Blakeman's challenge: Few Long Island natives have ever run for governor, and none have succeeded

ALBANY — There has never been a New York governor from Long Island.

Well, depending on how you count Teddy Roosevelt. But put aside that debate for a minute.

Republicans and one Democrat have tried this century and come up short. Going back half a century, New Yorkers have seldom seen an Islander at the top of a major party ticket.

The reasons behind this are different for Republicans and Democrats, though enrollment mathematics explain most of it.

But it is a history that Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, who kicked off his campaign this week, will have to overcome if he is to occupy the Executive Mansion in Albany.

Blakeman appears headed for a Republican primary against Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) for the right to challenge Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul.

Hochul, of Buffalo, in 2021 became the first upstate governor in about a century, though it was under extraordinary circumstances — she ascended from lieutenant governor when Andrew M. Cuomo resigned while facing likely impeachment.

Besides Hochul, every Democratic governor has been New York City-based, going back to Franklin Roosevelt. Cuomo largely is thought of as city-based, though he was living in Westchester County for most of his time in office.

Political math

The lack of Long Island governors should be no surprise, political analysts said.

"I think it’s obvious on the Democratic side," Michael Dawidziak, a Suffolk County-based Republican strategist, said. "It’s a (New York) City-centric party. It’s where the base of the party has always been and that pretty much carries over today."

The five boroughs account for 3.3 million of the 6 million enrolled Democrats in the party. Given that, it’s hard to see a Democratic standard bearer emerging from somewhere else.

"Long Island doesn’t have the density, compared to the city," Lawrence Levy, dean of suburban studies at Hofstra University, said. "The only way a Democrat could win a gubernatorial primary is if three or four people from the city ran and cannibalized each other."

Congressman Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove) has tried twice — each time a quixotic fight against an entrenched Democratic rival.

In 2022, he sought to oust Hochul but finished last in a three-way primary with 13% of the vote. In 2006, he ran against then-Attorney General Eliot Spitzer — who was backed by every major party leader and group, it seemed — and garnered just 18%.

In Levy’s scenario, Suozzi would have needed a more open and crowded field with no clear favorite.

Republican attempts

On the Republican side, George Pataki has been the lone winner in a governor’s election since Nelson Rockefeller. Pataki, began as a Westchester County politician but was serving as a state senator from Putnam County when in 1994 he won the first of his three terms.

In 2022, then-Congressman Lee Zeldin of Suffolk County made a strong run against Hochul in November 2022, but lost 53% to 47%. Zeldin was the first Islander to head the GOP ticket since Perry Duryea, an assemblyman from Montauk, ran unsuccessfully in 1978 against incumbent Democrat Hugh Carey.

Besides Zeldin and Duryea, Republicans have backed a number of upstate and Westchester-based candidates for governor, along with an occasional city dweller (Lewis Lehrman in 1982). The reason, again, was math. Up until recently, the party’s strength clearly was upstate.

"Long Islanders have tried to get the nomination but have been overwhelmed by upstate candidates," Levy said.

For a recent example, in 2010, Suffolk County Executive Steve Levy and ex-Island Congressman Rick Lazio sought the party’s nod, which went to Carl Paladino of Buffalo, which was less about geography and more because the rank-and-file wanted the most conservative candidate on the ticket.

But the long trend of declining upstate population has shifted some of the balance, some say. Just in raw numbers, Nassau and Suffolk counties now account for a bigger slice (23%) of enrolled Republicans than in previous times.

"The influence of the upstate voters has declined because we’ve seen an exodus," Susan Del Percio, a Republican strategist, said. "It’s becoming more and more a downstate game."

Blakeman's pitch

Stefanik enters the election cycle with more formal endorsements from Republican leaders than Blakeman. She’s also been a big fundraiser for her congressional campaigns.

But Blakeman and his supporters note Stefanik has never had to win a tough election in her North Country district — which is 88% white and where Republicans outnumber Democrats by better than a 3-2 ratio.

In contrast, he now has won consecutive races in a place where Democrats outnumber Republicans and where the demographics look a lot more like the entire state. Add the huge Island population, and some Republicans think Blakeman has a better base to take on Hochul than Stefanik.

One wildcard for a primary or a general election is campaigns are different now than, say, three decades ago when ex-Sen. Alfonse D’Amato was the last Island Republican to win a statewide race.

"When I ran and won it was a much different political landscape — the same was true for Gov. Pataki," D’Amato told Newsday in a statement. "Our playbooks aren’t relevant now when you look at the intense polarization of political parties, the many combative issues, and the role of social media that is used to motivate your base."

Adding to the GOP challenge this year: History shows that the party that controls the White House usually fares poorly in "midterm" congressional election years, such as 2026. It happened to the Democrats in 2022 and Republicans in 2018.

Roosevelt's roots

Theodore Roosevelt was born and raised in New York City, ran for city mayor once and served as city police commissioner before he won the 1898 governor’s race. But he also had a "summer home" in Oyster Bay, beginning in 1885, according to the National Park Service.

Some say count him as Long Island, some don’t. For what it’s worth, the New York Red Book, the state’s political almanac, lists him as "Theodore Roosevelt ... Oyster Bay."

By Yancey Roy

yancey.roy@newsday.com@yanceyroy