Stefanik's exit still leaves many challenges for Blakeman in likely race against Hochul

ALBANY — Bruce Blakeman appears to have a clear path to be the Republican candidate for governor, after Rep. Elise Stefanik’s stunning decision to quit the race.

But big challenges remain for the Nassau County executive, even as they change in size and scope.

With Stefanik out of the picture, Blakeman can expect the Republican Party apparatus to rally behind him ahead of the GOP’s statewide convention in February. Party leaders already have begun switching their endorsements.

That should be the easy part.

The harder part, analysts and party leaders say, will be: launching from a fundraising hole against Democrat Gov. Kathy Hochul; raising his name recognition; balancing his play to the party’s MAGA/Trump bloc for money and field support while appealing to swing voters; figuring out a way to counter Democrats’ 2-1 enrollment advantage and bucking a midterm election forecast working against Republicans.

"His challenges are, well, big," Grant Reeher, a Syracuse University political scientist said Saturday. "It’s a real uphill climb for him, given the political realities of the state."

Backers said Blakeman, 70, is coming off a strong wave of local momentum. In a year where Republicans generally took a beating in New York, Nassau County was the outlier.

There, Blakeman cruised to a 12-point reelection victory over Democrat Seth Koslow.

"You look at Nassau County — it’s kind of a microcosm of New York State," Joe Cairo, Nassau County Republican chairman, said in an interview, citing Democrats’ enrollment advantage. "He did well with independent voters, even some Democrats crossed over. He ran better in some communities than" he did in 2021, Blakeman’s first win in a county executive race.

Campaign challenges

Name recognition is another issue. The latest Siena College poll found that 70% of New Yorkers who were surveyed had no idea who Blakeman is. The poll, taken in early December, said Hochul held a 19-point lead over Stefanik; 25 over Blakeman.

A longtime Republican strategist said name recognition isn’t a major concern.

"He’s got some catching up to do but I think he can close the gap pretty quickly," Michael Dawidziak, a GOP strategist, said. "When I’m on a campaign, I never worry about name recognition. When it comes time to vote, everyone will know who he is."

Money is another immediate challenge. Blakeman finished his county executive campaign with less than $1 million in his campaign coffers. Hochul has proven a formidable fundraiser — reporting $17.5 million in the bank as of June.

Republicans like to point out that their 2022 candidate, then-Long Island Congressman Lee Zeldin, faced a money disadvantage against Hochul but quickly caught up when polls showed the race tightening.

"The money will come now because (Blakeman) will be the Republican gubernatorial candidate," Cairo contended.

The best immediate factor for Blakeman is that he no longer faces having to raise and spend money on a primary, one analyst said.

"Blakeman is still a long shot in a Democratic state — but probably a shorter one now that he doesn’t need to go through the trauma of a primary," Lawrence Levy, dean of suburban studies at Hofstra University, said.

Unexpected exit

Stefanik’s departure caught the political world by surprise — especially considering she had amassed about $12 million in her congressional campaign chest and secured about two-thirds of the weighted vote from county chairmen at the upcoming GOP convention.

When Blakeman jumped into the race, he didn’t vow to run a primary no matter what against Stefanik, a source close to the campaign said. The plan was to test his ability to raise money and support ahead of the convention, then make a decision, the source said.

Stefanik, 41, cited family priorities and security as reasons to drop the race, while also saying a primary wouldn’t be an effective use of her time and resources. But analysts said Friday she probably had expected a clear path to the Republican nomination and changed her mind after President Donald Trump signaled he wouldn’t force Blakeman out.

Now, Blakeman, as the party’s lone remaining candidate, will shift focus, analysts said.

"It will be interesting to see how and how quickly Blakeman starts pivoting toward the middle, securing the MAGA base and building bridges to more moderate voters," Levy said.

Hochul already had been playing up Blakeman as an "ultra MAGA lackey," which could be effective in a state where Trump’s poll numbers are bad. Blakeman will have to appeal to moderates but not ignore the Trump base if he is to get national help, one analyst said.

"He will need the Trump infrastructure and money," Susan Del Percio, a Republican strategist said. She said it’s not impossible that a new, wealthy "self-funded" GOP candidate emerges, but time is short before the party convention.

A risk for Blakeman, she said, is that congressional races could attract more money and attention from big donors than a New York governor’s race, depending on how the election cycle sorts out.

Another challenge will be the 2025 election trends upstate, tied to Trump’s unpopularity in New York, Reeher said.

Outside of Nassau, Republicans posted shocking losses in Syracuse, Rochester and Saratoga County. In Syracuse, Dems flipped control of the county legislature for the first time in decades.

"When you see a county legislature flip from R to D for the first time in several generations, that speaks volumes," Reeher said. "There weren’t any particular local issues hurting Republicans. It was more a reaction to the national" political scene.

Vulnerabilities for Hochul

That said, he noted that Hochul’s favorability ratings remain mediocre — 43% in the Siena poll — which could leave her vulnerable. A primary also could hurt her. Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado is seeking to challenge Hochul in a Democratic primary, hoping an alliance with the party’s left can deliver a long shot upset — although right now there is no guarantee he’ll qualify for the ballot.

Jesse Garcia, the Suffolk County Republican Chairman, said Blakeman’s campaigns focusing on public safety provide a good platform of issues to run statewide, as has "being someone who has won in a large county."

"He has a record that conservatives like but that also has been accepted by moderates," Garcia said. "Voters respond to him."

The Suffolk leader said the key now is "building an infrastructure for a statewide campaign." In this regard, Garcia said Long Island — home of 23% of enrolled GOP voters and two of the "most organized county committees in the state" will be a huge boost.

"Building a campaign infrastructure, using and partnering with the state committee and county committees to put boots on the ground and really connecting with voters" is crucial, Garcia said. "It means getting into those communities and building coalitions."

By Yancey Roy

yancey.roy@newsday.com@yanceyroy