Analysts: Gas tax cap rollback falls short

A Suffolk budget amendment to save towns from having to foot tuition bills for local students at out-of-county community colleges hit a major snag Tuesday.

Legislative budget analysts told the county legislature's budget committee that a rollback of a gasoline tax cap won't generate enough revenue to cover the towns' tuition costs.

Robert Lipp, deputy director of budget review, said that analysts' initial forecast of $12.3 million in revenue from the rollback was based on retail gasoline prices going to $4 a gallon for all of 2012.

Later in the day, his office issued a memo saying that based on the October price of $3.75 a gallon, the rollback would generate about $8.5 million for a full year. But because the rollback would not kick in until March 1, analysts expect it to generate only $6.9 million next year, short of the $10.3 million needed to save the towns from footing the tuition bill.

The memo came after Lipp had indicated earlier to the committee that only $3 million would be generated next year if prices were around $3.50 a gallon.

That had prompted several lawmakers to worry that the budget amendment -- if revenue fail to materialize -- would create a major new budget shortfall. "The $12 million is fiction," said Legis. Jay Schneiderman (I-Montauk), who originally voted for the measure. "I cannot support a veto override that creates another hole."

Lipp said his office based its forecast on the volatility of oil markets and the trend of continually rising gasoline prices, but conceded the lawmakers have "a legitimate concern" about a potential shortfall.

In his proposed $2.7 billion 2012 budget, County Executive Steve Levy proposed shifting the tuition cost to towns, as Nassau has already done and is allowed under state law. Levy said the new estimate proves legislative budget analysts have "no credibility."

Levy has justified the shift, saying it more fairly allocates the cost to towns that send more local students to out-of-county community colleges. Suffolk pays out far more than it brings in because many local students attend Nassau Community College and the Fashion Institute of Technology in Manhattan, which also has bachelor's and graduate programs, and costs as much as $10,980 a year, more than double local tuition.