Warmer LI water temps may feed Earl's power

Warmer than average Atlantic Ocean water temperatures off New Jersey and Long Island could be to Hurricane Earl what spinach was to Popeye.

The ocean could feed the storm and could keep it strong, forecasters said.

"The [water] temperatures have been a bit above normal," meteorologist Rex Hervey of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Data Buoy Center said Thursday, "and, as you know, hurricanes tend to feed off warm water. I wouldn't say that the warm water temperatures will increase the strength of the storm - but they might keep the strength up and keep [the storm] from weakening as fast as had been anticipated."

Data recorded by the buoy center` at the Stennis Space Center near Slidell, La., indicates that water temperatures along the East Coast are "a couple of degrees" above the normal averages for this time of year, Hervey said.

The water temperature at buoy 44025 south of Jones Beach Inlet is 72.5 degrees, off the Hamptons it's 71.4 degrees and at the entrance to New York Harbor it's 75 degrees. Off Atlantic City, N.J., it's 75.6 degrees.

All of that could play a role in whether Earl loses or maintains strength as it heads northward, Hervey said.

Earl has already surprised forecasters. It went from being a Category 4 storm, with sustained winds of between 131 and 155 mph Wednesday down to a Category 3 storm - with winds of between 111 and 130 mph. Then, Earl regained strength - and again became a Category 4 storm overnight, with winds averaging about 145 mph.

"It's a big storm, it's got a lot of wind wrapped around it," Hervey said, "and it's already had some surprises . . . I think that [regaining strength] was kind of unexpected."

Forecasters at the National Weather Service in Upton have suggested that Earl will weaken overnight into Friday and they also believe it will remain far enough to our east so that its most-damaging winds and rains will stay offshore.

However, the weather service has issued a tropical storm warning for Suffolk and tropical storm watch for Nassau.

"Even though it [the water] is still warm, the hurricane should weaken as it moves toward us," forecaster Matt Scalora said.

Scalora was quick to add: "It's not often you have a Category 4 hurricane off the East Coast moving this far north."

How Earl will respond remains to be seen. It's still off the Carolinas as of late Thursday morning and won't affect Long Island until midday Friday.

"It only takes a slight change in track - and that could change the results on land," Hervey said. "It happens."