to have a lot of money being spent by the two congressional campaigns to offset to whatever advantage his name being on the ballot will have."

Nassau County GOP Chairman Joseph Cairo has previously estimated the GOP spent $12 million "easily" on Blakeman’s contest, as well as on the district attorney and other county races.  His Democratic counterpart, Jacobs, on Monday put it closer to $13.5 million. Democrats spent about $3.5 million, in comparison, Jacobs said.

Jacob Rubashkin, with the non-partisan political handicapper Inside Elections, said. "Having Blakeman at the top of the ticket is certainly more problematic for Suozzi and Gillen than if it were Stefanik, given his relative strength in Nassau County."

But Rubashkin also notes that in 2022, Republican gubernatorial candidate Lee Zeldin — himself from Long Island — carried the current 3rd Congressional District against Hochul by 9 points and current 4th Congressional District by 5 points — but that the then-GOP winners of those two seats, former Reps. George Santos and Anthony D’Esposito, chalked up narrower victories.

"New York voters are still more willing to split their tickets between governor and House races," he said. "So even if Blakeman does win the third or fourth at the top of the ticket, it doesn’t guarantee a GOP win down ballot."